By: David Lawrence
The Cleveland Browns will visit the Dallas Cowboys in Week 11 in what once again looks like a gimme for the Cowboys. I wouldn’t assume anything here as the Cowboys didn’t impress me last week in Philadelphia, and while it looks as if they impressed the NFL odds makers, I don’t think they deserve to be favored by this many points (although I understand why that’s the case).
I think the public will be all over the New Orleans Saints with me in this spot, but it’s hard to go against the grain. I would caution that while the Saints have won four of five, their opponent has had a chance to win and/or cover at the end of each contest in three of the four wins. They aren’t exactly running away with wins and more so, they have still had to climb out of holes. At the same time, Oakland is going to be bringing one of their better efforts given that they were embarrassed last week. There’s also the fact that the Saints are an indoors team traveling west to play outdoors.
Where do we think that the best value lies on the Week 11 odds boards for your NFL picks? Find out which games we are jumping on early, as we know that the value can vanish quickly. Are more upsets on the way?
Last week’s value plays came in with a win (Seahawks) and a loss (Lions) with the Monday night affair (Chiefs with the points) pending.
Let’s have a look at the odds for Week 11 to see if we can gather some winners to add to ourNFL picks this weekend.
Cleveland Browns vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Cleveland Browns will visit the Dallas Cowboys in Week 11 in what once again looks like a gimme for the Cowboys. I wouldn’t assume anything here as the Cowboys didn’t impress me last week in Philadelphia, and while it looks as if they impressed the NFL odds makers, I don’t think they deserve to be favored by this many points (although I understand why that’s the case).
Looking back to Dallas’ “get well” win over Philadelphia, the Cowboys had just 294 yards of total offense. Even as the Eagles played without starting quarterback Mike Vick for most of the game, the Cowboys still found themselves in a 17-17 deadlock into the fourth quarter. Their offense didn’t rescue them; it was the special teams and defense that combined for their final three touchdowns of the game.
The Browns are not great but they’ve been competitive this year. They have won two of their last four and played Baltimore and Indianapolis very tight in those losses. They are coming off a bye week and should be able to compete once again as they visit Dallas, who doesn’t play particularly well at home. Take the Browns.
NFL Pick: Browns +8 at Pinnacle +++
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Baltimore Ravens have played the Pittsburgh Steelers very tough in the John Harbaugh era and I expect the same thing on Sunday. Although it’s not a huge amount of value with Baltimore in this spot, I do foresee there being a little bit as they are a 3.5-point underdog. Anything under three points and I wouldn’t be with the Ravens.
Much has been made of the Ravens injuries to Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb, and while those are crucial, it’s not as if the Steelers have been the epitome of health either. Pittsburgh has really struggled to pressure the quarterback or create turnovers this season, and if Joe Flacco has time to make decisions, he is going to find his receivers.
These are two division rivals who play each other very tough. Pittsburgh does have the home-field advantage but Baltimore hasn’t lost to Pittsburgh by more than three in any of the last seven regular season meetings. That half-point could prove to be very valuable.
NFL Pick: Ravens +3.5 at TheGreek +++
New Orleans Saints vs. Oakland Raiders
I think the public will be all over the New Orleans Saints with me in this spot, but it’s hard to go against the grain. I would caution that while the Saints have won four of five, their opponent has had a chance to win and/or cover at the end of each contest in three of the four wins. They aren’t exactly running away with wins and more so, they have still had to climb out of holes. At the same time, Oakland is going to be bringing one of their better efforts given that they were embarrassed last week. There’s also the fact that the Saints are an indoors team traveling west to play outdoors.
However, I just don’t think the Raiders are very good. They’re not even respectable.
The Raiders have won two of their four home games, but one was a lucky overtime win over Jacksonville. They also have home losses to San Diego and Tampa Bay; not exactly Super Bowl contenders.
They’ll likely be without a number of running backs as Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson are banged up. The passing game can be effective but Carson Palmer is good for at least one turnover (seven in the last five weeks).
Defense figures to be the biggest concern for the Raiders as they’ve given up 97 points in the last two weeks. As long as the Saints stay committed to the run and play with some offensive balance, they should win this game. I would wait and see if there is any movement in the Week 11 NFL odds, as this line could fall some more (it opened at 6.5) but in any case, I’ll take a shot with the Saints to cover.
NFL Pick: Saints -4.5 at TheGreek +++
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