By: Willie Bee
San Francisco screwed the pooch and made me work one more day on this NLDS with an 8-5 victory in Game 4 on Wednesday to knot things up.
Mathew A. Latos has been pretty good vs. the Giants over his career. Dude has a sub-2 ERA against San Fran in his last 14 outings (94 IP, 14 G). All of those 14 appearances are starts except the last one, which was Game 1 of this set. The 1.91 ER has only resulted in an 8-6 record for his clubs, San Diego andCincinnati , counting last Saturday when he made the one relief showing.
The San Francisco Giants look to cap an incredible comeback in Game 5 on Thursday after trailing the Cincinnati Reds 2-0 to begin this NLCS. Matt Cain and Mat Latos oppose each other on the hill in this decisive game, and SBR has a preview and a play on the contest.
Matt or Mat. That is your choice for a decisive Game 5 of the NLDS between the San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds. Audience, please lock in your answers now by toggling to the bottom of the screen and entering either 'matt' or 'mat' in the viewer comments section.
In addition to the political and psychological data being collected, SBR is also conducting a little gambling research and wants to know if you think the Giants will complete an amazing comeback, or the Reds rebound to avoid a collapse of the ages.
Matt Cain vs. Mat Latos is the starting pitching matchup, if you haven't already guessed that, and it's Latos who is the home favorite at -120 to -125 on the morning MLB odds. The take-back on Cain and the Giants is in the low +110s, and a 7 run total is generally priced at -115 on the OVER.
The Giants finally found some life in their bats after scoring just four runs and batting a collective .126 through the first three games. Meanwhile, Dusty Baker's club seemed to be lost at the plate and swinging from the heels. Mike Leake took the loss when pressed into emergency duty in place of the injured Johnny Cueto, and Jose Arredondo threw gas on the San Francisco fire with his short relief outing that saw a 5-3 score balloon out of control. The pressure is squarely onCincinnati in Game 5.
Latos A Bit Unlucky Vs. Giants
Mathew A. Latos has been pretty good vs. the Giants over his career. Dude has a sub-2 ERA against San Fran in his last 14 outings (94 IP, 14 G). All of those 14 appearances are starts except the last one, which was Game 1 of this set. The 1.91 ER has only resulted in an 8-6 record for his clubs,
Latos was also a bit unfortunate in his 19 starts at home in 2012, no-decisioning in eight of the games despite a fine 3.18 ERA. But Latos backers were indeed happy with seven of those eight going into the win column for an overall 15-4 record at Great American Ball Park
Cain fell victim to the long ball in the series opening setback, and the result was his third loss against the Reds this season. The righty also served up a pair of homers in both of his two regular season assignments vs. Cincy, giving him six in three collisions with the Reds this year. Cain closed the regular season campaign by allowing just six home runs in last 13 starts combined.
Gettin' Your Freak On From The Pen
Tim Lincecum was the real hero in Game 4, lifting the Giants with a solid relief effort when it was obvious starter Barry Zito didn't have it. Lincecum's 55-pitch, 4.1 inning day's work also saved the bullpen for Bruce Bochy to employ today. The only two arms that won't be at Bochy's disposal at Lincecum and quite possibly Santiago Casilla who has thrown 44 pitches combined the past two days. If Casilla is summoned, it won't be for more than a batter or 5-10 pitches.
Baker will also have his primary setup/closing trio of Sean Marshall, Jonathan Broxton and Aroldis Chapman rested and ready to go. It has been a recipe for success this season for the Reds, and both managers will have the luxury of shortening today's game to five innings.
The question is which team will have the lead by the fifth or sixth inning to allow either Baker or Bochy to turn to their relief corps. The road underdog is a perfect 4-0 in this series, and the Giants were 5-1 this season when Cain was drawing plus-odds. Despite that, I'm going to add the Reds to my MLB picks today, as I believe that they will avoid being swept out of the playoffs in their own park and beat Cain a fourth time this year.
MLB pick: Reds -125 ---
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