понедельник, 28 мая 2012 г.

MLB Pick: Reds and Pirates go ‘under’


James McDonald of the Pirates has quietly pitched as well as any pitcher in baseball this year, while Bronson Arroyo of the Reds is coming off of a nice effort vs. Atlanta last out. Do not expect much scoring so go ‘under’ Monday.

Look for a low scoring affair on Memorial Day afternoon when Bronson Arroyo and the Cincinnati Reds (27-20 overall, 12-11 away) take on James McDonald and the Pittsburgh Pirates (23-34 overall, 14-10 home) as the National League Central rivals open up a three-game series from PNC Park in Pittsburgh, PA at 1:35 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -113.

The Reds have now moved into first place in the division with a 1½-game lead over the second place St. Louis Cardinals, while the Pirates are surprisingly in third place four games back with a chance to reach the .500 mark today despite ranking dead last in the National League with a woeful .219 team batting average.

James McDonaldThe Pirates scored 10 runs yesterday while completing a three-game sweep of the reeling Chicago Cubs after losing two out of three to the New York Mets to begin this home stand, but that scoring outburst was obviously atypical for a team that is averaging 3.53 runs per game. Truer to form, the Bucs had scored three runs or less in their previous four games and we expect a return to that form today.

Pittsburgh is on the verge of .500 solely because of pitching, as it ranks third in the Major Leagues with a 3.27 team ERA. Young McDonald has been a huge part of that, as with very little fanfare, he has pitched as well as any pitcher in the National League this year.

McDonald has shown glimpses of greatness since coming over to the Pirates from the Los Angeles Dodgers two years ago, but he has struggled with inconsistency. The 27-year-old appears to be peaking while putting it all together this year though, as he has a 2.51 ERA and a great 0.99 WHIP in 57.1 innings with the league hitting just .198 against him.

Perhaps most impressively, McDonald has 58 strikeouts against only 18 walks and he has allowed only two home runs in nine starts, helping him move up to fourth in the majors in FIP behind the likes of Gio Gonzalez, Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander! He received a no-decision in another fine outing vs. the Mets in his last start Tuesday, allowing one run on four hits with eights strikeouts in seven innings.

The Reds are on fire, having won eight of their last nine games to overtake the Cardinals for the division lead. They went 6-1 on their just completed home stand, first sweeping four games from the Atlanta Braves and then winning the last two games vs. the Colorado Rockies this weekend after dropping the series opener on Friday.

Arroyo tossed a gem vs. the Braves in his last start, allowing only one run and four hits in 6.2 innings with seven strikeouts and only two walks, bouncing back nicely from a shaky outing vs. the New York Yankees in his previous start. Furthermore, Arroyo has done his best pitching on the road, where he is 2-1 with a nice 2.43 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in four starts covering 29.2 innings away from home, with road opponents hitting only .209 against him.

He is facing a Pittsburgh lineup that has been at its worst vs. right-handed pitchers, batting only .209 while averaging a pathetic 2.93 runs per nine innings against them.

Thus, look for both pitchers to keep the opposing offenses at bay as these teams go ‘under’ on Monday.    
 Reds, Pirates ‘under’ 7½ (-113) +++

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