MLB Picks: Braves vs. Marlins 17.09.2012

Last week we wondered if the Phillies were about to charge into the playoffs a la the 2011 Cardinals. That silly notion was answered by Philadelphia's inability to do any better than a split in Houston over the weekend against the worst team in the majors.

Now we can't help but wonder if the best teams in the two leagues are the Atlanta Braves and Oakland Athletics and, if so, how much FOX executives will cry if that pair does indeed meet in the World Series. You've got to believe very few folks outside Georgia and the Bay Area would give a hoot, but at least Joe Buck and Tim McCarver could drone on about Chipper Jones' retirement and the fact Brad Pitt played Billy Beane in Moneyball. 

Atlanta continues its march towards the postseason when the Braves hit the road this week beginning with a stop in Miami for three against the Marlins. The Braves are favorites in the low -130s for Monday's series opener with the baseball odds boards showing 7.5 for the total, and favoring the UNDER.

•  
•  
•  
•  
•  
•  

SIDE

MONEY LINE

TOTAL

SCORE

ATLANTA

MIAMI

• -1½ +120
• -133
• o7½ -120

• +1½ -140
• +123
• u7½ +100

• -1½ +125
• -132
• o7½ -120

• +1½ -145
• +122
• u7½ -100

• -1½ +120
• -135
• o7½ -120

• +1½ -140
• +115
• u7½ +100

• -1½ +120
• -135
• o7½ -120

• +1½ -140
• +115
• u7½ -100

• -1½ +127
• -131
• o7½ -114

• +1½ -140
• +123
• u7½ +103

• -1½ +125
• -135
• o7½ -120

• +1½ -145
• +115
• u7½ +100

-

-

Unlike last season when they collapsed in the final month to cough up a spot in the playoffs, the Braves are hitting their stride this September with a 10-5 mark so far and own a very comfortable 7-game lead in the National League wild card ranks. Atlanta begins this trip having just swept the Nationals to pull within 5.5 games of NL East-leading Washington, and did what very clubs have done this season by out-pitching the Nats in the 3-game set.

Atlanta also gets to kick this road trip off with veteran Tim Hudson on the hill, and that has generally been a very good thing over the years for the Braves when they face the Marlins. On the verge of completing his 14th MLB season, Hudson is 13-4 lifetime against the Fish with a 2.81 ERA in 24 starts covering more than 150 innings. He has added to that dominance this season with wins in both of his assignments vs. Miami while sporting a 1.69 ERA, though both of those did come at Turner Field with Monday's contest his first appearance at Marlins Park.

While the Braves have done well so far this month, September hasn't been all that great for Hudson. He's 1-2 in three starts, one a fine showing in a win at home vs. Colorado and the other two not so fine against the Phils and Brewers.

We noted Miami's struggles last week when covering their series with the Phillies, so there's not much reason to rehash that right now. Suffice to say the Marlins underachieved after a lot of hype entering 2012, and Ozzie Guillen's tenure with the team could be short-lived.

Miami will send Wade LeBlanc to the hill for his third start since rejoining the rotation at the beginning of September. It has been a month since he was on the winning end of any decision, and even that outing in Colorado wasn't much to crow about (5 IP, 5 ER).

LeBlanc has seen the Braves once as a starter and twice as a reliever, taking the loss in one of the games that he came out of the bullpen. The start in Atlanta came with him on a short pitch count, and he was unable to make it last long enough to get through the fifth. In his favor tonight is a rather lackluster 28-29 record for the Braves against southpaws.

One injury note for the Braves concerns catcher Brian McCann. The backstop is not expected to be in the lineup on Monday as he deals with some soreness in his right hamstring. Look for a Tuesday or possibly Wednesday return for the 6-time all-star.

Atlanta has owned the season series at 9-3, and really enjoyed playing in the Marlins' new digs with a 5-1 mark at Miami. One of the wins on this diamond was Hudson's July 24 start opposite LeBlanc. The totals have split in the previous six games played at Marlins Park.

A -135 price on Hudson almost seems too good to pass up, even with his up-&-down performance of late. Maybe it is too good to be true, but count me among those falling into the trap if it is, as I am adding the Braves to my MLB picks in this series opener.

My pick: Braves -135 +++