вторник, 11 декабря 2012 г.

11.12.2012 NBA Pick: Pistons +5½ at home over Denver Nuggets


The Denver Nuggets have lost five of their last six road games while turning the ball over too much and blowing some nice leads. That makes them vulnerable in Detroit Tuesday.
The road favorite looks to be a bit shaky Tuesday night as the Denver Nuggets (10-11, 5-10 away) pay a visit to the Detroit Pistons (7-16, 5-5 home) at The Palace of Auburn Hills in Detroit, MI at 7:35 ET.

The point spread at 5 Dimes has Detroit as a home underdog for this contest at a current line of +5½ at odds of -106.

Rodney StuckeyThe Denver Nuggets were expected by most to be a Western Conference playoff team this year and even to possibly make a run at the Oklahoma City Thunder for the Northwest Division title. Well, the latter now seems unlikely and even the former could be in peril if the Nuggets do not improve their play on the road. 

Denver has done what it has had to do at home going 5-1, but the Nuggets have now dropped five of their last six road games to fall to just  5-10 away from the altitude, which now leaves them under .500 overall at 10-11. This is from a team that finished over .500 on the road at 18-15 in the strike shortened season of a year ago. 

The latest defeat came vs. the New York Knicks 112-106 at Madison Square Garden Sunday where the Nuggets actually shot 55.6 percent from the floor (40-for-72) but were done in by 16 turnovers. That would be excusable if it was an aberration, but sadly turning the ball over is starting to become a way for life for Denver, ranking 29th in the NBA with 16.9 turnovers per game. 

The Nuggets had an eight-point lead in the fourth quarter vs. the Knicks, marking the third time in the team’s last five road losses that it blew a lead of eight points or more. Furthermore, the only Denver win in the last six road contests was hardly a riveting one as it squeaked out a 92-89 decision over the Indiana Pacers, a winning margin that would not be good enough to cover tonight’s point spread. 

Denver ranks ninth in the NBA in scoring at 100.7 points per game overall, but it is actually getting slightly outscored because the defense ranks 26th allowing 101.0 points per contest. Furthermore, the Nuggets have been outscored by an average of -4.4 points on the road. We simply cannot trust Denver as a decided road favorite right now regardless of the opponent.

The Pistons are coming off of a 104-97 loss at Philadelphia to the 76ers last night where they led 49-46 at the half and trailed by only one point entering the fourth quarter. Detroit has been much more competitive since an 0-8 start this season though, in fact going 5-2 straight up in its last seven home games to even its home ledger after beginning the season 0-3 at Auburn Hills. 

The Nuggets snapped a 14-game losing streak in this building the last time they visited Motown last year. Now they may or may not begin a new losing streak in Detroit here, but in any event we look for the Pistons to stick close right until the final buzzer on Tuesday.


NBA Pick: Pistons +5½ (-106)

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