вторник, 7 августа 2012 г.

Vikings vs. 49ers: NFL Picks

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One of the more exciting teams to watch this preseason is the 49ers. San Francisco pummeled their way through the NFC last season until they met up with the Giants. The NFC runners-up have since re-armed and stocked up their weapons cache, ready for another shot at the Super Bowl.

NFL odds for this game against the Vikes favors the home Niners by -3 ½. It’s no surprise considering the Vikings will be without their top threat, Adrian Peterson. Peterson is still rehabbing his ACL tear, and even though most seem optimistic that he won’t miss much time this season, the risk of him playing in the first preseason game is too high.
Preseason betting will have some good ATS teams, and I think one of them is playing in this game.
Upgrade
Vernon DavisAlex Smith's saving grace last season were two fold. First, the Niners’ crippling defense - which was stellar against the run and one of the best against the pass - was on his side. The second was an excuse: when the Niners lost in the NFC title game, it was evident that Smith didn’t have the weapons needed to keep up with the likes Eli Manning and the Giants.
The defense will still be rock-solid this season, but the offense has gotten a major upgrade. Not only did the Niners get Randy Moss to come out of retirement, they also swiped Mario Manningham and Brandon Jacobs from the Giants. Combined with Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis, this just might be the most improved passing offense in the league. They were twenty-ninth in the league in passing last season, averaging only 183 yards passing per game. 
Young Vikes
It isn’t like this team is inexperienced. They are a very good team with a lot of veterans. The problem is, without Peterson, they are very, very young at the skill positions on offense. Christian Ponder had to wait out an inexplicable few games while Donovan McNabb toiled at the helm last season, but once he became the starter, he played well for a rookie with shortened offseason work.
The Vikings are hardly expected to compete in their stacked division this season. However, they still have enough talent to win several games. They surely won't be push-overs, especially when Peterson comes back.
The Sharp Pick
I expect this game to be close. As we will see, preseason games are typically within single digits, and even though I think this game will be close, I still feel more comfortable laying the points with the Niners
San Francisco has so much depth - and so many new players they need to cycle through the first parts of the game; I find it hard to believe that the Vikings can keep up with that kind of depth. At running back alone, the Niners have three or four quality backs for whom they will want to get playing time.
Jim Harbaugh will want to see his team’s name in the winning column after how they lost against the Giants, so something tells me he will try and win the game. 
My Pick: 49ers -3 ½ +++

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