Top Fantasy Football Offenses: 2012-13 NFL Betting

By: Jordan Sharp

While NFL teams are gearing up for the 2012-13 season, it is also time for you to put on your GM hat and starting crunching the numbers for this year's fantasy football season. Who do we think are the most valuable players on the offensive side of the ball?

When Tom Brady got knocked out of the Patriots’ Week 1 game in 2008, the money lost by fantasy GMs was in the tens of millions. Hopefully, nothing major like that happens this season, but every year it seems like some major injuries to a number one pick can completely derail an NFL season. Just take a look at Jamaal Charles or even Peyton Manning last season to see how an unfortunate injury can kill your chances before the season even starts. 

Even though injuries are a part of the game that you can't control, you can control who you select as your top NFL picks for your fantasy team in 2012. With that in mind, below, I’ve given you my fantasy big board for my top 25 offensive fantasy studs for 2012, and some advice and strategy you must read before heading into your fantasy draft. 

The Sharp 25

1. Ray Rice
2. Arian Foster
3. Lesean McCoy
4. Aaron Rodgers
5. Tom Brady
6. Calvin Johnson
7. Drew Brees
8. Maurice Jones-Drew
9. Andre Johnson
10. Chris Johnson
11. Ryan Matthews
12. Larry Fitzgerald
13. Roddy White
14. Matt Forte
15. Rob Gronkowski
16. Marshawn Lynch
17. Greg Jennings
18. DeMarco Murray
19. Wes Welker
20. Cam Newton
21. Jimmy Graham
22. AJ Green
23. Jamaal Charles
24. Victor Cruz
25. Michael Vick

As you can see, I have three quarterbacks listed in my top 10. My strategy with quarterbacks is as follows. You either take one of the top three or four available, or you stock up on position players and wait. It really is a matter of preference, because if you miss out on Brady, Rodgers or Brees, you still have Cam Newton, Michael Vick, Eli Manning or even Matt Stafford following shortly after. However, the gap is growing between those top three, considering how much their respective offenses throw the ball. None of those teams have a really good threat as a running back, where the lower tier guys like Vick and Manning do.

Check out some of the biggest quarterback battles going on right now, as big names are fighting it out for the starting position.

If you have a top three pick, the top three running backs are all there and ready to be picked. I don’t think I could fault anyone for taking Rodgers or Brady in the top three, but just know, those top three backs are ranked there for a reason, and it will be hard to find production like that in later rounds. 

When to target and where?

My NFL picks strategy is this; if I can get one of the better quarterbacks within the first three rounds, I’ll snag one. However, if I whiff completely on all the above mentioned QBs, 

I’ll stock up on receivers and running backs in hopes of making a trade. However, there is a lot of value in quarterbacks this season, and snagging a guy like Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler or Matt Schaub as your starter is not much of a problem. Just draft a solid back up just in case. 

Another position that gives people problems is the tight end. There aren’t a lot of good, consistent tight ends in the NFL, and if you don’t get one of the better ones early, you may be out of luck. As we saw last season the two top tight ends were Antonio Gates and Dallas Clark. Clark fell apart last season, while Gates was injured and not often used, so taking one of the top tight ends is never a lock. 

My strategy with tight ends is not to take the flashy pick. Gronkowski and Graham will be going in the first three rounds, but at that point, there are so many good receivers and running backs left, you will be giving up too much if you take one of the top tight ends. Target a guy like Jermichael Finley, Aaron Hernandez or Fred Davis, and you’ll still get good production for a fraction of the cost. ADP of those guys I just mentioned runs around rounds 7-10.