The 2012-13 NBA season begins on November 1, and we have noticed that certain teams have continued the same November total trends from year to year regardless of personnel changes due to consistent coaching philosophies.
We are now less than one month removed for the beginning of the 2012-13 NBA season on November 1st, and for those of you daunted by making NBA picks over the first month of the season, a look at each team’s total pattern during the month of November in recent seasons is a nice place to start.
Obviously, teams have different personnel from year to year, but those teams oftentimes have the same coaching philosophies every year, either because of the longevity of the coaches themselves or of upper management, which would continue to hire coaches that run the style that management wants. Thus, this has a direct impact on totals, as the same teams that play run-and-gun styles continually go ‘over’ in November and defensive minded teams go ‘under’.
Now, we are well aware that there was no November basketball in the NBA last season due to the lockout, and less preseason training changed the entire dynamic of the season. Teams with new personnel did not have adequate time to work the new players in those teams’ system and also having back-to-back-to back games on the schedule affected the teams’ play. Thus, we have ignored last year and all these trends are strictly for November games from 2000 to 2010.
You will note that three of the four November trends we are about to present are for conference games only, as the better familiarity teams have with these opponents makes it easier for ‘over’ teams to attack weaknesses and gives ‘under’ teams a better idea of how to make stops. Note that all Total records are based on the closing odds at Pinnacle Sports.
Play the ‘over’ in all Oklahoma City Thunder November conference games (62-34-1, 64.6%): Does this really come as a surprise? The Thunder have been a running team for years and they have the pre-eminent scorer in the NBA in Kevin Durant. Their coach Scott Brooks could talk all he wants about Oklahoma City’s improved defense being the reason that the Thunder reached the NBA Finals last year, but they never would have been there if Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden did not combine to score 67.8 points per game, no matter how well the defense played. Another tendency for this franchise is that the defense usually gets better as the year goes on, meaning that games are generally higher scoring in November.
Play the ‘under’ in all Houston Rockets November conference games (68-43-1, 61.2%):The Rockets have had a difficult time finding an identity with so many personnel changes over the years, and thus this team has been the exact opposite of the Thunder in that the offense has been behind the defense early in the year while trying to get so many new parts to gel. Even last year when the Rockets finished ninth in the NBA in scoring, it took a while for the team to mesh with the ‘under’ going 10-7 overall in the season’s first 30 days. The team has quite a few new parts this year also, most notably with Jeremy Lin brought in to be the starting point guard in a questionable move. Thus look for the offense to struggle early and for the ‘under’ to continue to thrive.
Play the ‘under’ in all Miami Heat November conference games (60-39-2, 60.6%): TheHeat are the defending NBA Champions, and while the scoring of LeBron James and Dwayne Wade get most of the publicity, this has always been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. In fact, Miami finished fourth over the entire season in scoring defense last year, allowing only 92.5 points per game. Yes, this team has a well deserved reputation for being lazy during the regular season, and it would probably lead the league in defense every year if it gave an all-out effort every night. As it is though, the November ‘under’ record shows that this team is so good defensively that it can still shut teams down with less than a 100 percent effort.
Play the ‘over’ in all Milwaukee Bucks November games (89-62-1, 58.9%): This is the only trend we are presenting that applies to all November games and not only conference games. TheBucks were surprising contender to make the NBA Playoffs late in the year last season, considering that the Milwaukee defense surrendered 98.7 points per game. The Bucks could score though, and remember that Brandon Jennings missed some time last year and Monta Ellis was not acquired until midseason. The Bucks should be good offensively to begin this season and this is an organization that has made defense an afterthought over the years.
Obviously, teams have different personnel from year to year, but those teams oftentimes have the same coaching philosophies every year, either because of the longevity of the coaches themselves or of upper management, which would continue to hire coaches that run the style that management wants. Thus, this has a direct impact on totals, as the same teams that play run-and-gun styles continually go ‘over’ in November and defensive minded teams go ‘under’.Now, we are well aware that there was no November basketball in the NBA last season due to the lockout, and less preseason training changed the entire dynamic of the season. Teams with new personnel did not have adequate time to work the new players in those teams’ system and also having back-to-back-to back games on the schedule affected the teams’ play. Thus, we have ignored last year and all these trends are strictly for November games from 2000 to 2010.
You will note that three of the four November trends we are about to present are for conference games only, as the better familiarity teams have with these opponents makes it easier for ‘over’ teams to attack weaknesses and gives ‘under’ teams a better idea of how to make stops. Note that all Total records are based on the closing odds at Pinnacle Sports.
Play the ‘over’ in all Oklahoma City Thunder November conference games (62-34-1, 64.6%): Does this really come as a surprise? The Thunder have been a running team for years and they have the pre-eminent scorer in the NBA in Kevin Durant. Their coach Scott Brooks could talk all he wants about Oklahoma City’s improved defense being the reason that the Thunder reached the NBA Finals last year, but they never would have been there if Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden did not combine to score 67.8 points per game, no matter how well the defense played. Another tendency for this franchise is that the defense usually gets better as the year goes on, meaning that games are generally higher scoring in November.
Play the ‘under’ in all Houston Rockets November conference games (68-43-1, 61.2%):The Rockets have had a difficult time finding an identity with so many personnel changes over the years, and thus this team has been the exact opposite of the Thunder in that the offense has been behind the defense early in the year while trying to get so many new parts to gel. Even last year when the Rockets finished ninth in the NBA in scoring, it took a while for the team to mesh with the ‘under’ going 10-7 overall in the season’s first 30 days. The team has quite a few new parts this year also, most notably with Jeremy Lin brought in to be the starting point guard in a questionable move. Thus look for the offense to struggle early and for the ‘under’ to continue to thrive.
Play the ‘under’ in all Miami Heat November conference games (60-39-2, 60.6%): TheHeat are the defending NBA Champions, and while the scoring of LeBron James and Dwayne Wade get most of the publicity, this has always been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. In fact, Miami finished fourth over the entire season in scoring defense last year, allowing only 92.5 points per game. Yes, this team has a well deserved reputation for being lazy during the regular season, and it would probably lead the league in defense every year if it gave an all-out effort every night. As it is though, the November ‘under’ record shows that this team is so good defensively that it can still shut teams down with less than a 100 percent effort.
Play the ‘over’ in all Milwaukee Bucks November games (89-62-1, 58.9%): This is the only trend we are presenting that applies to all November games and not only conference games. TheBucks were surprising contender to make the NBA Playoffs late in the year last season, considering that the Milwaukee defense surrendered 98.7 points per game. The Bucks could score though, and remember that Brandon Jennings missed some time last year and Monta Ellis was not acquired until midseason. The Bucks should be good offensively to begin this season and this is an organization that has made defense an afterthought over the years.
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