Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals beat Mike Minor and the Braves Saturday, but Strasburg again lasted only five innings and he has never pitched well vs. Atlanta. Take the Braves as dogs in a pitching rematch Friday.
There could be an upset in store in a National League East battle on Friday night when Mike Minor and the Atlanta Braves (28-24 overall, 16-13 away) take on Stephen Strasburg and the Washington Nationals (29-21 overall, 15-8 home) as the teams begin a weekend three-game series from Nationals Park in Washington, DC at 7:05 ET.
The money line at Bovada has Atlanta as a nice-sized underdog for this contest at current odds of +145.
The Nationals return home after getting swept in a three-game series on the road by the Miami Marlins, ending what once looked like a potentially fantastic nine-game road trip with a 5-4 mark. At least Washington remains in first place in the division, albeit by just one-half game over hard-charging Miami. The Braves meanwhile are in fourth place but only two games out.
This is a pitching rematch from last Saturday in Atlanta where Strasburg and the Nationals out-dueled Minor and the Braves 8-4, but the biggest story to come out of that game was that it marked the third straight game that Strasburg failed to go beyond five innings. Remember that he left his outing two starts ago complaining of “arm fatigue” and he then promptly allowed four earned runs on six hits and a season-high four walks to the Braves in five innings Saturday.
Even under the best o circumstances, Strasburg has a higher ERA vs. Atlanta (5.28) then he does vs. any other opponent that he has faced more then once, and that most recent outing leaves him with a 5.79 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in his last three starts overall. Could it be that Strasburg’s arm is bothering him more than the Nationals are letting on, particularly since he is less than two years removed from Tommy John surgery?
This is a chance to be a special season for the Nationals with their great young arms, but they will need a healthy Strasburg to be a part of it. Perhaps he is only going through a “dead arm” period right now, but whatever the reason he is definitely not the pitcher at the moment that owns a 2.64 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 70 strikeouts vs. 17 walks for the entire season.
The Braves fell back in the standings by getting swept by Washington in that three-game series last weekend and the Atlanta losing streak reached eight games vs. the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday before the Bravos regrouped nicely by winning the last two games of that series. They now look to slice the deficit to one game tonight with Minor on the hill.
Yes, Minor has allowed the most home runs in the National League with 13 and he has a league worst 6.98 ERA, but he wasn’t terrible vs. the Nationals on Saturday save for allowing his 13th home run of the year to Danny Espinosa. The southpaw will undoubtedly be on a short leash tonight and it helps that Washington is hitting only .224 vs. left-handed pitchers this season.
Remember also that Minor could be pitching to keep his spot in the rotation, and that he was highly regarded entering this season due to his seemingly good assortment of pitches. There is also a large spread between his 6.98 ERA and his 4.34 xFIP, so we do not feel that Minor is nearly as horrific as his ERA suggests.
Thus, look for continued improvement by Minor tonight vs. a team that cannot hit lefties, so given Strasburg’s arm problems right now, back the Braves as decided underdogs on Friday.
The money line at Bovada has Atlanta as a nice-sized underdog for this contest at current odds of +145.
The Nationals return home after getting swept in a three-game series on the road by the Miami Marlins, ending what once looked like a potentially fantastic nine-game road trip with a 5-4 mark. At least Washington remains in first place in the division, albeit by just one-half game over hard-charging Miami. The Braves meanwhile are in fourth place but only two games out.
This is a pitching rematch from last Saturday in Atlanta where Strasburg and the Nationals out-dueled Minor and the Braves 8-4, but the biggest story to come out of that game was that it marked the third straight game that Strasburg failed to go beyond five innings. Remember that he left his outing two starts ago complaining of “arm fatigue” and he then promptly allowed four earned runs on six hits and a season-high four walks to the Braves in five innings Saturday.Even under the best o circumstances, Strasburg has a higher ERA vs. Atlanta (5.28) then he does vs. any other opponent that he has faced more then once, and that most recent outing leaves him with a 5.79 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in his last three starts overall. Could it be that Strasburg’s arm is bothering him more than the Nationals are letting on, particularly since he is less than two years removed from Tommy John surgery?
This is a chance to be a special season for the Nationals with their great young arms, but they will need a healthy Strasburg to be a part of it. Perhaps he is only going through a “dead arm” period right now, but whatever the reason he is definitely not the pitcher at the moment that owns a 2.64 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 70 strikeouts vs. 17 walks for the entire season.
The Braves fell back in the standings by getting swept by Washington in that three-game series last weekend and the Atlanta losing streak reached eight games vs. the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday before the Bravos regrouped nicely by winning the last two games of that series. They now look to slice the deficit to one game tonight with Minor on the hill.
Yes, Minor has allowed the most home runs in the National League with 13 and he has a league worst 6.98 ERA, but he wasn’t terrible vs. the Nationals on Saturday save for allowing his 13th home run of the year to Danny Espinosa. The southpaw will undoubtedly be on a short leash tonight and it helps that Washington is hitting only .224 vs. left-handed pitchers this season.
Remember also that Minor could be pitching to keep his spot in the rotation, and that he was highly regarded entering this season due to his seemingly good assortment of pitches. There is also a large spread between his 6.98 ERA and his 4.34 xFIP, so we do not feel that Minor is nearly as horrific as his ERA suggests.
Thus, look for continued improvement by Minor tonight vs. a team that cannot hit lefties, so given Strasburg’s arm problems right now, back the Braves as decided underdogs on Friday.
Braves +145 ppd
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