By: Jason Lake
When I first checked in on this betting line a couple of days ago, the Niners were available at –6.5 (–115) thanks to some early action on Seattle. Not anymore. Most books had the line at seven points on Tuesday afternoon, and most of those were at the standard –110 vigorish.
Our blanket coverage of Thursday night’s big game continues with a focus on the pointspread, which has begun to swing back in the direction of the San Francisco 49ers as they prepare to host the Seattle Seahawks. Check out our NFL picks play on the spread.
So, how about those Seahawks? They just defeated the New England Patriots to improve to 4-2 SU and ATS, the exact same record as the 49ers. But the ‘Hawks opened as 8.5-point underdogs for Thursday’s matchup (8:20 p.m. ET, NFLN), and after some early movement toward Seattle, the Niners are picking up a little steam. Just a little, though.
Nickels and Dimes
When I first checked in on this betting line a couple of days ago, the Niners were available at –6.5 (–115) thanks to some early action on Seattle. Not anymore. Most books had the line at seven points on Tuesday afternoon, and most of those were at the standard –110 vigorish.
However, many of the sportsbooks on our menu have moved off that magic number at various levels of juice. Once again, we need to do some comparison shopping:
Pinnacle: +7.5 (–119)
Sportbet: +8 (–130)
If you’re on Seattle this week, your best value among these prices is with the seven points and the reduced vig. You do not want to pay 25 cents to move a full point from +7 to +8; the fair price for that would be about 16 cents. If you’re with the chalkeaters, take San Francisco –7.5 (+111) where available instead of –7 (–110) or –8 (+112).
Conventional Wisdom
So, who’s got the better defense in this matchup? If you go with the conventional stats, you’re probably thinking San Francisco. The Niners are best in the NFL at just 275.8 yards allowed per game. Seattle is in fourth at 294.7 yards, after allowing 475 yards against the Patriots.
That may be so, but not all yards are created equal. Take a gander at the efficiency stats and you’ll find the Seahawks moved from third to second overall after defeating the Patriots, while San Fran rose from No. 4 to No. 3 despite losing 26-3 to the New York Giants (+7 away).
If you’re sharp, and of course you are, you’re using the advanced stats to evaluate your teams. And you’re also paying attention to the squares and how they see things. It’s the difference in perception where you’ll find betting value.
The Stick
Ah, but the home/away split. The Seahawks are known to enjoy their home-field advantage at The Clink (aka CenturyLink Field, formerly Qwest Field). They’ve played three games there this year and won all three in upset fashion, beating a trio of the nation’s public darlings in the Dallas Cowboys (–3), the Packers (–3) and the Patriots (–3.5). Away from home, Seattle is just 1-1 SU and ATS, losing to the St. Louis Rams (+2) and edging the Carolina Panthers (–1).
Indeed, the Seahawks are just 6-14 SU and 7-12-1 ATS in their last 20 road games. But that improves to 4-7 SU and 5-5-1 ATS since the start of the 2011 campaign, the team’s second under Pete Carroll. And last year’s 33-17 loss at The Stick? That was with Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback. A quick reminder, using ESPN’s own hot metric:
Tarvaris Jackson 2011: 37.7 QBR (No. 33 among qualifying starters)
Russell Wilson 2012: 43.8 QBR (No. 25)
Wilson is a rookie with room to grow, and he’s already a significant improvement over what Seattle had last year. Maybe my man crush on Wilson is clouding my judgment, but I’m still on the Seahawks.
My Pick: Seattle +7 (–105) p
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