By: Jason Lake
Before we get to the teams themselves, let’s do a little line shopping. Here’s a sample of what’s out there as I write this, looking at the Baltimore side of things:
Just a few days ago, the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans were pegged to meet in the AFC Championship Game. It could still happen, but both teams are threatening to go off the rails after a spate of nasty injuries. Check our NFL picks play on the game.
Sunday’s Ravens-Texans matchup (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS) is going to look more like a glorified exhibition game. The Ravens got the worst of it last week, losing both LB Ray Lewis (triceps) and DB Lardarius Webb (knee) for the remainder of the season. Add Houston LB Brian Cushing (knee) to the injury pile, and you’ve got three key defenders out of commission until 2013.
Baltimore’s got the bigger problem, at least according to the NFL lines. The Ravens opened as 4.5-point road dogs Monday morning and moved very quickly to +6 in early betting. Our consensus numbers show the market close to balancing out when offered Baltimore +7.5 at –130 juice.
This Looks Shopped
Before we get to the teams themselves, let’s do a little line shopping. Here’s a sample of what’s out there as I write this, looking at the Baltimore side of things:
Matchbook: +6 (+113)
Canbet: +6.5 (–104)
Heritage: +7 (–115)
Which of these is the best price for Baltimore supporters? As usual, it’s the smallest spread. People are willing to pay a premium in juice to get a pointspread on or above the magic number seven. Don’t be one of those people. The fair price for buying half a point in either direction from +7 is 11.9 cents, according to the Wizard of Odds, so the last three items on the list are all roughly the same price. But in a fair world, you’d only pay 6.3 cents to move from +6 to +6.5.
On the flip side, if you like the Texans this week, the choices range between –6 (–115) and –7.5 (+110). Interesting. In this case, you would still go with the six points. I was expecting more of a premium, but given the 30 sportsbooks on our list all vying for customers, deals will invariably happen.
It’s a Shame About Ray
Fading Baltimore would have been a relatively easy choice before those season-ending injuries grabbed the headlines. The Ravens might be tearing things up at 5-1, but they’ve dropped the cash in each of their last four games to fall to 2-4 ATS. And the main reason was simple enough for handicappers to grasp: overvalued defense.
Baltimore has been synonymous with excellent defense for a long, long time now. So long that people didn’t pay all that much attention to the absence of five-time Pro Bowl LB Terrell Suggs (Achilles’), the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Without Suggs, the Ravens have fallen from No. 1 in defensive efficiency last year to No. 17 after six weeks of the 2012 season.
Maybe people will notice now that Lewis is gone for the year. Losing Webb might be even worse for the Ravens, but Lewis is their poster boy – excuse me, Poster Man. Without him, everybody is panicking about Baltimore’s defense, and it shows in the football betting lines.
A Man Called Brian
Meanwhile, the Texans have lost back-to-back games ATS, and they dropped their first game SU last week, losing 42-24 to the Green Bay Packers (+4 away). Cushing tore his left ACL the week before in the second quarter of an eventual 23-17 victory over the New York Jets (+9.5 at home). Coincidence?
Most casual bettors wouldn’t know Cushing from a hole in the ground, especially now that DE J.J. Watt (already with 9.5 sacks and eight passes defended) has exploded on the scene in his second NFL season. But Cushing was Houston’s MVP last year, and they don’t have much of anything in the cupboard to replace his interior defense.
So now it’s the Texans who have entered my Fade Zone. Baltimore might have some gaping holes on defense, but with the way the market has swung, I’ll have to go with the Ravens as a value pick.
My Pick: Ravens +6 (+113) ---
Комментариев нет:
Отправить комментарий