четверг, 13 сентября 2012 г.

MLB Pick: Twins to beat Royals at home


The Australian Liam Hendriks has yet to get a Major League win in 16 career starts for the Twins, but he has a chance to break through tonight in a winnable home game vs. Luis Mendoza and the Royals. Take Minnesota Thursday.

There could be a rather surprising result on Thursday night when Luis Mendoza and the Kansas City Royals (65-77 overall, 34-39 away) take on the winless Liam Hendriks and the Minnesota Twins (49-84 overall, 28-43 home) in the final game of a three-game series from Target Field in Minneapolis, MN at 8:10 ET.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has this game rated close to even with the current odds on Minnesota set at -103.

Joe MauerThis is a totally meaningless game from a standings viewpoint as the Twins are tied for last place in the American League Central Division, where they trail these third place Royals by 6½ games and the first place White Sox by a whopping 17½ games.

Still, Minnesota, unlike some other doormats that have mailed in their seasons, puts forth its best effort every night, and the young Twins are actually hitting the ball quite well lately and have been all year here at home. The Twins are batting .281 over the last 10 games including hitting an impressive .294 vs. right-handed pitchers while averaging a hearty 7.11 runs against them during this current span. Furthermore, they are batting .279 at home for the whole year.

The problem for Minnesota has been pitching, and that has included tonight’s starter Hendriks. The Australian born right-hander has yet to record a Major League win, as he is 0-7 with a 6.20 ERA in 12 starts this year after going 0-2 in four starts last season. However, the Twins desire to get him a win vs. a beatable opponent is the very reason we are playing this otherwise dreadful matchup.

Hendriks has been staked to 4-0 leads in each of his last two starts, including an outing vs. these Royals in Kansas City, but he failed to hold the lead both times because he tried to be too fine and constantly fell behind, forcing him to groove pitches with three-ball counts. So why should tonight be any different?

Well, that would be because Manager Ron Gardenhire has publicly stated to the media that Hendriks has been trying to be too perfect, trying to hit the corners with the lead instead of challenging hitters earlier in the count, and that he wants to see Hendriks be more aggressive tonight. We expect the hurler to take his manager’s words to heart and do just that in pursuit of that elusive first win.

Mendoza has had some nice moments for the Royals this season, but he has not pitched well as of late, failing to record a Quality Start in any of his last four outings while posting an ugly 6.86 ERA and 1.78 WHIP over those efforts. Mendoza was roughed up for five earned runs and 10 hits in only 5.1 innings by the Chicago White Sox in his last start Friday and he now must contend with a hot Minnesota lineup.

So the bottom line here is that the Twins will probably give Hendriks good run support again tonight, so it will be in his hands whether or not he can finally break through with a win. Look for him to trust his stuff for a change in front of a supportive home crowd on Thursday.


MLB Pick: Twins -103  +++

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