By: Jason Lake
Millions of people watched that late afternoon start, and they had to be impressed by Seattle’s work in the dying minutes. After the Seahawks closed within six points, the defense forced Tom Brady and the Patriots to punt on consecutive drives, including a three-and-out with 3:02 remaining that took just 14 seconds off the clock. The Patriots, by the way, were the most efficient offense in the league going into Week 6.
How low can the total drop for Thursday night’s matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers? It’s already lower than a late-night televangelist selling miracle snake bellies to the sick and the old. Check out our NFL picks play on the total.
It looks like people are getting the memo about the Seahawks (4-2 SU and ATS). Last month, the nation watched in disbelief as Seattle received some divine intervention to beat the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football. But there were no replacement refs this past Sunday when the ‘Hawks came back to beat the New England Patriots 24-23.
NFL odds currently list the Niners as -7.5 favorites at home. The total has budged since openinga 37.5.
Under Wear
Millions of people watched that late afternoon start, and they had to be impressed by Seattle’s work in the dying minutes. After the Seahawks closed within six points, the defense forced Tom Brady and the Patriots to punt on consecutive drives, including a three-and-out with 3:02 remaining that took just 14 seconds off the clock. The Patriots, by the way, were the most efficient offense in the league going into Week 6.
Funny thing about that game: It was the first OVER for the Seahawks this year. Russell Wilson’s TD strike to Sidney Rice with 1:18 remaining was enough to vault the posted total of 42.5 points. Seattle scored more than 20 points for just the second time this season, and the Patriots are the only team so far to hang more than 20 on the ‘Hawks.
That hasn’t deterred people from opening the vault for the UNDER this week. The total for Thursday night’s game (8:20 p.m. ET, NFLN) opened at 39.5 points Sunday night, and within two hours, the books had seen enough – they moved the total all the way down to 37.5 points. Our consensus numbers show 69 percent support for the UNDER despite the reduction.
Low
Has the market over-corrected on the UNDER? Well, the first five Seattle games would have gone UNDER even with a total of 37.5 up on the board. The combined final scores of those five contests: 36, 34, 26, 31 and 28. The Patriots usually score that much just by themselves.
There’s also the matter of the 49ers (4-2 SU and ATS). They scored just three points last Sunday against the New York Giants, whose defense isn’t nearly as strong as usual with all those injuries on the line and in the secondary. The UNDER got paid in that game, and in three of San Francisco’s last four to improve to 3-2-1 on the year.
But hold the phone for a second. The Niners offense was rolling up the score on people before the G-Men got a hold of them. San Francisco was No. 3 on the offensive efficiency charts going into Week 6; the combined scores up until then were 52, 46, 37, 34 and 48. And that 34 was courtesy of a 34-0 shutout of the New York Jets.
West Coast Bias
The UNDER is generally a good value pick, since the betting public worships offense and tends to bet for desired outcomes. And conditions for the UNDER have rarely been better than in Seattle. The Emerald City exists almost entirely in its own little universe. Unless you’re from the Pacific Northwest, you probably didn’t hear much about the Seahawks defense before now.
So much for that advantage. As I wrote in my companion article on Thursday’s opening odds, Seattle is getting the bulk of the early action on the pointspread, checking in at 58 percent consensus. And, oh my goodness, Seattle CB Richard Sherman has just made the national sports pages by ripping on Brady and the Pats, calling them a “gimmick” offense.
I still like Seattle to beat the 7-point spread, but I can’t go with the underdog-UNDER parlay, not with the total this low. You probably won’t see the books go all the way to 37 (the second-most common combined score in the NFL, just a shade behind 41), but pay close attention just in case someone does.
My Pick: OVER 37.5 ---
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