Petco Park is certainly a pitcher friendly stadium, but this matchup between the Reds’ Bronson Arroyo and the Padres’ Kip Well does not merit a total this low, especially with San Diego hitting lately. Go ‘over’ on Friday.
Look for a higher scoring game than the low total suggests Friday night when Bronson Arroyo and the Cincinnati Reds (44-18 overall, 21-22 away) take on Kip Wells and the San Diego Padres (34-50 overall, 17-24 home) as the teams play the second game of a four-game series from Petco Park in San Diego, CA at 10:05 ET.
The posted total at 5 Dimes is 7 has this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -110.
Now we get that Petco Park is the most pitcher-friendly stadium in all of baseball, but this posted total of 7 seems like an overreaction to that fact given this pitching matchup.
The Padres have actually climbed out of last place in the National League West as they have now won six consecutive games, although that season-long winning streak still leaves them 13 games behind the first place Los Angeles Dodgers. The streak includes a three-game road sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have now supplanted San Diego in the division basement.
The Padres are actually scoring runs right now too, averaging 5.83 runs per game during the winning streak, and they are batting .285 vs. right-handed pitching over the last five games. They hope to extend their winning streak to seven tonight with Wells pitching against his former Cincinnati team.
Granted, Wells has only two earned runs in 12 innings over two starts after taking the rotation spot of the disabled Anthony Bass, but we are still talking about a pitcher that is 68-100 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in his career that had not pitching in the Major Leagues since 2009 prior to his June 25th call up.
Furthermore, he has been quite fortunate not to allow more runs in his two starts for the Padres considering that he has yielded 18 baserunners in 12 innings, translating to a high 1.50 WHIP which is in line with his career average. He also has only four strikeouts compared to five walks, so he can’t continue to expect to get out of jams vs. a Cincinnati lineup that has Joey Votto back after he missed a couple of games.
The Reds have lost three straight games to fall two games behind the surprising Pittsburgh Pirates in the National League Central, although they are still among the National League leaders on the Team Money Report. Still, they have the erratic Arroyo on the bump tonight.
Arroyo is just 3-5 with a 4.06 ERA on the season with the opposition hitting a high .279 off of him in 99.2 innings, and although he pitches in a Hitter’s Paradise, Arroyo has actually had more difficulty on the road where he is 3-4 with a 4.34 ERA and nine home runs allowed in nine starts, compared to six home runs allowed in seven home starts.
Surprisingly, Arroyo also has just 4.56 ERA in 13 career starts vs. San Diego with the Padres hitting .290 off of him. Considering how hot the Pads have been vs. righties in recent games, we would not be surprised if they get to Arroyo again tonight.
All things considered, this looks like a low total even taking the ballpark into consideration, so go ‘over’ the low number in San Diego tonight.
The posted total at 5 Dimes is 7 has this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -110.
Now we get that Petco Park is the most pitcher-friendly stadium in all of baseball, but this posted total of 7 seems like an overreaction to that fact given this pitching matchup.The Padres have actually climbed out of last place in the National League West as they have now won six consecutive games, although that season-long winning streak still leaves them 13 games behind the first place Los Angeles Dodgers. The streak includes a three-game road sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have now supplanted San Diego in the division basement.
The Padres are actually scoring runs right now too, averaging 5.83 runs per game during the winning streak, and they are batting .285 vs. right-handed pitching over the last five games. They hope to extend their winning streak to seven tonight with Wells pitching against his former Cincinnati team.
Granted, Wells has only two earned runs in 12 innings over two starts after taking the rotation spot of the disabled Anthony Bass, but we are still talking about a pitcher that is 68-100 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in his career that had not pitching in the Major Leagues since 2009 prior to his June 25th call up.
Furthermore, he has been quite fortunate not to allow more runs in his two starts for the Padres considering that he has yielded 18 baserunners in 12 innings, translating to a high 1.50 WHIP which is in line with his career average. He also has only four strikeouts compared to five walks, so he can’t continue to expect to get out of jams vs. a Cincinnati lineup that has Joey Votto back after he missed a couple of games.
The Reds have lost three straight games to fall two games behind the surprising Pittsburgh Pirates in the National League Central, although they are still among the National League leaders on the Team Money Report. Still, they have the erratic Arroyo on the bump tonight.
Arroyo is just 3-5 with a 4.06 ERA on the season with the opposition hitting a high .279 off of him in 99.2 innings, and although he pitches in a Hitter’s Paradise, Arroyo has actually had more difficulty on the road where he is 3-4 with a 4.34 ERA and nine home runs allowed in nine starts, compared to six home runs allowed in seven home starts.
Surprisingly, Arroyo also has just 4.56 ERA in 13 career starts vs. San Diego with the Padres hitting .290 off of him. Considering how hot the Pads have been vs. righties in recent games, we would not be surprised if they get to Arroyo again tonight.
All things considered, this looks like a low total even taking the ballpark into consideration, so go ‘over’ the low number in San Diego tonight.
Reds, Padres ‘over’ 7 (-110) ---
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