среда, 10 октября 2012 г.

10.10.2012 MLB Picks: Giants vs. Reds Game 4


San Francisco scratched out a Game 3 win to extend the NLDS versus Cincinnati. The Reds have yet to decide on their Game 4 pitcher while the Giants go with Barry Zito. How do we see this game shaping up once Cincinnati makes a decision between Mat Latos and Mike Leake?

The San Francisco Giants live to fight another day after Tuesday's 10-inning, 2-1 victory in Game 3 of their NLDS against the Cincinnati Reds. By the time the contest ended, Great American BallPark resembled a battlefield strewn with dead and wounded on each side.
Cincinnati misplayed a chance to sweep the Giants and have extra time to rest up before the NLCS. The normally sure-handed Scott Rolen is who most will remember for fumbling the 10th-inning grounder that allowed the Giants to grab the win and beat back Cincy's brooms, but the Reds had already missed their chances by then, starting with wasting a brilliant performance by starting pitcher Homer Bailey.
Cincinnati RedsTuesday's setback also leaves Dusty Baker and his staff with a tough decision to make for Game 4, one that could wind up affecting the Reds throughout the NLCS should they win one of the next two games. Those rather innocuous "back spasms" that we were initially told forced Johnny Cueto out of Game 1 have now turned into an oblique strain. The Reds have ruled Cueto out for Game 4, and we can't help but think their ace is down for the rest of this playoff set and beyond.
Baker was undecided on who would be his Hump Day pitcher just eight hours before the start of the afternoon affair. All we really know is his eventual choice would have the initials 'ML,' Mat Latos or Mike Leake. Each comes with his own caveat; Latos would be working on short rest after a 4-inning, 57-pitch outing in relief of Cueto during Game 1 last Saturday in San Francisco, and adding Leake to the playoff roster means not having Cueto in the next round.
Bruce Bochy and the Giants will send Barry Zito up against whoever the Reds ultimately decide upon. Interested bettors will simply have to keep an eye on SBR's live MLB odds to catch the betting lines when they are released.
All Signs Point To Leake Getting The Nod From Dusty
If there was a prop on who would be Cincinnati's pitcher, Leake would be decided chalk over Latos. If Baker goes with Latos and the Reds lose, it just delays using Leake until a decisive Game 5, or sets up having to bring Bronson Arroyo back on short rest.
Barry ZitoWe have good news and bad news should Leake get the ball. The bad news is the former Sun Devil posted a 5.63 ERA over his final seven starts and had an ERA at Great American Ball Park (5.54) that was nearly two full runs higher than away (3.65). The good news is despite that figure at home, the Reds won nine of his 16 starts, and he tossed a gem against the Giants earlier this season when he went the distance in San Fran for a 5-1 upset win over Matt Cain. 
Zito last pitched eight days ago in Los Angeles, picking up the seventh-straight win on his personal ledger while the Giants won for the 11th consecutive time with him making the start. The veteran port-sider struggled a bit during a three-start stretch in June, but has otherwise been a very reliable arm in Bruce Bochy's rotation (Giants 21-11 in his outings). 
Baseball bettors were also very happy when Zito pitched this season, raking in $13.70, second-most behind Washington's Gio Gonzalez (+15.5 units). San Fran lost both of Zito's two assignments vs. Cincy, though it was no fault of his with six innings of work and only one run allowed each outing. 
If it is Latos, we've at least got something to go on with him and Zito hooking up at AT&T Parkon June 30. Zito pitched well but Latos was even better with a 2-hit complete game as a -125 favorite on the MLB odds board. 
Gimpy Stars, The Ump & My Lean
Nobody is 100% this time of year, as the old saying goes, but notable wounded for each side include Reds 2B Brandon Phillips and Giants RF Hunter Pence. Each was dragging a leg by the end of Game 3, Phillips nursing a sore right calf and Pence the same injury on the left side
Dan Iassogna will call the balls and strikes, and he's long been on my list of least favorite umpires. He's confrontational and seems almost eager at times to make sure his name gets in the paper. The 2012 season saw his plate assignments go 12-20-1 O/U/P.
San Francisco's slumbering offense is my top consideration for this game. Once the numbers come out, I expect to follow my current lean and place my MLB picks on the home team for the first time this series.
My pick: Reds (no odds available)  ---

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