We are now less than one month away from the start of the 2012-13 NBA season, and we have noticed that certain teams have continued the same ATS November trends for year to year regardless of changes in personnel.
The 2012-13 NBA season begins on November 1st, and one method of making NBA picks, over the first month of the season is to look at how teams have performed during the month of November in recent seasons.
Now we obviously get that teams change from year to year, but yet there were still certain trends that remained consistent over the 11 Novembers between 2000 and 2010, and a lot of that has to do with teams having the same organizational philosophies.
Also, we are well aware that there was no November basketball in the NBA last season due to the lockout, and since that basically changed the entire dynamic of the season with better teams having a natural advantage with a shorter preseason and even with back-to-back-to back games on the schedule, we have elected not to substitute the first month of last season (January 2012) for November and thus all of these trends are strictly for November games form 2000 to 2010.
Note that all ATS records are based on the closing odds at Pinnacle Sports.
Play against the Miami Heat in November home games (61-29-2, 67.8%): LeBron James finally got his ring and there was no doubt that the Heat were the best team in the league while winning the NBA Championship last year, but they have been overvalued at home for years and they have almost always gotten off to slow starts. It is no secret that the Heat are often bored during the regular season, preferring to peak when it counts in the playoffs. To wit, when LeBron and Chris Bosh joined the Heat in 2010 to create the Big Three along with Dwayne Wade with a ton of fanfare, Miami immediately proceeded to go 2-8 ATS at home in November 2010!
Play on the Sacramento Kings in November home games (53-31-2, 63.8%): Well, the Kings are still in Sacramento for now amidst rumors that they are moving to Anaheim, and with the team expected to be improved this year, will be interesting if the Kings get the same great crowd support they have always gotten despite having some really bad basketball clubs. Based on their November ATS mark over the years, the Kings have been able to feed off of the energy of the home crowd and play a bit over their heads early in the season before reality has set in later in the year, resulting in second half collapses.
Play against the Houston Rockets as November favorites (54-34-1, 62.1%): The Rockets are a team that has always had chemistry issues despite many changes in personnel over the years, and as a result they have never really been reliable favorites early in the year while trying to mesh all of their different lineups. This season should be no different with Jeremy Lin coming aboard as the undisputed starting point guard, with only several weeks of brilliant play with the New York Knicks on his resume. The Rockets may have overpaid for a point guard that turned the ball over too much even during all his media hype last year, so look for the Houston struggles as favorites to continue.
Play against the Washington Wizards in all November games (87-59-5, 59.6%): The Wizards were still one of the worst teams in the NBA last season despite improving in the second half of the year. Now conventional wisdom would say leave a young team that improved later in the year alone, as Washington actually appeared to be heading in the right direction. So what did the Wizards do? They revamped their starting five with only John Wall still starting from the five starters that began the season last year. Perhaps questionable decisions like that by upper management is a contributing factor to this team’s lousy starts over the years.
Now we obviously get that teams change from year to year, but yet there were still certain trends that remained consistent over the 11 Novembers between 2000 and 2010, and a lot of that has to do with teams having the same organizational philosophies.Also, we are well aware that there was no November basketball in the NBA last season due to the lockout, and since that basically changed the entire dynamic of the season with better teams having a natural advantage with a shorter preseason and even with back-to-back-to back games on the schedule, we have elected not to substitute the first month of last season (January 2012) for November and thus all of these trends are strictly for November games form 2000 to 2010.
Note that all ATS records are based on the closing odds at Pinnacle Sports.
Play against the Miami Heat in November home games (61-29-2, 67.8%): LeBron James finally got his ring and there was no doubt that the Heat were the best team in the league while winning the NBA Championship last year, but they have been overvalued at home for years and they have almost always gotten off to slow starts. It is no secret that the Heat are often bored during the regular season, preferring to peak when it counts in the playoffs. To wit, when LeBron and Chris Bosh joined the Heat in 2010 to create the Big Three along with Dwayne Wade with a ton of fanfare, Miami immediately proceeded to go 2-8 ATS at home in November 2010!
Play on the Sacramento Kings in November home games (53-31-2, 63.8%): Well, the Kings are still in Sacramento for now amidst rumors that they are moving to Anaheim, and with the team expected to be improved this year, will be interesting if the Kings get the same great crowd support they have always gotten despite having some really bad basketball clubs. Based on their November ATS mark over the years, the Kings have been able to feed off of the energy of the home crowd and play a bit over their heads early in the season before reality has set in later in the year, resulting in second half collapses.
Play against the Houston Rockets as November favorites (54-34-1, 62.1%): The Rockets are a team that has always had chemistry issues despite many changes in personnel over the years, and as a result they have never really been reliable favorites early in the year while trying to mesh all of their different lineups. This season should be no different with Jeremy Lin coming aboard as the undisputed starting point guard, with only several weeks of brilliant play with the New York Knicks on his resume. The Rockets may have overpaid for a point guard that turned the ball over too much even during all his media hype last year, so look for the Houston struggles as favorites to continue.
Play against the Washington Wizards in all November games (87-59-5, 59.6%): The Wizards were still one of the worst teams in the NBA last season despite improving in the second half of the year. Now conventional wisdom would say leave a young team that improved later in the year alone, as Washington actually appeared to be heading in the right direction. So what did the Wizards do? They revamped their starting five with only John Wall still starting from the five starters that began the season last year. Perhaps questionable decisions like that by upper management is a contributing factor to this team’s lousy starts over the years.
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