Where have I seen this before? New York Rangers win Game 1 of a series and then, with a chance to get a leg up in Game 2, blow it and head on the road tied at one game apiece. Prolonging series like this might come back to bite should they reach the finals.
The Rangers have now followed that exact pattern for three straight playoff rounds and they might want to think about playing a little more consistently. They’ve played the maximum amount of playoff games any team could have played to this point and that might come back to haunt them in the Stanley Cup Finals if they ended up meeting a Los Angeles Kings team that’s had plenty of rest through the rounds.
As for Game 3, the Rangers and the Devils are dead even. The Rangers won Game 1 but easily could have lost it and the Devils won Game 2 and easily could have lost it too. The Rangers seem to bounce back well after losses and that’s what we should see from them again in Game 3.
To be quite frank, these games are all coin flips so the betting line is going to dictate which way I look. With the Devils being dogs in Games 1 and 2, we came away profitable betting them both times. With the Rangers now being a road dog in Game 3, they’re at the right price.
Either way, this is going to be a long series – likely seven games – and we’re going to keep taking the dogs in most cases. With that in mind, take the Rangers for Game 3.
NHL Picks: Rangers +++
New York Rangers vs. New Jersey Devils
Given how both teams are playing defensively, it’s really tough to consider the OVER…except for the fact that the total has dropped to 4.5. During the regular season, most NHL totals are at 5.5 with a handful of low scoring games at 5 and a couple of high-scoring affairs posted at 6. In the playoffs, we’ve seen NHL odds makers shade the totals lower – especially in Kings and Rangers games – as those two teams have been playing so well defensively. Even so, that extra half-goal makes a big difference.
With a total of five, the Rangers playoff record on the totals would show one OVER, eight UNDERS and seven pushes. But if that total dipped to 4.5, then their record would show eight OVERS and eight UNDERS, so that half-goal is very crucial. As you can see, the number of UNDERS doesn’t change but the chance of hitting an OVER significantly improves.
That being the case, I see a similar type of 2-2 style contest in Game 3 with the fifth goal being the difference. Martin Brodeur and Henrik Lundqvist are standing on their heads, but both teams know that they have to fire plenty of pucks at the net and hope for lucky bounces and lucky rebounds. Look for lots of shots, lots of chances and at least five goals.
NHL Picks: OVER ---
Комментариев нет:
Отправить комментарий