By: John Ryan
The Steelers came off their BYE week and needed to get a win over state-rival Philadelphia and did so winning on a last minute field goal 16-14. The game went UNDER and the Steelers failed to cover the spread installed as 3 ½ point favorites. Tennessee is a struggling team and were blown out by Minnesota 30-7 failing to cover as six point dogs and with the game playing UNDER 44 points.
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans will open up the Week 6 action in this week's edition of Thursday Night Football. How can bettors cash in on this game's total, and when and where should they place their NFL picks?
This week's Thursday Night Football matchup will provide us bettors with a few options to cash in with our NFL picks, but today we are going to focus just on betting this game's total. Let's look at each team's history and decide where we can find the best value when trying to select a side.
The Steelers came off their BYE week and needed to get a win over state-rival Philadelphia and did so winning on a last minute field goal 16-14. The game went UNDER and the Steelers failed to cover the spread installed as 3 ½ point favorites. Tennessee is a struggling team and were blown out by Minnesota 30-7 failing to cover as six point dogs and with the game playing UNDER 44 points.
The Steelers have alternated OVER-UNDER games through four games this season. The Titans have posted a 3-2 OVER mark. The Titans played UNDER in Week 1 in a 34-13 blowout loss home versus New England, then posted three straight OVERS. In those three games they gave up a ton of points losing 38-10 at San Diego, defeating Detroit 44-41, and then losing 38-14 at Houston. Granted, their schedule has been brutal and does not get any easier till Week 16 when they host Jacksonville.
The Tennessee ground game has been the greatest disappointment for this team. Without a sustained and reliable ground game the offense does not have the athletes at the skill positions to execute vertical pass routes and stretch opposing defenses.
The Steelers offense has scored well in their first three games, but had trouble against a stout Philadelphia Eagles defense last week. However, they posted a season-high 136 rushing yards on 31 carries and Roethlisberger threw for 207 passing yards on 21-for-37 passing. They have gained more offensive yards than their opponents in three of the four games played. The lone exception was the Week 1 31-19 loss loss at Denver.
Team Rankings
The Steelers rank 16th in the league averaging 23.2 points per game, while Tennessee ranks 17th averaging just 17.6 points per game. Looking at scoring margin, the Steelers rank 13th posting a 1.0 points per game differential while Tennessee is a distant and league-worst -18.6 points per game.
Yards-per-point is a stat that I believe has strong meaning in reflecting how well an offense and defense are executing. The Steelers rank 18th posting a 15.0 yards-per-point ratio while Tennessee is 25th with a 17.3 ratio. Teams that have offenses that need 14.0 or fewer yards to score one point are operating at an elite level. Temas between 15 and 17.9 are average offenses, and teams needing greater than 18.0 yards to score one point on average are struggling units prone to mistakes, penalties, and turnovers.
Defensively, the Steelers rank 16th in the NFL allowing 22.2 points per game while Tennessee ranks a league-worst 32nd allowing a whopping 36.2 points per game. Based on yards-per-point, the Steelers ranks a miserable 12.6 ratio and Tennessee 30th with a 11.7 ratio. This clearly shows that both teams have allowed big plays and whose offenses have had turnovers allowing opponents to have short fields to post scoring drives.
The Pick
This matchup takes on the same look as the Monday Night between the Texans and Jets, which went UNDER by just a ½ point depending on which NFL odds shop you used to make your picks. The point is that Texas showed up with a very conservative offensive scheme designed to minimize mistakes and turnovers and to establish the ground attack. The same can be said for the visiting Steelers, who are vastly better than the Titans, know they can establish the ground game, and will implement a low risk offensive scheme.
In the Monday Night win, the Texans had an rushing differential of greater than 100 yards midway through the second quarter. The Steelers, I believe will look to do the same and shorten the game and gain as much time-of-possession as possible. That is a certain gameplan to win this game and it certainly portends to the game playing exceedingly UNDER the posted total.
NFL Picks: Take the UNDER ---
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