Carlos Villanueva is quietly having a fine season while pitching for a losing Toronto team, and he has fared well in both of his starts vs. Tampa Bay this year. He gives the Jays value at a big price vs. James Shields and the Rays Friday.
There could be a nice upset in store Friday night when Carlos Villanueva and the Toronto Blue Jays (66-82 overall, 30-44 away) take on James Shields and the Tampa Bay Rays (80-70 overall, 41-34 home) in the first game of a weekend three-game series from Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL at 7:10 ET.
The posted money line at Bodog has Toronto as a huge underdog for this contest at current odds of +190.
The Rays kept their feint playoff hopes alive on Thursday by overcoming a 4-1 ninth-inning deficit vs. the Boston Red Sox and winning 7-4 on a walk-off three-run homer by B.J. Upton. However, Tampa Bay is still 5½ games out of a wild card spot with only 12 games remaining, and things will not get any easier vs. Villanueva this evening.
Now granted, the Blue Jays have dropped back to last place in the America League East by losing five of their last six games, and they were just swept in a three-game series by the New York Yankees in the Bronx, but they are facing a far less formidable offense this weekend, they have a hot pitcher on the mound and they should get a boost tonight with Yunel Escobar expected back in the lineup.
Escobar was suspended for the three games vs. the Yankees for displaying a homophobic slur written in Spanish on his eye black during a game last weekend. Escobar may have only nine home runs and 49 RBI, but that is still more pop than the rest of the Toronto shortstops have.
The real key to an upset here however is Villanueva, who has managed to go 7-5 while pitching for a last place team with a good 3.42 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Villanueva has been a model of consistency since returning to the starting rotation following 18 relief appearances, as he has allowed three runs or less in 11 of his 14 starts since the end of June.
That stretch includes two Quality Starts vs. the Rays, including tossing six scoreless innings in a 2-0 win against them in Toronto on August 30th while allowing only five hits and striking out seven. He is facing a Tampa Bay offense that ranks only 27th in the Major Leagues in hitting with just at .238 batting average, leaving the Rays ahead of only the Houston Astros, Oakland Athletics and Seattle Mariners in that category.
Now the Rays do have a solid starter of their own here in Shields, who is 14-9 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. He does have only two Complete Games this season though after leading the Major Leagues with 11 Complete Games last year. Shields was not his sharpest in his last start vs. the Yankees on Saturday, permitting four earned runs on six hits plus one walk in 6.1 innings.
As you can see, although Shields has won 14 games, it is Villanueva that has the slightly better ERA and WHIP, and his recent success vs. the Rays should continue tonight given that Tampa Bay is batting just .223 here at home for the entire season. Thus, the Blue Jays appear to hold all the value at this enormous price on Friday
The posted money line at Bodog has Toronto as a huge underdog for this contest at current odds of +190.
The Rays kept their feint playoff hopes alive on Thursday by overcoming a 4-1 ninth-inning deficit vs. the Boston Red Sox and winning 7-4 on a walk-off three-run homer by B.J. Upton. However, Tampa Bay is still 5½ games out of a wild card spot with only 12 games remaining, and things will not get any easier vs. Villanueva this evening.Now granted, the Blue Jays have dropped back to last place in the America League East by losing five of their last six games, and they were just swept in a three-game series by the New York Yankees in the Bronx, but they are facing a far less formidable offense this weekend, they have a hot pitcher on the mound and they should get a boost tonight with Yunel Escobar expected back in the lineup.
Escobar was suspended for the three games vs. the Yankees for displaying a homophobic slur written in Spanish on his eye black during a game last weekend. Escobar may have only nine home runs and 49 RBI, but that is still more pop than the rest of the Toronto shortstops have.
The real key to an upset here however is Villanueva, who has managed to go 7-5 while pitching for a last place team with a good 3.42 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Villanueva has been a model of consistency since returning to the starting rotation following 18 relief appearances, as he has allowed three runs or less in 11 of his 14 starts since the end of June.
That stretch includes two Quality Starts vs. the Rays, including tossing six scoreless innings in a 2-0 win against them in Toronto on August 30th while allowing only five hits and striking out seven. He is facing a Tampa Bay offense that ranks only 27th in the Major Leagues in hitting with just at .238 batting average, leaving the Rays ahead of only the Houston Astros, Oakland Athletics and Seattle Mariners in that category.
Now the Rays do have a solid starter of their own here in Shields, who is 14-9 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. He does have only two Complete Games this season though after leading the Major Leagues with 11 Complete Games last year. Shields was not his sharpest in his last start vs. the Yankees on Saturday, permitting four earned runs on six hits plus one walk in 6.1 innings.
As you can see, although Shields has won 14 games, it is Villanueva that has the slightly better ERA and WHIP, and his recent success vs. the Rays should continue tonight given that Tampa Bay is batting just .223 here at home for the entire season. Thus, the Blue Jays appear to hold all the value at this enormous price on Friday
MLB Pick: Blue Jays +190 ---
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