Indianapolis Colts vs. Detroit Lions 
I like the Detroit Lions in this spot for of a number of reasons. For starters, when you look at the desperation factor, it’s hard to side with the Colts because they are in a pretty good space at 7-4 – in fifth place in the AFC, one game ahead of the Ben Roethlisberger-less Pittsburgh Steelers – while the Lions are in desperate need of wins. The Lions should be dead in the water at 4-7, but considering the last wild card team in the NFC is Seattle at 6-5, anything can still happen. 
The Colts have been noticeably weaker on the road this season, having been blowout by New England, New York (Jets) and Chicago. Their two road wins came in Jacksonville and in Tennessee. The real difference is quarterback Andrew Luck, who has nine touchdowns, just three interceptions and one fumble lost at home compared to four touchdowns, 10 interceptions and four fumbles lost on the road. 
The Lions have extra time to prepare and should play like their season is on the line. Lay the points. 
Pick: Lions -4.5 at Bodog ---