Homer Bailey of the Reds is 0-5 with a 6.50 ERA lifetime vs. the Brewers and Milwaukee is expecting to have Ryan Braun back in the lineup tonight after missing a game with a groin injury. Take the Brewers with Marco Estrada Friday.
In a game where one team is expecting to get its biggest slugger back and one team will be without its biggest slugger for a while, Marco Estrada and the Milwaukee Brewers (44-47 overall, 18-24 away) take on Homer Bailey and the Cincinnati Reds (52-40 overall, 28-18 home) as the teams open up a three-game series Friday night from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH at 7:10 ET.
The money line at Pinnacle Sports has Milwaukee as a small underdog for this contest at current odds of +111.
The Brewers are expecting to get reining National League MVP Ryan Braun back for tonight’s contest after he was forced to leave the game Tuesday vs. the St. Louis Cardinals and then missed the game Wednesday because of a groin injury. Meanwhile, the Reds will be without former MVP and a candidate for the award again this year in Joey Votto for at least another three weeks after he had knee surgery on Tuesday.
The Reds had scored a total of eight runs in the first three games of a four-game series vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks in their first series without Votto and they then trailed 6-0 in the series finale yesterday before rallying for three runs in the sixth inning and four runs in the seventh for a thrilling 7-6 win. That win kept Cincinnati in first place in the National League Central by one-half game over the second place Pittsburgh Pirates, who were idle on Thursday.
They now look to hold on to the division lead with Bailey on the bump. The good news for Bailey is that he is pitching some very good baseball right now, but the bad news is that he has never pitched well vs. the Brewers, and in fact he has yet to beat them.
Bailey has reeled off three consecutive Quality starts while allowing two earned runs or less in each outing to improve to 8-6 for the year with a 3.93 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. However, Bailey has been considerably worse at the hitter’s haven known as Great American Ball Park, as he is 2-4 with a 5.12 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP while allowing 13 of the 17 home runs that he has allowed this season in this ballpark.
Furthermore, Bailey is 0-5 with a 6.50 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 10 career starts vs. the Brewers while generously allowing Milwaukee batters to hit .299 off of him. That includes two starts vs. Milwaukee this year, both losses, where he allowed a total of 11 runs on 13 hits plus four walks against five strikeouts while lasting a total of only 7.2 innings over the two outings.
The Brewers are hitting the road winning the last two games vs. the Cardinals at home, and they probably should have swept that series as they blew a 2-0 ninth-inning lead in a 3-2 loss in the series opener. Estrada gets the ball tonight and he has allowed three runs or less in three straight starts.
What really sticks out about Estrada though are his very nice strikeout totals as of late, as he struck out 11 Pirates in 5.2 innings last time out and that came two starts after striking out 12 of these Reds in six innings here in Cincinnati on June 26th. Estrada may be 0-3 with a 4.13 ERA overall, but he has an impressive 66 strikeouts vs. just 11 walks in 56.2 innings so it appears to be just a matter of time before he gets into the win column.
That time could very well come tonight as if you take away the sixth and seventh innings yesterday, the Reds would have scored only eight runs in four games without Votto vs. Arizona. Look for Bailey’s struggles vs. the Brewers to continue in a Milwaukee victory on Friday.
The money line at Pinnacle Sports has Milwaukee as a small underdog for this contest at current odds of +111.
The Brewers are expecting to get reining National League MVP Ryan Braun back for tonight’s contest after he was forced to leave the game Tuesday vs. the St. Louis Cardinals and then missed the game Wednesday because of a groin injury. Meanwhile, the Reds will be without former MVP and a candidate for the award again this year in Joey Votto for at least another three weeks after he had knee surgery on Tuesday.The Reds had scored a total of eight runs in the first three games of a four-game series vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks in their first series without Votto and they then trailed 6-0 in the series finale yesterday before rallying for three runs in the sixth inning and four runs in the seventh for a thrilling 7-6 win. That win kept Cincinnati in first place in the National League Central by one-half game over the second place Pittsburgh Pirates, who were idle on Thursday.
They now look to hold on to the division lead with Bailey on the bump. The good news for Bailey is that he is pitching some very good baseball right now, but the bad news is that he has never pitched well vs. the Brewers, and in fact he has yet to beat them.
Bailey has reeled off three consecutive Quality starts while allowing two earned runs or less in each outing to improve to 8-6 for the year with a 3.93 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. However, Bailey has been considerably worse at the hitter’s haven known as Great American Ball Park, as he is 2-4 with a 5.12 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP while allowing 13 of the 17 home runs that he has allowed this season in this ballpark.
Furthermore, Bailey is 0-5 with a 6.50 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 10 career starts vs. the Brewers while generously allowing Milwaukee batters to hit .299 off of him. That includes two starts vs. Milwaukee this year, both losses, where he allowed a total of 11 runs on 13 hits plus four walks against five strikeouts while lasting a total of only 7.2 innings over the two outings.
The Brewers are hitting the road winning the last two games vs. the Cardinals at home, and they probably should have swept that series as they blew a 2-0 ninth-inning lead in a 3-2 loss in the series opener. Estrada gets the ball tonight and he has allowed three runs or less in three straight starts.
What really sticks out about Estrada though are his very nice strikeout totals as of late, as he struck out 11 Pirates in 5.2 innings last time out and that came two starts after striking out 12 of these Reds in six innings here in Cincinnati on June 26th. Estrada may be 0-3 with a 4.13 ERA overall, but he has an impressive 66 strikeouts vs. just 11 walks in 56.2 innings so it appears to be just a matter of time before he gets into the win column.
That time could very well come tonight as if you take away the sixth and seventh innings yesterday, the Reds would have scored only eight runs in four games without Votto vs. Arizona. Look for Bailey’s struggles vs. the Brewers to continue in a Milwaukee victory on Friday.
Brewers +111 ---
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