Baltimore Ravens vs. Washington Redskins
I’m just not quite sure that these two teams are on the same level, which is essentially what this point spread says. The Ravens are coming off a discouraging loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers but we are still talking about a team that’s 9-3. The Redskins are not even above .500.
The main concern I have with Baltimore on the road is that their offense tends to stall. They have averaged just 16.5 points per game on the road compared to the 34 points per game they average at home.
However, the Redskins defense has been brutal all season long and I expect that to be the difference in this game. They allowed nearly 29 points per game through the first nine weeks of the season and while they’ve been a little better the last three weeks against NFC East rivals, I think Baltimore has enough weapons to exploit them. Look for Ray Rice to have a big game and the Ravens to get the win.
NFL Pick: Ravens -1 at TheGreek +++
St. Louis Rams vs. Buffalo Bills
Since scoring 23 points on the road in Detroit in Week 1, the St. Louis Rams have averaged just 18.8 points per game on the road. This is a team with some serious offensive deficiencies that continue to be exacerbated when they are on the road.
Last week, the Rams did get the win but their only touchdown came on a fluky last-second fumble recovery by the defense. It’s not as if the offense did much. Even with overtime, the Rams finished with just 293 total yards.
Buffalo is by no means a stalwart but they should be in good position to get a win. They are hosting a team that normally plays indoors and they should have some cold weather and/or elements factoring as well. They are used to it and the Rams are not.
Also, the Bills have won two of their last three, so they have some momentum going and they genuinely believe they are still in playoff contention – if you can believe that. It’s not completely far-fetched when you consider they have the Rams this week, they host the Seahawks next week, visit Miami in Week 16 and host the New York Jets in Week 17. It’s definitely putting the applecart before the carriage here but if the Bills can finish 9-7, they’ll be in contention.
This week, we’ll also see Ryan Fitzpatrick going up against his former team. That might spur on one of his better efforts.
With no pressure on the Bills in this spot, they are more than capable of getting the job done as a modest three-point favorite at home.
NFL Pick: Bills -3 at Bodog ---
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings are in nose-dive mode and it’s hard to back them when you’re getting no points. Strictly from a value perspective, there is none backing the Vikings – even at home – so the obvious choice is to go against them.
As mentioned in a previous article, when you start looking back at the Vikings resume for 2012, one thing becomes clear: they haven’t beaten many good teams. The Vikings have wins over the Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions (twice), Tennessee Titans, Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers. In other words, they have one quality win. Against elite teams, they’ve been pumped. They allowed 23 to Indianapolis in Week 2, 38 to Washington, 36 to Tampa Bay, 30 to Seattle, 28 to Chicago and 23 to Green Bay. They’ve now lost five of seven and are in decline.
Quarterback Christian Ponder has been a trainwreck for the Vikings has he has averaged just 145 passing yards per game over the last six weeks with a 55% completion percentage. As long as the Bears can stop Adrian Peterson, they should be able to get this win.
NFL Pick: Bears -1 at Bovada ---
Chargers vs. Steelers Picks
The San Diego Chargers have lost four straight and seven of their last eight, and have clearly quit on the season. They’ll be in tough at Heinz Field on Sunday.
Record: 0-1
The Chargers can win because:
The Steelers have a dicey quarterback situation. Yes, Ben Roethlisberger is expected back but nobody is quite certain that he’s 100%. As a matter of fact, it’s quite likely that he’s not even close.
The Steelers feel lucky that they got away with a win last week in Baltimore with Charlie Batch as their starter and they don’t want to risk it again. San Diego must test out Roethlisberger with a couple of tough hits early on and see exactly where he’s at.
The Steelers can win because:
The Chargers are absolutely brutal right now. San Diego has lost four straight and seven of their last eight. If you look at the teams they’ve beaten this year – Kansas City (twice), Oakland and Tennessee – you get the clear picture that the Chargers are not a very good team.
On top of that, the Chargers could be without three starters on their offensive line on Sunday and they are likely to be using practice squad players. That’s a recipe for disaster when facing Dick LeBeau’s defense especially when you consider that Philip Rivers has been sacked 14 times in the last three games.
Even when everyone is healthy, though, it’s not as if San Diego is playing well. They didn’t score an offensive touchdown against Cincinnati at home last week and have a total of three in the last three weeks. Their running game is pathetic, averaging a measly 95 yards per game (26th in the NFL) and have scored just four rushing touchdowns. That’s one better than the worst in the NFL.
In the past, the Chargers at least had a good passing game to lean on but that’s not even the case anymore. Since the start of October, Rivers has just 12 touchdowns, 11 interceptions and two fumbles lost. The Chargers are just 18th in passing offense.
When you start doing the math, it’s tough to see the Chargers winning. As long as the Steelers don’t self-destruct in any way, this game is theirs to win by whatever margin they choose.
Outlook & NFL Football Betting Prediction:
There’s really no reason to like the Chargers in this spot. They’ve quit on the season and even when they were trying, they weren’t very good. They know that their head coach is a goner along with the general manager, and that many more personnel changes are on the way. This isn’t a group that’s going to grow tighter over the final weeks of the season; they are going to come further apart.
That being said, a road trip to Pittsburgh isn’t what the doctor ordered. The Chargers couldn’t score an offensive touchdown at home against the Bengals last week and their prospects don’t look good against a Steelers team that really needs a win. Although the line is off the board in most places, Bwin has the spread at six and I’ll lay the points.
NFL Football Picks: Steelers -6 at Betonline ---
The Colts are coming off an emotional win and might not be taking the Titans seriously. The Colts traveled to Detroit last week and won on literally the last play of the game. It took a full team effort to get the job done, and they might be a little drained after that. It might be tough for them to get up for this game.
Titans vs. Colts: NFL Picks
The Titans can win because…
The Colts are coming off an emotional win and might not be taking the Titans seriously. The Colts traveled to Detroit last week and won on literally the last play of the game. It took a full team effort to get the job done, and they might be a little drained after that. It might be tough for them to get up for this game.
The first game between these two went into overtime, and while the Colts won, it was still a very close game. Running back Chris Johnson finished with 99 rushing yards, and whenever he’s at the 100-yard mark, the Titans are positioned to win. The Colts defense is on the weak side (as evidenced by the 33 points they gave up to Detroit last week), and their run defense is particularly frail. They are ranked 22nd in the NFL, giving up 122.6 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry. Only five teams have allowed more than the 12 rushing touchdowns they’ve given up this season.
If the Titans can run the ball, take some pressure off of Jake Locker, they’ll have a chance to cover and win.
The Colts can win because…
The Titans are absolute trash. Yes, the Titans did register an impressive 37-3 win in Miami a few weeks ago, but other than that, they’ve been a trainwreck. They’ve lost four of five, and it’s even hard to make the case that they’ve been in those losses. The Chicago Bears blew them out 51-20, the Jacksonville Jaguars were in control from start to finish in their 24-19 win and last week, the Houston Texans were never threatened in a 24-10 win.
The Titans have issues all over the place; their defense, for instance, is brutal. Aside from shutting down the Dolphins, the Titans have given up 32.4 points per game. They can’t stop anyone these days, and the problem is that their offense isn’t good enough to catch up. Johnson is no longer an elite back while Jake Locker is absolutely brutal at quarterback. He has five interceptions in the last two weeks and has completed less than 50% of his passes in two of his last three games.
The Colts are playing with plenty of confidence these days, having won six of seven. They might not match up well against the elite teams in the league, but they are more than capable of beating a sub-.500 team at home.
Outlook & NFL Football Betting Prediction:
NFL odds makers currently list Indy as -5 favorites. The total has dropped a point and a half to 47.5.
The Colts are a good team at home as they are 5-1 in front of their own audience. Furthermore, Andrew Luck plays noticeably better at home (86.1 QB rating) than he does away (66.6 QB rating).
However, while the Colts should win this game, this is still a division rivalry and the Colts are coming off an emotional win. Look for them to win but the Titans to cover.
Pick: Titans +5 +++
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