The Reds may be hot while the Astros are cold, but Lucas Harrell of Houston is in great current form allowing one run or less in four of his last five starts while Mike Leake was bombed by Arizona last out. Take Houston to upset.
It may take some courage, but the home underdog looks to offer nice value Tuesday night when Mike Leake and the Cincinnati Reds (56-40 overall, 25-22 away) take on Lucas Harrell and the Houston Astros (34-63 overall, 24-22 home) as the National League Central rivals play the second game of a three-game series from Minute Maid Park in Houston, TX at 8:05 ET.
The money line at Bodog has Houston as a decent sized home underdog for this contest at current odds of +123.
Now we fully understand that the Reds are in first place in the division by 1½ games over the pesky Pittsburgh Pirates and that Cincinnati has won five straight games, while the Astros are in last place 22½ games back and have lost seven games in a row. With that said, we are very high on Houston’s starter Harrell and we feel he gives the Astros value as an underdog at home, where believe it or not they are still two games over .500.
Harrell has managed to go 7-7 while pitching for a team that is 29 games under .500 with a mediocre 4.24 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, but those key numbers do not tell the whole story. Harrell’ssabremetrics are outperforming his conventional numbers resulting in him having a good 1.5 WAR, which is second best on the Houston staff.
Harrell has done his best pitching here at home this season where he is an outstanding 5-1 with a 1.99 ERA and 1.15 WHIP while allowing opposing home batters to hit just .222 against him with 34 strikeouts against 15 walks in 45.1 innings. Furthermore, Harrell is in raging form right now regardless of the venue.
He has now allowed one run or less in four of his last five starts after a tough-luck 1-0 loss to the San Diego Padres on Thursday where he allowed only four hits in seven innings, and he could have gone further as he threw only 87 pitches but he was unsuccessfully pinch-hit for in the seventh inning.
The Reds won their fifth straight game 8-3 in the series opener here last night, making them 5-2 in this season series this year. However, their starter Leake has been the opposite of Harrell in that his conventional numbers are better then his sabremetrics, so his regression seemed inevitable.
Well, it looks like it began last time out vs. Arizona when Leake allowed six earned runs and 11 hits in 5.1 innings, only to have his teammates rally from a 6-0 deficit to win 7-6 and leave him with a no-decision. Leake is 3-6 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.32 WHIP overall, numbers that don’t exactly inspire confidence in the road favorite role.
Finally, yes the Reds have managed to win games without the injured Joey Votto so far, but aside from last night’s 8-run outburst, most of their recent wins have been fueled by great starting pitching. They cannot count on a great performance from Leake tonight while the Votto-less offense should struggle vs. the red-hot Harrell.
Therefore, go for the nice value here and back Houston as a home underdog on Tuesday.
The money line at Bodog has Houston as a decent sized home underdog for this contest at current odds of +123.
Now we fully understand that the Reds are in first place in the division by 1½ games over the pesky Pittsburgh Pirates and that Cincinnati has won five straight games, while the Astros are in last place 22½ games back and have lost seven games in a row. With that said, we are very high on Houston’s starter Harrell and we feel he gives the Astros value as an underdog at home, where believe it or not they are still two games over .500.Harrell has managed to go 7-7 while pitching for a team that is 29 games under .500 with a mediocre 4.24 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, but those key numbers do not tell the whole story. Harrell’ssabremetrics are outperforming his conventional numbers resulting in him having a good 1.5 WAR, which is second best on the Houston staff.
Harrell has done his best pitching here at home this season where he is an outstanding 5-1 with a 1.99 ERA and 1.15 WHIP while allowing opposing home batters to hit just .222 against him with 34 strikeouts against 15 walks in 45.1 innings. Furthermore, Harrell is in raging form right now regardless of the venue.
He has now allowed one run or less in four of his last five starts after a tough-luck 1-0 loss to the San Diego Padres on Thursday where he allowed only four hits in seven innings, and he could have gone further as he threw only 87 pitches but he was unsuccessfully pinch-hit for in the seventh inning.
The Reds won their fifth straight game 8-3 in the series opener here last night, making them 5-2 in this season series this year. However, their starter Leake has been the opposite of Harrell in that his conventional numbers are better then his sabremetrics, so his regression seemed inevitable.
Well, it looks like it began last time out vs. Arizona when Leake allowed six earned runs and 11 hits in 5.1 innings, only to have his teammates rally from a 6-0 deficit to win 7-6 and leave him with a no-decision. Leake is 3-6 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.32 WHIP overall, numbers that don’t exactly inspire confidence in the road favorite role.
Finally, yes the Reds have managed to win games without the injured Joey Votto so far, but aside from last night’s 8-run outburst, most of their recent wins have been fueled by great starting pitching. They cannot count on a great performance from Leake tonight while the Votto-less offense should struggle vs. the red-hot Harrell.
Therefore, go for the nice value here and back Houston as a home underdog on Tuesday.
MLB Pick: Astros +123
Комментариев нет:
Отправить комментарий