MLB Picks Previews 2012 – AL Central

Predicted Order of Finish
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Chicago White Sox

Detroit Tigers (95-67 2011) – The Tigers rode the golden right arm of ace Justin Verlander all the way to the ALCS last October before falling to Texas in six games. This team was no fluke, finishing fourth in runs scored, on-base percentage and slugging, plus third in batting average. Meanwhile, the 28-year-old Justin Verlander went 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA, fanning 250 in 251 innings winning the MVP and Cy Young. He’s a rare workhorse ace to build a staff around.

27-year-old Max Scherzer is an up-and-coming talent, a good strikeout pitcher winning 12 and 15 games the last two seasons. 28-year-old Doug Fister was picked up at the trading deadline and went 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in 10 starts as a Tiger, while they have high hopes for 23-year-old Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.75 ERA). Throwing in a big park like Comerica is a huge plus for their pitchers.

A bad postseason (8.01 ERA) shouldn’t diminish what the Detroit bullpen accomplished, which was very good, led by ace closer Valverde (2.24 ERA, 49-for-49 in save opportunities). Righty Joaquin Benoit (63 strikeouts in 61 innings) is a fine middle man, with Phil Coke and Daniel Schlere situational relievers, plus they add Octavio Dotel for depth and flexibility.

The offense was outstanding despite playing in a pitcher-friendly park. The bad news is that DH Victor Martinez will miss the 2012 season after surgery to repair a torn ACL, but the Tigers moved quickly to sign Prince Fielder to play first and DH. The 27-year-old Fiedler is off a 38-homer, 36-double season in Milwaukee, hitting .299 and driving in 120 runs. He probably won’t duplicate that in this park, but is still a potent weapon in a deep lineup.

That means Miguel Cabrera (.344, 30 HRs, 105 RBI, on-base percentage of .448) moves to third. As the Marlins’ full-time third baseman in 2007, Cabrera made 23 errors.  SS Jhonny Peralta is off a career-high .299 batting average and hit 21 HRs, while Ramon Santiago and Ryan Raburn (14 HRs, .256) will platoon at second base. Catcher Alex Avila (19 HRs, .295) provides more offensive punch.

The outfield is solid behind CF Austin Jackson (22 steals, 11 triples), who has speed atop the order and provides Gold Glove-caliber defense, with RF Brennan Boesch (.283, 16 HRs) reliable and LF Delmon Young getting an early shot to live up to his abilities. The Tigers look better in 2011 and should be in the running for another division title.

Minnesota Twins (63-99 in 2011) – The Twinkies bottomed out to last place, losing 99 games, but don’t forget they won 94 games in 2010. Will we see a revival? Or are they somewhere in the middle? The rotation was beset by problems last summer, but could be much improved behind Francisco Liriano (9-10, 5.09 ERA), Nick Blackburn (7-10, 4.49), Carl Pavano (9-13, 4.30), Scott Baker (8-6, 3.14) and Brian Duensing (9-14, 5.23). This is an organization that teaches strong fundamentals in the field and for their pitchers to not walk anyone. Duensing had a 1.80 ERA in the pen and could be moved there if newcomer Jason Marquis settles in as a starter. Marquis pitched 132 innings combined for Washington and Arizona last year before breaking his right leg in mid-August.

The bullpen is a concern as they got hit hard with losses, including ace closer Joe Nathan. Matt Capps (15 saves, 4.25 ERA) has a fine young arm, and Glen Perkins (2.48) was terrific while fanning 65 in 61 innings. After ranking last in the majors in bullpen ERA (4.51) they can only be better.

The offense ranked No. 25 in the majors in runs scored and clearly needs 1B Justin Morneau (.227, 4 HRs) and catcher Joe Mauer (.287, 296 at bats) to return to health, as the heart and soul of the offense. Morneau has been encouraged by the health of his wrist but, has had a poor spring. And while Mauer appears fully healthy, he had only 47 starts behind the plate last season. Third baseman Danny Valencia (15 HRs, .246) is decent, though the Twins signed Sean Burroughs to a minor league deal as insurance.

38-year-old SS Jamey Carroll should help solidify the middle infield, hitting .290 and .291 the last two seasons with the Dodgers. Alexi Casilla (15 steals) is solid/unspectacular at second base.

The outfield has a new look and has speed, which will help defensively in cavernous Target Field. 33-year-old LF Josh Willingham comes over from Oakland where he belted 29 homers and 98 RBI, while center fielder Denard Span (.264) has looked good in spring after playing just half a season in 2010 because of a concussion and Ben Revere is a solid defensive backup outfielder. One of the most intriguing players is catcher Ryan Doumit, who comes over from Pittsburgh after hitting 15, 10, 13 and 8 homers the last four years. They will use him behind the plate, at DH and even the outfield. They don’t have the payroll to improve if injuries crop up again, but with a little luck in the health department the Twins could look more like their impressive 2010 team than last year’s last place squad.

Kansas City Royals  (71-91 in 2011) – Kansas City took some important steps-up last season. They wwere No. 10 in baseball in runs scored, No. 4 in batting average, No. 8 in on-base percentage and No. 7 in slugging. They were one game below .500 at home, but 31-50 away. The farm system has been very good and 12 players made their big league debuts last summer.

When they traded away ace Zack Greinke, they got shortstop Alcides Escobar in return and the kid is a fine player. He had 26 steals last year, a .254 average and a lot of acrobatic plays defensively. Johnny Giavotella (.247) is penciled in at second, though that could change. 22-year-old first baseman Eric Hosmer (19 HRs, .293, 78 RBI) is terrific and 23-year-old third baseman Mike Moustakas (5 HRs, .263) has nothing but upside after being the second overall pick in 2007. This is a pretty good infield. The outfield also has a No. 2 overall pick (2005) in LF Alex Gordon (23 HRs, 17 steals, .303 average), who teams with reliable rightfielder Jeff Francoeur  (20 HRs, 87 RBI) and defensive CF Lorenzo Cain.  Throw in DH Billy Butler (95 RBI) and there’s plenty like about this Kansas City offense and defense in the field.

If this team is to take a step-up it needs to come from the pitching staff, which is why they grabbed 29-year-old lefthander Jonathan Sanchez, the former Giant. He has been up and down and last season, throwing 101 innings with a 4.26 ERA, but allowed only 80 hits as opponents hit .220 off him and fanned 102. He helped the Giants reach the postseason in 2010 by posting a 2.61 ERA after the All-Star break, including a 1.04 mark in his last seven starts.

The Royals like 28-year-old righty Luke Hochevar (4.68, 198 IP), who was 6-3 with a 3.52 ERA in the second half. Veteran lefty Bruce Chen is a junkball pitcher, but has been very good as a starter and went 12-8 last year (3.77 ERA). The No. 4 and No. 5 spots are wide open with righthander Felipe Paulino and lefty Danny Duffy available. The stocked farm system has lefty Mike Montgomery (a top prospect) and righty Aaron Crow.

The bullpen has a strong setup man in Joakim Soria (60 Ks in 60 innings, 17 walks) and adds Jonathan Broxton and Jose Mijares to one-year deals. Broxton is a former closer and a two-time All-Star. The Royals are no longer the laughing stock of the division and if Sanchez and Hochevar develop as an above-average, one-two punch atop the rotation, eating innings, Kansas City could improve and may have a shot at getting over that elusive .500 mark.

Cleveland Indians (80-82 in 2011) – The Indians have fallen hard from making the ALCS in 2007, to selling off Cliff Lee and C.C. Sabathia while rebuilding again. This young team overachieved last season, with a winning record at home (44-27), but 36-45 away. They were fortunate to be near .500 with an offense that was 16th in runs in baseball, 17th in OBP, 16th in slugging, and 23rd in team ERA.

The Cleveland infield has an ace in 26-year-old shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera (25 homers). He hit .293 in the first half of the season, but only .244 in the second half. Young 2B Jason Kipnis (.272 in 136 at bats) played well in limited time, but is a converted center fielder and is still raw defensively. That will be a concern with this young pitching staff. Cleveland signed 29-year-old Casey Kotchman to play first base, and he hit 10 homers with a .306 average with Tampa Bay in 2011. His .378 OBP will help clog the bases and perhaps bring some plate discipline to the young players, which is needed as the Indians were 17th in OBP as a team.

23-year-old 3B Lonnie Chisenhall (7 HRs) will get time at the hot corner, but there is a lot of youth in this lineup. 25-year-old Carlos Santana, a switch-hitting catcher, hit just .239 but belted 27 HRs, 79 RBIs with 97 walks. The outfield has LF Shin-Soo Choo (.259) and Grady Sizemore – two often injured talents. Sizemore has had five surgeries in the last three years, so get him off of any fantasy teams! RF Mike Brantley (.266, 7 HRs) got 451 at bats, but missed all of September with a broken hamate bone in his right hand, so there are huge question marks with this outfield.

And speaking of question marks, the pitching staff is a handful for new pitching coach Scott Radinsky. There is a potentially good one-two punch with submariner Justin Masterson (12-10, 216 IP, 3.21 ERA) and Ubaldo Jimenez (5.10 ERA, 27 walks in 65 IP). Jimenez was a one-year wonder in Colorado, but hasn’t found any control since, while Masterson is good, but has struggled with lefties his whole career, so managers load-up often. Last year, righties hit .210 off him, lefties .291.

Veteran 38-year-old Derek Lowe (9-17, 5.05 ERA) is far past his prime and returning to the AL won’t help. His command has been a problem, as his 3.37 walks-per-nine-innings ratio was his highest in seven years. 27-year-old Josh Tomlin (12-7) is an under-the-radar arm with a 4.25 ERA, few walks and fewer hits than innings pitched. 31-year-old Roberto Hernandez (5.25 ERA, 7-15) is another sinkerballer on the team, but is off a terrible campaign.

The bullpen is a mixed bag. They’ve got reliable Rafael Perez (3.00 ERA) and Vinnie Pestano (2.32) to help closer Chris Perez (3.32 ERA, 36 saves), but little depth. They hope Tony Sipp and side-arming righty Joe Smith can improve, along with hard-throwing righty Frank Herrmann. Getting some reliable innings out of Masterson, Jimenez and Tomlin will be the key, but 2011 looks like another season of 75-80 losses.

Chicago White Sox (79-83 in 2011) – Things will be quieter on the south side of Chicago that’s because loud mouth Ozzie Guillen is gone, replaced by new manager Robin Ventura! After winning 88 games in 2010, the White Sox slid below .500 and are rebuilding. After ranking No. 18 in runs scored, No. 15 in OBP and No. 19 in team ERA, there is a lot of work to do.

The infield has a good all-around player in SS Alexei Ramirez, who has led AL shortstops in homers and extra-base hits over the last three seasons, and is a terrific defensive player. He doesn’t have a lot of help, however, though this team ranked third in baseball in fewest runs allowed. 2B Gordon Beckham (10 HRs, .233) was a disappointment with his bat and 3B Brent Morel (10 HRs, .245)  is back after a weak rookie season – a better glove than bat.

First baseman Paul Konerko (31 HRs, 105 RBI) is still an offensive force, but is 36-years-old and didn’t get any protection from DH Adam Dunn (.159, 11 home runs), a free agent bust and a major flop. The bad news is that he’s back (or more to the point, they are stuck with his four-year, $56-million contract). Catcher A.J. Pierzynski (8 HRs, .287) is serviceable but on the downside of his career at age 35.

31-year old CF Alex Rios is a talent, but slumped badly with 11 HRs, 11 steals and a .227 average, while 23-year-old RF Dayan Viciedo gets his shot in the outfield after hitting .255 in 102 bats last season (1 HR). They are searching for a left fielder, and 34-year-old Kosuke Fukudome and 27-year-old Alejandro de Aza will battle for time.

As shaky as the offense looks, the pitching is worse. Reliable Mark Buehrle and Edwin Jackson are gone (327 innings) and the staff looks super-thin. Aging Jake Peavy (7-7, 4.92 EA) has battled injuries and hasn’t been the same since he left the NL, so look for Gavin Floyd (12-13, 4.37) and John Danks (8-12, 4.33) to carry the load after sub-par seasons. They turn their lonely eyes to lefthander Chris Sale (2.79 ERA), who was a reliever, along with Philip Humber (9-9, 3.75 ERA, 163 IP) and Zach Stewart, who was acquired for Jackson.

Veterans Matt Thornton, Jesse Crain and Will Ohman are aboard to fix the pen and they hope Sergio Santos (3.55, 30 saves) can repeat his numbers as closer, a position that is still in flux. There is little talent in the minors, so despite being close to .500 last season, look for the White Sox to slide in the wrong direction in 2012. They are a long way from that 2005 championship season.