Atlanta Falcons vs. Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions just look like a team that’s done. It’s hard to believe that a team as talented as this is 4-10 and riding a six-game losing streak but records don’t lie. They are 4-10 for a reason. On offense, they can’t run the football and they don’t have secondary receiving options other than Calvin Johnson. On defense, they can’t get any stops as they’ve allowed an average of 32 points per game over their last six. On top of that, they continue to be very undisciplined with penalties and turnovers. And now they host the top team in the NFC.
For the Lions, their 38-10 loss to Arizona last season just shows that they’ve mailed it in this season. They are disappointed and tapped out. Considering they made the playoffs last year, that’s understandable. However, there are still two games to be played and now they have to host the Falcons, who come in to town with the best record in the NFC and a prolific passing game.
The Lions just want the season to be over while the Falcons need a win to sew up the top seed in the NFC. I see the best NFL betting value here with the Falcons.
NFL Pick: Falcons -3 at Bodog
ndianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs
It’s hard to back the Kansas City Chiefs in any scenario when you consider that they have virtually no offense. Yes, the Indianapolis Colts have been turnover prone this season and are coming off a tough divisional loss. However, they are still 9-5 and far more competent and capable than the Chiefs.
The Colts have feasted on sub-.500 teams this season as they have covered six of seven spreads against losing teams this year. The Chiefs have scored just seven points in the last two weeks and when you consider that those two games came against Oakland and Cleveland, there is serious cause for concern. Quarterback Brady Quinn has just 295 passing yards combined in the last two weeks, which is pitiful.
As long as the Colts just play their basic game plan and let the Chiefs self-destruct, this will be an easy win and cover for them.
NFL Pick: Colts -6.5 at Bodog
New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars are a bad team to begin with but now they find themselves in a tough spot. They will be hosting the New England Patriots this week, who are coming off a disappointing loss at home on national television after the San Francisco 49ers punked them last Sunday night.
The Jags have played very poorly at home this season as they’ve covered the spread just once in front of their home audience. Aside from a seven-point loss to the Jets, they’ve lost all of their home games by at least 17 points with an average margin of defeat at 19.3.
The bottom line in this matchup is the shorthanded Jags will be taking on a pissed off Patriots team. New England could probably cover two touchdowns anyways but now they’ll be even more focused to do it. The Jags are one of the worst pass-rushing teams in the NFL, which means Tom Brady will have all day to make decisions. Take the Patriots.
NFL Pick: Patriots -14 at Bovada
Raiders vs. Carolina
The Raiders can win because:
They finally got their running game going last week.
If you mapped out Oakland’s road to success at the beginning of the season, the blueprint would have looked like the running of Darren McFadden – and others – carrying the team with supplemental performances from quarterback Carson Palmer and the passing game. Last week, that came to fruition. McFadden picked up 110 yards on 30 carries and Mike Goodson had 89 yards on 12 carries. In total, the team had 203 rushing yards and the passing game added in 182 yards – and most importantly – no turnovers.
The Panthers rush defense is giving up 4.4 yards per carry and 117.9 per game. Only six teams have given up more rushing first downs than the Panthers. Clearly, this is an area that the Raiders can exploit.
If their running game gets going this week, they can hang around in this game and cover the spread.
The Panthers can win because:
The Raiders failed to score a touchdown while hosting the Kansas City Chiefs last week – how much better can they really fare on the road in Carolina? Throw in the fact that the Raiders are a West Coast team playing at 1:00 PM ET, which is 10:00 AM their time, and they might be out of this game before they even wake up.
The Panthers have won three of four and are appear to be one of the hottest teams in the league. Since firing offensive coordinator Brian Murphy, quarterback Cam Newton has hit his stride. After suffering a sophomore slump early in the year, Newton has accounted for 13 touchdowns and no interceptions in the last five weeks. The Panthers have won three of four while scoring 30 or more in the three wins. The Raiders have the NFL’s worst-ranked scoring defense, allowing 28.7 points per game. Newton should have no problem shredding them.
The Panthers are playing with plenty of confidence and they’re looking like the team they were supposed to be at the beginning of the season. The Raiders are coming off a win over the Chiefs but had lost six straight before that. Their offense hasn’t scored more than 20 points in six weeks. They’ll have a tough time keeping up in this one.
Outlook & NFL Football Betting Prediction:
The Raiders had a good rushing game last week but they were ranked 30th in that category going into the game. While they had 203 rushing yards last week, their next-best total was 149 all the way back in Week 6 against Atlanta.
The Panthers are hot right now and should have no problem scoring at will against the team that allows the most points in the NFL. The Raiders will throw a few jabs back and stay close early on but Carolina will finish with a number of unanswered scores and win the game. Look for Carolina to win handily for your NFL picks.
NFL Football Picks: Panthers -9 at Will Hill
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