The Boston Bruins are in a Game 7. Where have I seen this before? They won all three Game 7’s en route to a Stanley Cup title last season and five of their last six playoff series have gone to a seventh and deciding game. They’ll have the edge in experience.
But how much does that matter? The Washington Capitals were supposed to be the inferior team in this series – especially with an allegedly flimsy 22-year-old netminder – but that has been far from the case. Every single game has been decided by one goal, which is the first time that’s ever happened in NHL history.
There’s no pressure on the Capitals in this spot. The Bruins are the Cup champs and they’re the ones that were expected to go further. Washington should be very comfortable in this spot.
The Washington Capitals can win because…
They’ve had plenty of success in Boston this season. The Capitals won four times in five visits to Boston during the regular season, and in their first round playoff series, they’ve won two of the three games there.
The Capitals have not been intimidated in this series whatsoever. They’ve been outhit and outmuscled at times, but they’ve still been in every single contest. As a matter of fact, one might say they’ve been the better team as Boston has won twice in overtime and needed a late third period goal from Zdeno Chara to get their other win.
The other key here is that Tim Thomas appears to be struggling a little bit. Last season's Conn Smythe trophy winner has not been quite so invincible of late and, while he frustrated most teams last season, the Capitals are very confident they can get at least two or three goals off him. Thomas allowed just three goals in the first two games of the series but has allowed 12 in the last four. He needs to be a difference-maker and that’s simply not happening right now.
The Boston Bruins can win because…
They’ve got the experience. As mentioned, they’re the defending Cup champs and they’ve played in quite a few Game 7’s before. They’ll know what to expect.
The Capitals don’t have a good track record in decisive games like this. Throughout the franchise’s history, they’ve played in nine of them and won just twice.
Moreover, the Bruins finally saw their top line wake up in Game 6, which can only be a good omen for Game 7. In Game 6, Tyler Seguin notched his first two points of the series while Milan Lucic and David Krejci picked up a pair of points. The Bruins have made it to Game 7 largely without the help of their top line but, if they play well, the Bruins are likely to win.
Caps goaltender Braden Holtby hasn’t appeared nervous often in this series, but if ever there were a time to be nervous, it would be in a Game 7 on the road. Boston will be confident going into this game while the Caps might be a bit more fragile mentally.
Outlook & NHL betting prediction:
Through six games in this series, the Capitals and the Bruins have both scored 14 goals. The Caps power play has gone 3-for-18 while the Bruins have gone 2-for-20. The Bruins have led for 44:23 while the Capitals have led for 68:00. All six games have been decided by one goal, and on only one occasion has a team has led by two goals.
This has been a close series throughout, which probably means Game 7 will be as well.
Normally, the Bruins would get the edge playing at home, but they have the pressure of expectations. The Capitals are short on experience but they’re not expected to win, so they’re on cruise control.
There’s value with the Capitals because they’re more than capable of winning; considering how they’ve played in Boston this season, it's hard understanding how NHL odds makers have them at +170 dogs. Given how close this series has been, NHL bettors might find great value in taking the Caps.
On top of that, we’ll play the OVER. Thomas isn’t playing well, and Holtby has been giving up his share of goals too. Three of the last four games in this series have gone OVER, so I’ll take that too.
NHL Picks: Capitals & OVER +++& ---
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