Philadelphia Union vs. New England Revolution MLS pick

By: Mike Richardson 

All eyes may be on London for the Olympics but there’re goals waiting to burst across the pond in the MLS when the Philadelphia Union take on the New England Revolution.

The bookies fancy Philadelphia on this one and have them offered up at -110, while an away win is at +260. This handicapper reckons that the adage that you never see a poor bookie is right on the nose with this one!

Quick on the draw

Both sides have two defeats in their last five outings but the away side have to carry the can of just one victory in their past five. The Revolution have scored just five goals in their last five games and conceded...would you believe it the same number. If that’s the only stat you want to base your soccer betting on go for a draw, at +240 with the oddsmakers and a 1-1 draw at that, offered up at +600. However, the bookies seem to expecting goals as a goalless game is at +1000.

Easy score / Easy concede!

Philadelphia recently recovered from a dreadful run but they came doubly unstuck against Aston Villa (1-0) and the New York Redbulls (2-0) in their last two. Philly’s are relying heavily on their home form, having recorded just two wins in the nine matches they have played away from Philadelphia this season. What does that tell you?

The Union have also conceded five goals in their last five but have scored nine, THAT stat would suggest a 2-1 Philadelphia win, something that the bookies think is more likely that the aforementioned 1-1, at +800. The biggest factor gleaned for these sides recent form is that the Union have lost two games on the bounce, and have failed to score in BOTH those defeats. If you fancy that that will continue you can pick up 1-0, 2-0 and 3-0 to the Revolution at +900, +1600 and +4000 respectively.

But I’m not betting that way

Despite the back to back defeats the Union are the tougher side. And before any rabid Revolution fan rushes to point out that New England are squatting above them in the table, I’d like to remind them that “squatting” is probably the right word as they only enjoy priority seating in the standings by  three points and the Union have not one, but two (count  ’em) all importantgames in hand.

Union Dues

New England will hope that Philadelphia’s distractions off the pitch will flow over onto the field and cause confusion within the Union. Philadelphia are being sued by their former Team Manager Peter Nowak, for breach of contract stemming from his firing in June. The club issued a statement reading, "The team disputes the allegations in complaint and will vigorously defend against the lawsuit, "Nowak is seeking at something in the region of $150,000 from the club.

Nowak was P-45’d after a 2-7-2 start, so I’d not bet on him seeing much of that $150,000

Back on pitch side

Philadelphia have a couple of reasons to expect a decent return at the weekend, Union midfielder Michael Farfan and defender Carlos Valdes featured in Wednesday night's 3-2 MLS win over Chelsea at PPL Park. They are likely to be primed for greater glory ion a proper game.

Very Rev(erend)

Last weekend’s New England grind house performance at Livestrong Sporting Park was an example of the Revolution’s fortitude. Despite the Revs conceding the majority of possession in a 0-0 draw with Sporting Kansas City. It was a performance (and result) that pleased head coach Jay Heaps, “The Kansas City game is a building block for us defensively. We’ve had a couple games like that defensively, but we haven’t put together a full 90-minute performance where we have the passing we know we can do – that we’re good at – with those tight defensive responsibilities without giving up anything.” Time will tell.

Someone is due a win, Philly may be out to avoid three games without a win (counting the Villa friendly) however the Revolution have not beaten Union in four times of asking. I wouldn’t blame anyone for backing a draw, but I have a good feeling about Philly! Despite the fact that the last game was a 4-4 thriller, the two games before that were all one way Union traffic with a 3-0 and a 2-1 win. Another 4-4 is offered up at +1500, 3-0 is at +1800 2-1 is at +800.

Soccer Pick: There will be goals, there will be a winner and it’s gonna’ be Philadelphia. Let’s go for 2-0 at +1000.