By: Joe Freda
Buffalo outdueled Arizona down a tight stretch of last Sunday’s 19-16 overtime victory, collecting as a five-point road dog. Bills running back Fred Jackson took in a one-yard touchdown to give his squad a 16-13 lead, while kicker Rian Lindell connected a 25-yard chip shot in the battle’s extra minutes to clinch the team’s win.
The Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans both notched upset victories in last week’s NFL betting action, edging out the Arizona Cardinals and Pittsburgh Steelers, respectfully. Sunday’s card has Tennessee heading north to meet the Bills.
Bills To Cash At Home vs. Titans
Joe Freda’s 2012 NFL Record: 3-3 (-0.30)
Bills triumph in overtime
Buffalo outdueled Arizona down a tight stretch of last Sunday’s 19-16 overtime victory, collecting as a five-point road dog. Bills running back Fred Jackson took in a one-yard touchdown to give his squad a 16-13 lead, while kicker Rian Lindell connected a 25-yard chip shot in the battle’s extra minutes to clinch the team’s win.
Jackson united with backfield mate C.J. Spiller for 141 rushing yards on a combined 28 carries, with Spiller also adding one touchdown. Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick connected on 18-of-32 passes, guiding his side to 19 first downs in its 31 minutes of possession.
The contest’s combined 35 points dipped below the ‘total’ of 44, dropping the OVER to 4-2 in the Bills’ first six games. Buffalo’s defense held the Cardinals to 332 yards, registering five sacks en route to safety Jairus Byrd grabbing a pair of interceptions.
Titans surge past Steelers
Tennessee played a back-and-fourth affair in last Thursday’s 26-23 victory over the Steelers, cashing as a 5 ½-point home dog. Titans quarterback Matt Hasselbeck tossed a late touchdown to wide out Kenny Britt to tie the game, 23-23, followed by Rob Bironas capping off a 4-for-4 night with a 40-yard field goal as regulation time expired.
Hasselbeck finished with 290 yards through the air, connecting on 25-of-44 passes. Tennessee’s Kendall Wright notched a team-high six catches, while running back Chris Johnson dashed for 91 yards on his 19 carries out of the backfield.
The battle’s combined 49 points leaped above the 43 ½-point ‘total,’ lifting the OVER to 4-1 in the Titans’ last five contests. Tennessee’s defense allowed 356 passing yards, while giving up one touchdown in Pittsburgh’s three red zone trips.
Back the Bills as home ‘chalk’
Sports books opened Buffalo as a 3 ½-point home favorite for Sunday’s 1 p.m. (ET) affair, with early action on the Tennessee shifting the number to three. NFL oddsmakers first set the ‘total’ at 46 ½, with mixed wagers initially leaving the digits unchanged.
I am adding Buffalo minus the points to my afternoon’s card, looking for the Bills to light it up with their return to Ralph Wilson Stadium’s turf after a pair of road spots on grass.
Buffalo has notched 31.5 PPG in its two home dates, while cashing its sole spot as home ‘chalk’ in a 35-17 spanking of the Kansas City Chiefs, five weeks ago. Bills running back C.J. Spiller leads the league in yards per carry (7.6 YPR), setting up what should be a field day against a Titans defense giving up 129.5 YPG on the ground.
Tennessee has also had its share of home-road disparity, outscored by a combined margin of 106-31 in its trio of road contests. The setbacks have led the Titans to a 0-3 ATS mark away from home, despite receiving six or more points from NFL betting shops in each affair.
Look for the Bills to get the money in a sizable cover at the windows here, with the Titans’ extra rest from their Thursday spot not helping much in another looming shootout.
NFL Pick: Buffalo -3.5 ---
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