Baseball has long been viewed as a statistics sport, something to pour over, column after column, during those long, summer months. We used to study the newspapers. Now, we study webpages.
But the desired results are the same. As total bettors, you want to give yourself the best advantage to win as much as possible through the grind of 162 games.
One of the best feathers you can put in your cap these days is ballpark statistics. Studying and analyzing how many runs a certain stadium produces on a daily basis can be a useful tool for over/under handicapping
Here are the ballparks that averaged the fewest runs scored last year. You might find a surprise or two:
Team: Philadelphia Phillies.
Stadium: Citizens Bank Park.
Average Runs Per Home Game: 7.65.
Home Over-Under Record: 36-39-6.
Wasn’t long ago that critics were calling “Citizens” the Coors Field of the North. Home runs were flying out of there during the early days. But now that the Phillies focus is on pitching, times have changed. Philadelphia no longer has big boppers. Ryan Howard is one, but he will start the season on the disabled list, and Raul Ibanez is with the Yankees now.
The Phillies draw walks now, steal bases, and try to grind out just enough offense to make their star starters -- Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels -- 20-game winners. Clearly, they’d still love to have some heavy lumber in the lineup, but they are what they are.
And along the way, they’ve become a decent under buy, like it or not. With the makeup of the team, it’s hard to argue. When you throw out those kinds of pitchers on a daily basis, you’re going to compile unders no matter where you play.
Team: Oakland Athletics.
Stadium: O.co Coliseum.
Average Runs Per Home Game: 7.95.
Home Over-Under Record: 43-30-8.
Call it what you will, this stadium, which loses names more than the Athletics traditionally lose stars to free agency, has long been a haven for unders. It's now O.co Coliseum, and in the past, it was the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Network Associates Coliseum, McAfee Coliseum, and Overstock.com Coliseum.
But it doesn't matter. For the totals player, it's big, there's a ton of foul ground, and that leads to more unproductive outs. It helps, of course, that Oakland has been in love with the "Moneyball" approach that keeps star power out of uniform.
But oddmakers are an intelligent crew. They’ve seen what goes on in Oakland and so, traditionally, they adjust their lines. Which is why the Athletics were solid over buys last season at home, despite the fact that they couldn’t average eight runs a game.
Team: Seattle Mariners.
Stadium: Safeco Field.
Average Runs Per Home Game: 7.02.
Home Over-Under Record: 32-43-6.
Lots of reasons for unders in the Pacific Northwest. One, the books traditionally don’t value Safeco has much as they do O.co and that give totals players an edge. Two, the Mariners -- with Ichiro leading the way for what seems like forever -- have long been a doubles team, and not a homer run team.
And three -- and this is very underrated -- many, many East teams hit Seattle at the tail end of West Coast road trips. That means they’re worn out, they’re tired, and they miss their bedrooms. That often leads to some weary bats.
Let’s not forget the pitching, too. That played a big part in that 7.02 average. The Mariners had a team ERA of 3.90 last season at home, and when you hit just .233 at home as a club, you’re going to end up in under-land a bunch.
Team: San Diego Padres.
Stadium: Petco Park.
Average Runs Per Home Game: 6.69.
Home Over-Under Record: 41-37-3.
This one should be easy to figure out. The Padres lost Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox before last season, no batter had more than 25 RBIs at home last year, and in 81 games at Petco, the Padres compiled a .237 team batting average.
But again, beware of the books. Over the long haul of a season, nothing’s going to get by them. Lines were adjusted, and overs were hit simply because the totals were so low. You can always use that to your advantage, too. Jump on the over, grab that value, and see where it takes you. Your call.
On either side, though -- over or under, your preference -- you can rely on the consistency of Petco. There are very few shootouts in San Diego, and there are also a lot of afternoon, weekday games on Wednesdays and Thursdays, so teams can get to their next destination in time. They are known as getaway days, and they often feature less potent lineups because the stars tend to get a little rest before another series begins. Keep an eye out for those.
Team: San Francisco Giants.
Stadium: AT&T Park.
Average Runs Per Home Game: 6.01.
Home Over-Under Record: 30-48-3.
OK, here’s the bookmaker’s nightmare. There’s only so low they can go on a total from one night to the next. And when you have a loaded pitching staff, and you play out West where opponents get tired, that’s going to lead to some unders.
That’s what happened with the Giants here. Averaging 6.01 runs per game in AT&T, the books simply could not overcompensate. You’re not going to see many 5.5 over-under run lines in baseball these days. The typical AT&T line is seven or so, and with four pitchers in double-digit wins, including Tim Lincecum, and a home team ERA of 3.20, there’s not much you can do but think under.
It also helps that Pablo Sandoval lead the team in home RBIs with just 29, and the team combined to hit just .242 at home. And that doesn’t figure to change this season, so continue to monitor the Giants as perhaps the best home under buy in baseball.
But the desired results are the same. As total bettors, you want to give yourself the best advantage to win as much as possible through the grind of 162 games.
One of the best feathers you can put in your cap these days is ballpark statistics. Studying and analyzing how many runs a certain stadium produces on a daily basis can be a useful tool for over/under handicapping
Here are the ballparks that averaged the fewest runs scored last year. You might find a surprise or two:
Team: Philadelphia Phillies.
Stadium: Citizens Bank Park.
Average Runs Per Home Game: 7.65.
Home Over-Under Record: 36-39-6.
Wasn’t long ago that critics were calling “Citizens” the Coors Field of the North. Home runs were flying out of there during the early days. But now that the Phillies focus is on pitching, times have changed. Philadelphia no longer has big boppers. Ryan Howard is one, but he will start the season on the disabled list, and Raul Ibanez is with the Yankees now.
The Phillies draw walks now, steal bases, and try to grind out just enough offense to make their star starters -- Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels -- 20-game winners. Clearly, they’d still love to have some heavy lumber in the lineup, but they are what they are.
And along the way, they’ve become a decent under buy, like it or not. With the makeup of the team, it’s hard to argue. When you throw out those kinds of pitchers on a daily basis, you’re going to compile unders no matter where you play.
Team: Oakland Athletics.
Stadium: O.co Coliseum.
Average Runs Per Home Game: 7.95.
Home Over-Under Record: 43-30-8.
Call it what you will, this stadium, which loses names more than the Athletics traditionally lose stars to free agency, has long been a haven for unders. It's now O.co Coliseum, and in the past, it was the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Network Associates Coliseum, McAfee Coliseum, and Overstock.com Coliseum.
But it doesn't matter. For the totals player, it's big, there's a ton of foul ground, and that leads to more unproductive outs. It helps, of course, that Oakland has been in love with the "Moneyball" approach that keeps star power out of uniform.
But oddmakers are an intelligent crew. They’ve seen what goes on in Oakland and so, traditionally, they adjust their lines. Which is why the Athletics were solid over buys last season at home, despite the fact that they couldn’t average eight runs a game.
Team: Seattle Mariners.
Stadium: Safeco Field.
Average Runs Per Home Game: 7.02.
Home Over-Under Record: 32-43-6.
Lots of reasons for unders in the Pacific Northwest. One, the books traditionally don’t value Safeco has much as they do O.co and that give totals players an edge. Two, the Mariners -- with Ichiro leading the way for what seems like forever -- have long been a doubles team, and not a homer run team.
And three -- and this is very underrated -- many, many East teams hit Seattle at the tail end of West Coast road trips. That means they’re worn out, they’re tired, and they miss their bedrooms. That often leads to some weary bats.
Let’s not forget the pitching, too. That played a big part in that 7.02 average. The Mariners had a team ERA of 3.90 last season at home, and when you hit just .233 at home as a club, you’re going to end up in under-land a bunch.
Team: San Diego Padres.
Stadium: Petco Park.
Average Runs Per Home Game: 6.69.
Home Over-Under Record: 41-37-3.
This one should be easy to figure out. The Padres lost Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox before last season, no batter had more than 25 RBIs at home last year, and in 81 games at Petco, the Padres compiled a .237 team batting average.
But again, beware of the books. Over the long haul of a season, nothing’s going to get by them. Lines were adjusted, and overs were hit simply because the totals were so low. You can always use that to your advantage, too. Jump on the over, grab that value, and see where it takes you. Your call.
On either side, though -- over or under, your preference -- you can rely on the consistency of Petco. There are very few shootouts in San Diego, and there are also a lot of afternoon, weekday games on Wednesdays and Thursdays, so teams can get to their next destination in time. They are known as getaway days, and they often feature less potent lineups because the stars tend to get a little rest before another series begins. Keep an eye out for those.
Team: San Francisco Giants.
Stadium: AT&T Park.
Average Runs Per Home Game: 6.01.
Home Over-Under Record: 30-48-3.
OK, here’s the bookmaker’s nightmare. There’s only so low they can go on a total from one night to the next. And when you have a loaded pitching staff, and you play out West where opponents get tired, that’s going to lead to some unders.
That’s what happened with the Giants here. Averaging 6.01 runs per game in AT&T, the books simply could not overcompensate. You’re not going to see many 5.5 over-under run lines in baseball these days. The typical AT&T line is seven or so, and with four pitchers in double-digit wins, including Tim Lincecum, and a home team ERA of 3.20, there’s not much you can do but think under.
It also helps that Pablo Sandoval lead the team in home RBIs with just 29, and the team combined to hit just .242 at home. And that doesn’t figure to change this season, so continue to monitor the Giants as perhaps the best home under buy in baseball.
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