Yankees vs. Orioles: MLB Picks

By: Willie Bee

If it seems like I've been previewing both of these teams for a while, no, you're not living in an old Outer Limits episode. We trailed the Orioles last week, including a 3-game set with the Yankees in the Bronx, and we've been following New York this week, which will continue the next four days in Charm City.

A starting pitching matchup between David Phelps and Jason Hammel might not sound like the beginning to an extremely crucial series, but that's what we're going to see when the Yankees and Orioles crank up a huge weekend at Camden Yards on Thursday. Even with Phelps and Hammel pitching, it is more compelling TV than watching President Obama's acceptance speech to remain the chief donkey. 

Those early numbers we always catch on SBRodds listed the Yankees as -110 to -120 road chalk with a 9 run total. We'll go with -115 for a morning line and an even split on the O/U pricing. 

New York managed to avoid the Rays' brooms on Wednesday in a 6-4 victory that was helped along by a late Tampa Bay fielding gaffe. Baltimore was on the wrong end of a 6-4 score, meanwhile, and the combination helped the Yankees reclaim a 1-game lead over the Orioles in the AL East as this series gets underway. The Yankees held a team meeting before the game which marked only their fifth win in the last 15 games. Orioles first baseman Mark Reynolds continues to just let his bat do the talking with his sixth homer in as many games. 

We saw Phelps last weekend at home against the O's, and it's an understatement to say the rook struggled with his control. He had a couple of similar outings against Tampa Bay when he made a couple of spot starts back in May and June, but nothing like the six free passes without getting through the fifth this past Saturday. Still, that turned out to be the only game the Yanks won in that set, and they did so on a -135 MLB moneyline. 

Manager Joe Girardi would like to hold Phelps in the 90-95 pitch count, and his top relievers (Rafael Soriano, Boone Logan and David Robertson) each saw action Wednesday. 

Thursday will be Hammel's first trip to a big league mound in nearly eight weeks following a scope his right knee. Whether or not it's an enjoyable return against a team he has routinely struggled against remains to be seen. All reports are Buck Showalter and O's pitching coach Rick Adair will have him on a pitch count around 80, maybe a few more. 

Hammel is 1-3 lifetime with a 6.75 ERA in seven starts, two of those coming this year. Both resulted in Baltimore losses, though his April start at Yankee Stadium was a good go. 

The Yankees hoped to have 1B Mark Teixeira back for the start of this series, but he remains doubtful for Thursday. New York is replacing him with a combination of Nick Swisher and Steve Pearce. 

Baltimore is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings with the Pinstripes after losing the first four of the season series. Three of the five played so far at Oriole Park failed to reach the total. 

Rain was expected in the Baltimore area during the day Thursday, but all signs point to it clearing out by first pitch and leaving warm, muggy temps in the upper 80s with a light southerly breeze blowing out to center at game time. The rest of the weekend looks good, with the possible exception of a few stray showers on Saturday. 

A tricky game to get this important series going, especially since neither hurler instills much confidence in me. In the end, I'll make my play on the offenses to both come through and send this one OVER the total. 

My pick: Over 9 (-105)  +++