MLB Pick Previews 2012 – AL West

Predicted Order of Finish
1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Texas Rangers
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Oakland Athletics

Los Angeles Angels (86-76 in 2011) – The Angels are ready to make a run at the Rangers. Los Angeles struggled offensively last season, finishing No. 17 in runs scored and No. 21 in on-base percentage, but was tops in the AL in team ERA (3.57), sixth best in all of baseball. For 2012 they loaded up on offense with the addition of 32-year-old 1B Albert Pujols, who smacked 37 homers and 99 RBI with the champion Cardinals. His bat will go a long way to improving things!

SS Erick Aybar (30 steals, 10 HRs), 2B Howard Kendrick (18 HRs, 14 steals), and CF Peter Bourjos (.271, 22 steals) will be table-setters, with a slew of talented sluggers alongside Pujols to drive them in. 38-year-old LF Bobby Abreu (21 steals, .353 on-base percentage) doesn’t have the power he used to, but still wears down opposing pitchers by drawing walks, a great addition anywhere in the lineup.

RF Torii Hunter (23 Hrs, 82 RBI) adds more power along with DH Vernon Wells, who stroked 25 homers and 15 doubles while getting healthy last season, though just a .218 average. 3B Alberto Callaspo (.288), 2B/SS Maicer Izturis, 1B Kendry Morales and catcher Chris Iannetta (14 HRs) give Mike Scioscia plenty of tools and flexibility, one of the best managers in the game. This offense is significantly upgraded.

The pitching staff looks as strong as 2011. 6-foot-7, 29-year-old Jered Weaver (18-8, 2.41 ERA) is an ace, fanning 198 in 235 innings and allowing only 182 hits. Dan Haren (16-10, 3.17) threw 238 innings and fanned 192 with only 33 walks, giving this team a dominant one-two punch. Ervin Santana (11-12, 3.38) has been up and down at times, but still threw 228 innings and struck out 178, while newcomer lefty C.J. Wilson was stolen from the rival Rangers where he went 16-7 with a 2.94 ERA and 206 Ks despite throwing in a small park.

The middle relief is deep with Scott Downs (1.34, 53 IP), Rich Thompson (3.00), veteran LaTroy Hawkins all setting up for 24-year-old Jordan Walden (32 saves, 2.98 ERA). Scioscia gets all his guys to exemplify the team-concept and loves to attack on the base paths to disrupt opposing pitchers. They won the World Series in 2002 and have had several playoff appearances since. October of 2012 will be another one.

Texas Rangers (96-66 in 2011) – Yes, it still hurts. Not many franchises lose back-to-back World Series, but October of 2011 was excruciating, blowing a sure championship in an epic Game 6 not seen since the 1986 Red Sox folded, also in Game 6. And what happened to the defending AL Champion Red Sox in 1987? Everything went wrong in a losing season. Texas hopes their hangover isn’t as bad in 2012.

There’s plenty of talent on a team that ranked third in baseball in runs scored, tops in batting average (.283), fifth in on-base percentage and second in slugging. Playing in a homer-happy park helps the offense and the pitching ranked No. 13 in team ERA in all of baseball.

The pitching will be the key for 2012. They lost 16-game winner C.J. Wilson to the Angels, so the four starters remaining are Matt Harrison (14-9, 3.39 ERA), Alexi Ogando (13-8, 3.51), lefty Derek Holland (16-5, 3.95) and Colby Lewis (14-10, 4.40). The plus side is that all four don’t walk anyone and are reliable, but none are dominant aces.

That’s where 25-year-old Yu Darvish comes in, a 6-foot-5 hurler from Japan. For his career, he has a 93-38 record, with an ERA of 1.99 and a 0.83 WHIP, fanning 1,259, while walking 333 in 1,268 1/3 innings. Last year in Japan Darvish was brilliant at 19-6, with 1.44 ERA, 276 strikeouts against just 36 walks in 232 innings. He won’t be doing that in the Ballpark in Arlington, however. His repertoire features a 94 mph fastball and a hard slider, complemented by a cutter, curve and a splitter.

Neftali Feliz saved 32 games in 62 innings last season with a 2.74 ERA, but they’ve tried him as a starter this spring because Joe Nathan arrives from the Twins as a free agent. The middle relief is deep, anchored by Mark Lowe (3.80 ERA) and Scott Feldman (3.94).

While the pitching looks good enough, the offense looks great again. 30-year-old CF Josh Hamilton (25 HRs, 31 doubles, .298) is a four-tool player that anchors a strong outfield alongside LF David Murphy (11 HRs, .275) and RF Nelson Cruz (29 HRs, 87 RBI). The infield has plenty of pop and defense with 3B Adrian Beltre (32 HRs, .296), 2B Ian Kinsler (32 HRs, 30 steals), 1B Michael Young (.338, 11 HRs) and SS Elvis Andrus (37 steals).

Throw in 30-year-old catcher Mike Napoli (30 homers, 75 RBI in 369 at bats) and this team can win in so many ways: pitching depth, base stealing, defense in the field and/or slugging it out. Expectations will be high for manger Ron Washington, but you have to wonder about the loss of their top starter and how to new kid from Japan will fit in. And, of course, there’s no denying the potential albatross hanging around their necks that will be a burden until this franchise wins it all. If you doubt that, ask Red Sox fans.

Seattle Mariners (67-95 in 2011) – The Mariners won 88 games as recently as 2007, but they’ve bottomed out since then, with a lousy offense and a revolving door of aces, trading away Cliff Lee and Michael Pineda. Seattle was No. 30 in baseball in runs scored last season, No. 30 in batting average (.233) and No. 30 in on-base percentage.

That’s why they traded Pineda for promising 22-year-old catcher, Jesus Montero. He has had a great spring and is projected to be the No. 5 hitter in the Mariners’ mostly young lineup. Having some bats to provide some thump is imperative, as they have two potentially strong speedsters atop the order.

38-year-old RF Ichiro Suzuki comes off another terrific season: .276, 40 steals, 184 hits. He is past his prime, sure, but is still a strong weapon, and let’s not forget 10 Gold Gloves and one MVP! 34-year old 3B Chone Figgins (11 steals, .188) has been a bust, but they will try him at leadoff again and in 2010 he hit .259 with 42 steals, so it’s worth a try.

The infield has contact hitters with 1B Mike Carp (12 HRS in 290 at bats, .276 average), SS Brendan Ryan (3 HRs, 13 steals, .248) and 2B Dustin Ackley (.273) but is short on power. 1B /DH Justin Smoak (15 HRs, .234) is average, while CF Franklin Gutierrez stole 13 bases in half a season, but had a miserable .261 on-base percentage. Gutierrez battled injuries late last season that wore him down, so he could be better.

The ballpark like Safeco hurts offense, but helps pitchers, and the Mariners have one great arm already and outstanding young arms on the farm. 25-year-old Felix Hernandez will turn 26 in April, but he has been around a long time and is an ace – the top pitcher in the AL. After winning the Cy Young Award in 2010 he went 14-14 with a 3.47 ERA last season, fanning 222 in 233 innings. Oh, if the Yankees could have traded for this guy King Felix might win 30!

It’s a sharp dropoff after that. With Pineda gone, Jason Vargas (10-13, 201 IP, 4.25 ERA) steps into the No. 2 spot and 23-year-old Blake Beavan (5-6, 4.27 ERA) gave them 97 innings and only 15 walks last summer. Charlie Furbush (3-7, 6.62 ERA) gave up 11 homers in 61 innings and veteran Kevin Millwood can get by in this big park as he has excellent control, but will likely struggle badly on the road as a starter.

Japanese import 30-year-old Hisashi Iwakuma has been a starter, but will begin the year in the pen. Veteran lefty George Sherill (3.00 ERA) and Hong-Chih Kuo provide bullpen relief that will dominate lefties. 29-year-old closer Brandon League was a beast with 37 saves, a 2.79 ERA and only 10 walks in 61 innings. This team has a rare ace in Hernandez, but little else, so they are several years away from improving much in this tough division. A third-place finish should be the goal.

Oakland Athletics (74-88 in 2011) – After winning 96 games in 2006, the small-market A’s bottomed out in 2007 with 76 wins and have been roughly a .500 team ever since, including 81-81 in 2010 and a losing record last season. Offense was again a major problem ranking No. 24 in the league in batting and No. 20 in runs and No. 22 in OBP. The A’s were actually good at home (43-38), but was 31-50 on the road as their pitchers struggle away from their big home park.

It’s been a revolving door of free agent bats that haven’t produced the last five years, with Mark Kotsay, Nick Swisher, Milton Bradley and Shannon Stewart, so now they are trying (gulp) Manny Ramirez! As if this franchise doesn’t have enough trouble.

But they won’t see Manny for a while because of a suspension (50 games), so no one will notice when he makes his debut for a last-place team. 26-year-old lefty 1B Brandon Allen (.205) is penciled in at first, with 2B Adam Rosales (21 at bats) and SS Cliff Pennington (.264, 14 steals), as weak an infield as you could fine.

Catcher Kurt Suzuki hasn’t lived-up to the hype and is off a season where he hit .236 with 14 homers. The outfield looks weak with LF Coco Crisp (.265, 42 steals), but the big story is 26-year-old Cuban Yoenis Cespedes, who will play center field. He signed for $36 million (4 years) and is an unproven gamble. Former Boston RF Josh Reddick is in the mix, but all-in-all this looks like one of the worst offenses in the game.

They had better hope the pitching carries the load, which was No. 10 in team ERA in the majors last year. Brandon McCarthy (9-9) is the only established starter and threw 170 innings with a 3.32 ERA, not exactly an innings-eater. Dallas Braden (3.00 ERA) was a reliever last season, but can start and they bring aboard 38-year-old Bartolo Colon (8-10), who was pretty good with the Yankees last season with a 4.00 ERA. Playing in a big park like Oakland could actually help him put him good numbers, though wins will be tough to come by with this offense.

They lost closer Andrew Bailey (24 saves), so 36-year-old lefty Brian Fuentes (12 saves) steps in, with Jerry Blevins (2.86), Grant Balfour (2.47) and Tyson Ross (2.75) decent options in middle relief.  Oakland’s farm system has been able to turn out quality arms, but no good bats. The A’s won 91, 88 and 96 games in the middle of the last decade and won the AL West in 2006, but this organization has heads straight down since then. They don’t have the offense to compete in the competitive AL West, and might be worth a look under the total, especially at home in their pitcher-friendly park.