Verlander & Tigers vs. Rangers: MLB Picks

By: Willie Bee

If Derek Holland ever wanted to make a statement, he couldn't make a louder one than with a good showing in Texas on Saturday night when the Rangers continue their weekend series with the Detroit Tigers.

Holland didn't fare well against the Motown crew in last October's ALCS, so he would love to prove that he does indeed have the stuff to shut them down. It would also be a huge lift if he could do so while facing the ace of the Tigers staff, Justin Verlander. 

Not surprisingly, the baseball odds makers like the reigning AL MVP and Cy Young to the tune of Detroit priced -145 on the opening MLB odds. The number had fallen to around -140 at most shops with the total sitting at 9 and favoring the UNDER on Saturday morning, roughly 12 hours before the 8:05 p.m. (ET) first pitch at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. 

Austin Jackson fueled the Tigers' 6-2 win in the series opener on Friday night. The fleet-footed outfield scored Detroit's first run after tripling and iced the evening with a 7th-inning inside-the-park homer. Texas pitchers assisted the Tigers' cause by issuing six free passes in the game. 

Verlander quieted the Rangers at Comerica Park earlier this season, a good sign after they roughed him up a bit last October in Games 1 and 5 of the ALCS (11.1 IP, 7 ER). He was able to tough it out in the latter for a 7-5 win. After closing July with a couple of losses in Cleveland and Boston, Verlander bounced back last Monday in New York with a great performance against the Yankees.

He actually hasn't pitched in this park too often the past few seasons, just the ALCS a year go and a strong effort in 2009 when he whiffed 13 would-be Texas hitters in a 123-5 win.

Holland vs. the Tigers

It has been almost two years since Holland faced the Tigers in his only regular season start. A couple of wind-blown pops played into three unearned runs in his four inning stint. The lefty also saw them twice in the ALCS last October, and only had himself to blame for two short outings, one in which he couldn't finish the third and the other an out shy of five full innings. Texas won all three of those games, but Holland didn't provide much assistance in the victories. 

Holland missed about a month nursing both a sore shoulder and a virus, but he came back with a couple of solid outings initially against the Twins and Mariners to get his month of July rolling. Just one good effort has followed in the four since then, however, and the more alarming than his 7.00 ERA in that span are the nine homers, close to half his season total. Granted, he was facing the Angels (twice) and Red Sox in that stretch, a couple of powerful lineups, but he's now going against another in the Tigers at a park that is very hitter-friendly. 

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SIDE

MONEY LINE

TOTAL

SCORE

DETROIT

TEXAS

• -1½ +120
• -137
• o9 -105

• +1½ -130
• +127
• u9 -105

• -1½ +110
• -139
• o9 -110

• +1½ -130
• +129
• u9 -110

• -1½ +105
• -145
• o9 -110

• +1½ -125
• +125
• u9 -110

• -1½ +110
• -140
• o9 -105

• +1½ -130
• +120
• u9 -115

• -1½ +118
• -136
• o9 -106

• +1½ -128
• +128
• u9 -104

• -1½ +105
• -149
• o9 -105

• +1½ -125
• +129
• u9 -115

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Our Picks & Predictions

This isn't Jeremy Bonderman or Armando Gallaraga or even Rick Porcello, who will close the series for Detroit on Sunday. This is Justin friggin' Verlander! He will be tackling an incredibly deep lineup and will be doing so in a park conducive for the long ball, but I fully expect him to gut through it and git-r-done, to quote poet Larry the Cable Guy.

You may want to take a stroll down Wuss Street tonight and place your MLB picks on the Tigers moneyline. I'll take an alternate route with a run line play on Detroit as part of my Saturday action.

My pick: Tigers -1.5 (+110)

For all of you risk takers out there, here is a nice MLB Parlay to check out that includes our Tigers on the ML.