вторник, 20 ноября 2012 г.

NFL Picks: Week 12 Value Picks

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Week 11 was very positive for us as the Baltimore Ravens, New Orleans Saints and Cleveland Browns all covered – relatively easily, I might add. Thankfully, we didn’t have to sweat any of them as each team was covering from start to finish. Now why can’t it be that easy every week?

Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys 
RG3The Dallas Cowboys have won two straight and are now just one game behind the New York Giants for first in the NFC East, but don’t count me as one of their believers. Sunday’s win over the hapless Cleveland Browns was very lucky as the Cowboys were completely outplayed in the first half and very likely should have lost. 
The Cowboys can’t run the ball right now, and they can’t pass with any consistency. The offensive line is riddled with injuries and is not performing well, as evidenced by the Cleveland Browns’ seven sacks in Week 11. The defense has been porous too. I’m not sold on the Cowboys last two wins here as they barely scraped by.
The Redskins looked very fresh coming out of their bye week as they ripped the Eagles 31-6. The Cowboys are not a good home team, and Washington should be able to play them tough. I’ll take the points in what should be a close game. 
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars 
Although the Tennessee Titans are coming off a bye week, I’m not entirely sure that they should be laying three points on the road in Jacksonville. Although the Titans have scraped out three more wins than Jacksonville, I view these teams as virtually equals.
Although the Titans got a big 37-3 win over Miami two weeks ago, many people apparently are forgetting that they lost 51-20 to Chicago the week before. And prior to that “stellar” defensive effort against Miami, we had been talking about the Titans as being one of the worst defensive teams in NFL history. 
Jacksonville isn’t great, but Chad Henne can apparently complete passes (something Blaine Gabbert can’t do), and they should be pretty confident after nearly knocking off the Houston Texans on the road. 
Oddly, the Jags have been better on the road than at home this year, but this team should have some more confidence if Henne gets the nod. As long as that’s the case, take the points here. 

Seattle Seahawks vs. Miami Dolphins 
Now that we’ve gone through 11 weeks of action, we can take a look back at the Miami Dolphins accomplishments and failures of the 2012 season and get a better snapshot. They have beaten the Oakland Raiders, Cincinnati Bengals, St. Louis Rams and New York Jets. I think a lot of us overrated them when they were 4-3 and in playoff contention. ,
They are who we thought they were: a team with decent defense but an offense that was severely shorthanded. Rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill has appeared to have regressed with just one touchdown and five interceptions in the last two weeks. Now he’s got to go up against a tough Seattle Seahawks defense – and team – that is coming off their bye week. 
I just don’t see the Dolphins getting much done on offense in this spot, which means Seattle should be able to take this one on the road

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