nibal Sanchez of the Marlins has actually been one of the best pitchers in baseball, and the fact that is disguised by his 2-1 record gives him good value. Jeanmar Gomez was lit up in his last home start so take Miami on Saturday.
It could be a bigger pitching mismatch than the line suggests on Saturday when Anibal Sanchez and the Miami Marlins (21-18 overall, 12-11 away) take on Jeanmar Gomez and the Cleveland Indians (22-17 overall, 10-11 home) as the teams play the second game of a weekend interleague three-game series from Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH at 4:05 ET.
The money line at Bovada has this game as a Pick at current odds of -110 for both sides in this contest.
The Marlins took the series opener here 3-2 last night while receiving another fine pitching effort from Carlos Zambrano as he out-dueled Justin Masterson. Miami has been getting great work from its starting rotation as it owns a cumulative 3.31 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, and that is a key reason the Marlins find themselves just 3½ games behind the Atlanta Braves in the National League East while tied for third place with the New York Mets.
Josh Johnson is considered the ace of the Florida staff, but today’s starter Sanchez is having the best year so far based on the Sabremetric stats, and the fact that he is only 2-1 leaves him extremely undervalued in our opinion. This is not to say that there is anything wrong with his conventional stats, as he does have a great 2.28 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.
However, Sanchez is in the top 10 in the Major Leagues in FIP at 2.46, as he has a fantastic ratio of 51 strikeouts vs. 12 walks in 47.1 innings. Sanchez has shown glimpses of greatness in the past but he is now reaching his peak, as he is averaging a career-high 9.70 strikeouts per nine innings and a career-low 2.28 walks per nine innings.
He is facing a Cleveland lineup that has surprisingly had its problems hitting here at home, as the Indians are batting just .229 in their home ballpark while averaging only 3.70 runs per nine innings. The Tribe managed just four measly hits here last night off of Zambrano, who went seven innings, and Randy Choate and Heath Bell, who went one inning apiece.
Despite those home hitting woes, the Indians are still the surprising leaders of the American League Central, although they are starting to hear footsteps with the preseason favorites in the division, the Detroit Tigers, now within three games in second place.
Cleveland appeared to have its hitting problems solved when it scored 15 runs in two games vs. the Seattle Mariners including rocking former Cy Young Award winner Felix Hernandez in the series opener on Wednesday, but that offense regressed again last night and it does not figure to do much with Sanchez today, especially since the Tribe have never faced him before.
That puts the pressure on Gomez to pitch well today to give the Indians a chance, and he does have good numbers on the surface with a 3.75 ERA and 1.14 WHIP despite a 2-2 record. However, those key numbers are deceptive, but unlike Sanchez, they are deceptive in a negative way.
Gomez is not a strikeout pitcher and he does not have great command, as he has 11 walks vs. only 19 strikeouts in 36 innings. Thus he allows a lot of balls in play and he has been extremely fortunate in that he is allowing a BABIP of just .246 so far, which is unlikely to continue. A truer indication of Gomez’s real ability is his very mediocre 4.21 xFIP.
Furthermore, Gomez has not pitched that well at home where he is 1-1 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, and he was torched by the Chicago White Sox the last time he pitched at Progressive Field for eight earned runs on nine hits plus four walks in 6.2 innings.
We feel that the Marlins have a bigger pitching edge here than either the conventional stats or this betting line would indicate, so back the underrated Sanchez at this cheap price on Saturday
The money line at Bovada has this game as a Pick at current odds of -110 for both sides in this contest.
The Marlins took the series opener here 3-2 last night while receiving another fine pitching effort from Carlos Zambrano as he out-dueled Justin Masterson. Miami has been getting great work from its starting rotation as it owns a cumulative 3.31 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, and that is a key reason the Marlins find themselves just 3½ games behind the Atlanta Braves in the National League East while tied for third place with the New York Mets.Josh Johnson is considered the ace of the Florida staff, but today’s starter Sanchez is having the best year so far based on the Sabremetric stats, and the fact that he is only 2-1 leaves him extremely undervalued in our opinion. This is not to say that there is anything wrong with his conventional stats, as he does have a great 2.28 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.
However, Sanchez is in the top 10 in the Major Leagues in FIP at 2.46, as he has a fantastic ratio of 51 strikeouts vs. 12 walks in 47.1 innings. Sanchez has shown glimpses of greatness in the past but he is now reaching his peak, as he is averaging a career-high 9.70 strikeouts per nine innings and a career-low 2.28 walks per nine innings.
He is facing a Cleveland lineup that has surprisingly had its problems hitting here at home, as the Indians are batting just .229 in their home ballpark while averaging only 3.70 runs per nine innings. The Tribe managed just four measly hits here last night off of Zambrano, who went seven innings, and Randy Choate and Heath Bell, who went one inning apiece.
Despite those home hitting woes, the Indians are still the surprising leaders of the American League Central, although they are starting to hear footsteps with the preseason favorites in the division, the Detroit Tigers, now within three games in second place.
Cleveland appeared to have its hitting problems solved when it scored 15 runs in two games vs. the Seattle Mariners including rocking former Cy Young Award winner Felix Hernandez in the series opener on Wednesday, but that offense regressed again last night and it does not figure to do much with Sanchez today, especially since the Tribe have never faced him before.
That puts the pressure on Gomez to pitch well today to give the Indians a chance, and he does have good numbers on the surface with a 3.75 ERA and 1.14 WHIP despite a 2-2 record. However, those key numbers are deceptive, but unlike Sanchez, they are deceptive in a negative way.
Gomez is not a strikeout pitcher and he does not have great command, as he has 11 walks vs. only 19 strikeouts in 36 innings. Thus he allows a lot of balls in play and he has been extremely fortunate in that he is allowing a BABIP of just .246 so far, which is unlikely to continue. A truer indication of Gomez’s real ability is his very mediocre 4.21 xFIP.
Furthermore, Gomez has not pitched that well at home where he is 1-1 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, and he was torched by the Chicago White Sox the last time he pitched at Progressive Field for eight earned runs on nine hits plus four walks in 6.2 innings.
We feel that the Marlins have a bigger pitching edge here than either the conventional stats or this betting line would indicate, so back the underrated Sanchez at this cheap price on Saturday
Picks: Marlins -110 ---
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