понедельник, 2 июля 2012 г.

NFL Top 6: Handicapping the league’s best home teams

Making hay on the home team can be tough for NFL bettors. 

Home teams are generally handed a 3-point advantage on pointspreads from the get-go, no matter the quality of their opposition. Last week we took a look at some of the biggest lines on this season’s schedule, featuring many of the strongest home teams in the NFL. 

This time around, we’ll check out some of the league’s most successful regular season home teams over the last two years and look into how they performed against the number. 

New England Patriots: 15-1 straight up, 8-7-1 against the spread

With Tom Brady pacing an offense that put up an AFC-best 513 points last year, they were a tough to handle on any field. They finished 4-4 against the spread at Gillette Stadium, with their lone home loss coming against Giants in the Super Bowl preview in Week 9, a 24-20 defeat in which they were set as 9-point favorites. They were favored by at least nine points five different times last year and opened favored by at least that much five more times this year.

Green Bay Packers: 
15-1 straight up, 13-3 against the spread

No team has been more profitable at home over the last two years than the Green Bay Packers. Last season, they were 8-0 straight up at home, failing to cover just once in a win over Tampa Bay in Week 11. They scored more than 40 points in five of their home games and will need to keep up that production to cover some more big lines this year. 

Baltimore Ravens: 15-1 straight up, 7-8-1 against the spread

Baltimore didn’t lose at home last year, but finished just 4-3-1 against the spread. The Ravens held five of their visitors to 14 or fewer points last season. In Vegas, they opened as 7-point home favorites against the rival Bengals in Week 1’s Monday Nighter. 

New Orleans Saints: 13-3 straight up, 12-4 against the spread

New Orleans was the NFL’s best home team for bettors last season, going 8-0 both straight up and against the spread. The Saints are going to need all the help they can get after this nightmarish offseason. They opened up as 11-point favorites in Week 1 at home to Washington but won’t see another double-digit line until Week 15 against Tampa Bay.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 
12-4 straight up, 10-6 against the spread

Pittsburgh won seven of its eight home games last season, going 5-3 against the spread. They were favored by at least 12.5 points in four of their home games and ranked first in the league overall in total defense, passing defense and points allowed. That defense should get a test in Week 1 as Pittsburgh visits Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos as 2-point underdogs. The Steelers host the Jets as 4.5-point favorites in Week 2. 

San Francisco 49ers: 
12-4 straight up, 11-4-1 against the spread

The 49ers lost just once on home soil last year and finished 7-0-1 against the spread at Candlestick Park after going 5-3 straight up, 4-4 against the spread at home the year before. They open the year as underdogs in Green Bay before hosting the Detroit Lions as 3.5-point favorites in Week 2. The 49ers held five of their eight visitors to 10 or fewer points last season.

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