11.10.2012 Baseball Picks: Cardinals vs. Nationals Game 4

The St. Louis Cardinals are a win away from a second consecutive NLCS appearance, and they'll send Kyle Lohse to the hill to clinch it on Thursday.  Ross Detwiler makes his postseason debut as the Nationals hope to force a Game 5 in the NLDS.

Cardinals at Nationals

Thursday, Oct. 11 -- 4:07 PM (ET) TBS

Nationals Park, Washington DC

We've seen some amazing comebacks in DC before.  Take Marion Barry, for example. 

That isn't to imply this Washington Nationals team is a bunch of crooked, crack-smoking politicians that somehow keep getting elected.  Indeed, they are a very talented baseball team full of rising stars, and it was merely an example of the sort of amazing comeback they'll need against the St. Louis Cardinals, a comeback that must be ignited Thursday in Game 4. 

A seventh NLCS appearance since the start of the new millennium appears to be in the cards for St. Louis after breezing to an 8-0 win in Game 3 on Wednesday.  The Cardinals can finish things up in today's matinee with Kyle Lohse on the mound as ever so slight chalk.  We'll call it -110 for ease of conversation.  The Nats counter with Ross Detwiler, and SBR odds is showing 8 runs for the total.

St. Louis is a fielding gaffe away from having already swept this series, and has been emphatic in taking the last two games by a combined 20-4.  The error was by rookie Pete Kozma in Sunday's series opener, extending the inning in which Washington managed to score a couple of unearned runs for the 3-2 triumph.  Kozma got even on Wednesday with a 3-run homer that propelled the Cards to a 4-0 lead.  Chris Carpenter and the bullpen took care of the rest.

Detwiler Makes Playoff Debut, Lohse Seeks Second Postseason Dubya 

We also should remember that Detwiler finally faced his boyhood team in his last assignment of this season, and it wasn't pretty.  The lanky southpaw was hammered for seven runs (3 earned) before he could get the second out in the third. Let's not forget that Washington was expecting Detwiler to handle situations like this when the Nats made him the sixth overall pick out ofMissouri State in 2007.  The irony, of course, is that he's a St. Louis native and will have the added pressure of his first playoff appearance coming against the team he grew up rooting for. 

Lohse, meanwhile, finally got a monkey off his back last Friday in Atlanta where he recorded his first postseason victory to send the Cardinals into the NLCS.  That winless string began back in '02 when he was a reliever for the Twins, continued with the Phillies in 2007 and into three playoff starts with ugly results last October for St. Louis. 

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SIDE

MONEY LINE

TOTAL

SCORE

ST. LOUIS

WASHINGTON

• -1½ +160
• -107
• o8 +100

• +1½ -170
• -103
• u8 -110

• -1½ +155
• -105
• o8 -105

• +1½ -175
• -105
• u8 -115

• -1½ +145
• -118
• o8 -110

• +1½ -175
• -102
• u8 -120

• -1½ +155
• -106
• o8 +100

• +1½ -172
• +100
• u8 -110

-

-

Nats Need Bats To Bust Loose On Cardinal Hurlers 

A case of bad hitting or good pitching, you be the judge.  Probably a little of both up to now, but it's easy to point to the Washington lineup as the biggest culprit.  Reviewing their scoring, seven runs have crossed the plate, two of them unearned and two more on back-to-back solo jacks by Ryan Zimmerman and Adam LaRoche.  Zimmerman and Ian Desmond have done their job, but LaRoche, Bryce Harper, Danny Espinosa, Michel Morse and Jayson Werth are a combined 9-for-59 (.152 avg) with 19 strikeouts. 

Those arms on the Archway City side have something to do with it, especially the ones in the bullpen.  Manager Mike Matheny has a six-pack at his disposal (Motte, Boggs, Salas, Rzepczynski, Kelly and Rosenthal) that has been summoned a combined 12 times up to now and yet to be charged with an earned run. 

Davey Johnson has always rated high on my list, and I would love to see him take this Nationals club all the way.  Maybe he'll have that opportunity next year when Washington isn't hamstrung without the services of ace Stephen Strasburg.  My baseball pick today will be on the Cardinals to wrap this series up in Game 4.

My MLB pick: Cardinals -110 ---