MLB Picks: Phillies vs. Astros

By: Willie Bee 

Are the 2012 Philadelphia Phillies about to pull a 2011 St. Louis Cardinals act?

The set begins Thursday with a rather nondescript pitching matchup in terms of a game with such big playoff implications possibly riding on the outcome.

Tyler Cloyd and Lucas Harrell will set the wheels in motion at Minute Maid Park, Cloyd being part of the Philly rotation and Harrell with the Astros for those of you who haven't been keeping up...and, even some of you who have.

Philadelphia started out at -130 on the MLB odds board behind Cloyd, with Thursday's total at 8 and evenly split high/low. The moneyline has crept up a few pennies on Philadelphia overnight while the total is favoring the UNDER.

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SIDE

MONEY LINE

TOTAL

SCORE

PHILADELPHIA

HOUSTON

• -1½ +120
• -133
• o8 -116

• +1½ -130
• +123
• u8 +106

• -1½ +115
• -137
• o8 -115

• +1½ -135
• +127
• u8 -105

• -1½ +115
• -140
• o8 -120

• +1½ -135
• +120
• u8 +100

• -1½ +115
• -140
• o8 -110

• +1½ -135
• +120
• u8 -110

• -1½ +121
• -134
• o8 -117

• +1½ -134
• +126
• u8 +106

• -1½ +115
• -138
• o8 -115

• +1½ -135
• +118
• u8 -105

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Charlie Manuel's crew has to be feeling it by now. Count me among those who have long counted the Phillies out of the running, only to be among the presently-bitten with their recent run.Postseason hopes still have to be tempered, however, despite sitting just 3.5 games out of the No. 2 slot in the National League wild card hunt. Nineteen games are left, and Philadelphia will have to climb over three teams to make it, their Keystone State rivals in Pittsburgh first, followed by the Dodgers and Cardinals.

Houston has obviously been long out of the picture, but they present a danger to the Phils both in terms of recent play and historically. Let's hop in my way-back machine for a quick journey that will show the Astros have had a solid edge for the past 15+ seasons in this series (72-48 since the beginning of 1997), and have won or split four of the last seven season meetings. Though their numbers may be few, this Philly roster still has some names on it that remember being swept by the Astros in both the 2004 and 2005 seasons. That 0-6 mark vs. Houston in '05 cost the Phillies a seat at the playoff table when they finished a game behind the Astros.

True, Houston did lose two in Philly back in May, but the 'Stros have a 24-17 mark vs. the Phils all-time at Minute Maid Park. They're also 5-6 so far in September, which might not sound like much, but does qualify as a nice stretch for a team that is just 45-98 on the year.

As for tonight's young hurlers, it would appear to be the only game of the four that Houston has an advantage in the starting pitching matchup. Harrell has been the most consistent member of the Astros rotation this season with a 10-9 record and 3.83 ERA in 28 assignments. He has been especially good at home where he is 6-2 with a 2.06 ERA in 11 trips to the Minute Maid Parkmound.

Harrell faced the Phils in their home park back in May and took the loss with 5.2 innings and three runs allowed, two of which were earned.

Cloyd is making just his fourth big league start, and first against the Astros. It's generally considered to be an advantage for the pitcher the first time he goes against any team, and take it from someone who has followed the Astros for 50 years, that has certainly been true forHouston's often anemic showings when getting a first look at a hurler.

About the only injury notes worth making is that Houston has its middle infield combo back together for the first time in a couple of months. Shortstop Jed Lowrie returned Wednesday for his first action since just after the all-star break, and 2B Jose Altuve is back in the mix after missing a few games with a strained abdominal muscle.

I smell a Philly sweep, but will instead make my pick in Game 1 on the UNDER.

My pick: Under 8 (-115)  ---