By: Jason Lake
Can’t argue with that. Back in Week 2, I was very happy to take the Falcons (–3 at home) in their Monday Night Football matchupwith the Denver Broncos. Most bettors were on the Broncos after Peyton Manning looked like his old self in the season opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers. I was on Atlanta’s defense, which has improved every year since Mike Smith took over as head coach.
The Atlanta Falcons look like Super Bowl contenders at 5-0, while the Oakland Raiders are 1-3 and look like they’d have trouble winning the Grey Cup. It hardly seems a fair fight. How big will the point spread grow between now and kick-off?
It’s already been a wild ride. An intrepid group of sportsbooks led out Sunday afternoon with the Falcons laying 7.5 points, and then the yo-yos came out. Depending on when you logged in Monday and at which books you shopped, you could find Atlanta listed anywhere between –7.5 and –10 on the NFL odds boards.
Falcon Crest
Can’t argue with that. Back in Week 2, I was very happy to take the Falcons (–3 at home) in their Monday Night Football matchupwith the Denver Broncos. Most bettors were on the Broncos after Peyton Manning looked like his old self in the season opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers. I was on Atlanta’s defense, which has improved every year since Mike Smith took over as head coach.
Yay defense. The Falcons won 27-21, and they’ve won every game since, going into Week 6 at 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. Their most recent performance: Sunday’s 24-17 victory over the Washington Redskins (+3 at home), punctuated by LB Sean Weatherspoon’s concussive hit on QB Robert Griffin III.
Oddly enough, I’ve read some dismissive comments about Atlanta’s defense from the nattering nabobs in the lamestream sports media. Really? The Falcons defense ranked No. 10 in efficiency going into Week 5. That’s six spots ahead of the Baltimore Ravens, by the way.
True, the Falcons have had issues against the run, allowing 142.8 yards per game on the ground and placing No. 30 on the efficiency charts. However, through the air, Atlanta is No. 4 overall, allowing just 203 yards per game. Last I checked, the NFL was a passing league.
Grounded and Pounded
And the last I checked, Oakland was worst in the league with 60.8 yards rushing per game. RB Darren McFadden is having an off-year at just 3.5 yards per carry, down from his career-high 5.4 yards in 2011. What gives?
Let’s point the fickle finger at Greg Knapp. He’s Oakland’s new offensive co-ordinator, hired to replace Al Saunders even though Knapp was already a bust running the Raiders offense in 2007-08. Those teams finished No. 28 and No. 31 in offensive efficiency, respectively.
Things weren’t quite that bad as the Raiders headed into their bye week with the No. 16-ranked offense in the league – No. 13 passing and No. 28 rushing. And do I hear some voices of hope in O-Town? Knapp told the folks at CSN Bay Area last week that he saw progress on his rebuilt offensive line, where the players are trying to adapt to Knapp’s zone-blocking schemes.
On top of that, WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (concussion) appears ready to play in Week 6. But the jury remains out on 6-foot-6, 320-pound RT Khalif Barnes, who remains week-to-week with a groin injury. There’s a whole host of other injured players on both sides of the ball, and this on a team that hasn’t had a first-round draft pick since LB Rolando McClain (also questionable with a concussion) in 2010. No depth, no peace.
Somewhere, sometime, Oakland will have a breakthrough. I don’t think it will be this week, not against the Falcons and not at the Georgia Dome. Add the Falcons to your NFL picks, and expect them to cover the 7.5 points easily.
NFL Pick: Falcons –7.5 ---
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