The ‘over’ is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between the Padres and Mets, and with the mediocre journeyman Eric Stults starting for San Diego and the unproven Jeremy Hefner going for New York, go ‘over’ again in Flushing Thursday.
There could be a higher scoring game than this posted total suggests on Thursday night when journeyman Eric Stults and the San Diego Padres (16-29 overall, 4-13 away) take on rookie Jeremy Hefner and the New York Mets (24-20 overall, 12-8 home) as the teams begin a weekend four-game series from Citi Field in Flushing, NY at 7:10 ET.
The posted total at Bookmaker Sportsbook is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -120.
Offense may not be the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams, but the ‘over’ is 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings, with most of those games having moderately low posted totals like tonight’s contest. We see s similar scenario tonight with the teams sneaking over again, given this pitching matchup.
The Padres are in last place in the National League West Divisionand a whopping 14½ games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers, and their four road wins is the fewest in the Major Leagues. Sure, San Diego does have a commendable 3.54 team ERA, but keep in mind that Petco Park is the most pitcher friendly park in the National League, and that ERA jumps to 4.46 on the road including a poor 4.91 for the starting pitchers.
Granted the Padres rank second to last in the National League with a .220 team batting average, but again that is partly due to the spacious dimensions of Petco. That average does climb a bit on the road, although .233 is hardly earth shattering. Still, they should be able to scrape together some runs vs. an unproven rookie starter and a shaky bullpen tonight.
San Diego starter Stults has been bouncing around the Major Leagues since 2006 when he first came up with the Dodgers. The Padres are Stults’s fourth team in four years and second this season as the Pads claimed him from the Chicago White Sox last week. His Padre debut vs. the Los Angeles Angels was a good one as he allowed only two runs and four hits in 6.2 innings, but that was at Petco and he did have three walks vs. only two strikeouts.
Stults is nothing special as he is 8-10 lifetime with a 4.76 ERA and 1.47 WHIP with opponents hitting .269 off of him in 44 Big League games, 26 of them starts. He does not have the greatest command either, with only 111 strikeouts against 74 walks in 170.1 lifetime innings, and he must now contend with a Mets’ lineup that includes the majors’ leading hitter in David Wright, who currently has a .399 average as he flirts with the magical .400 mark.
The Mets have been a pleasant surprise this season as they have continued to hang in the National League East Division race, currently sitting in third place but only two games behind the first place Washington Nationals. However, tonight’s rotation spot has been a problem spot. This would normally be the struggling Miguel Batista’s turn to pitch, but he was forced to leave after two innings in his last start Saturday due to a muscle pull in his lower back.
Hefner relieved Batista that game and pitched five effective innings, allowing two runs and four hits despite taking the loss. The Mets are now taking a look at what he could do as a starter this evening. Hefner is not considered to be a top prospect and he was never much of a strikeout pitcher in the minor leagues, so just about the only thing in his favor is that the Padres have never seen him before.
We do not expect Hefner to work deep into this game and New York’s long relief has probably been the weakest link of the whole team. The Mets’ bullpen has an ugly cumulative 5.05 ERA and 1.49 WHIP, so even the light-hitting Pads should be able to take advantage.
Now, we are not suggesting that this game will be a slugfest by any means, but this total is posted low enough where these teams can do enough to sneak ‘over’ the number on Thursday.
The posted total at Bookmaker Sportsbook is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -120.
Offense may not be the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams, but the ‘over’ is 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings, with most of those games having moderately low posted totals like tonight’s contest. We see s similar scenario tonight with the teams sneaking over again, given this pitching matchup.
The Padres are in last place in the National League West Divisionand a whopping 14½ games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers, and their four road wins is the fewest in the Major Leagues. Sure, San Diego does have a commendable 3.54 team ERA, but keep in mind that Petco Park is the most pitcher friendly park in the National League, and that ERA jumps to 4.46 on the road including a poor 4.91 for the starting pitchers.Granted the Padres rank second to last in the National League with a .220 team batting average, but again that is partly due to the spacious dimensions of Petco. That average does climb a bit on the road, although .233 is hardly earth shattering. Still, they should be able to scrape together some runs vs. an unproven rookie starter and a shaky bullpen tonight.
San Diego starter Stults has been bouncing around the Major Leagues since 2006 when he first came up with the Dodgers. The Padres are Stults’s fourth team in four years and second this season as the Pads claimed him from the Chicago White Sox last week. His Padre debut vs. the Los Angeles Angels was a good one as he allowed only two runs and four hits in 6.2 innings, but that was at Petco and he did have three walks vs. only two strikeouts.
Stults is nothing special as he is 8-10 lifetime with a 4.76 ERA and 1.47 WHIP with opponents hitting .269 off of him in 44 Big League games, 26 of them starts. He does not have the greatest command either, with only 111 strikeouts against 74 walks in 170.1 lifetime innings, and he must now contend with a Mets’ lineup that includes the majors’ leading hitter in David Wright, who currently has a .399 average as he flirts with the magical .400 mark.
The Mets have been a pleasant surprise this season as they have continued to hang in the National League East Division race, currently sitting in third place but only two games behind the first place Washington Nationals. However, tonight’s rotation spot has been a problem spot. This would normally be the struggling Miguel Batista’s turn to pitch, but he was forced to leave after two innings in his last start Saturday due to a muscle pull in his lower back.
Hefner relieved Batista that game and pitched five effective innings, allowing two runs and four hits despite taking the loss. The Mets are now taking a look at what he could do as a starter this evening. Hefner is not considered to be a top prospect and he was never much of a strikeout pitcher in the minor leagues, so just about the only thing in his favor is that the Padres have never seen him before.
We do not expect Hefner to work deep into this game and New York’s long relief has probably been the weakest link of the whole team. The Mets’ bullpen has an ugly cumulative 5.05 ERA and 1.49 WHIP, so even the light-hitting Pads should be able to take advantage.
Now, we are not suggesting that this game will be a slugfest by any means, but this total is posted low enough where these teams can do enough to sneak ‘over’ the number on Thursday.
Mlb picks: Padres, Mets ‘over’ 7½ (-120) +++
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