Every week, we update you on who's hot, who's not and situational betting spots in Major League Baseball (All records and statistics through Saturday):
HOT TEAM: Washington Nationals
THIS SEASON: 12-4.
LAST WEEK: 5-1.
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: At the Padres for three, at the Dodgers for three.
THE SKINNY: There was a lot of talk surrounding the Nationals in spring training. They were the chic team, the club that could surprise in a tough National League East. Well, if a small sampling is any indication, manager Davey Johnson seems to have the right mix, he’s pushing the right buttons, and there is baseball fever in the nation’s capital.
Last week, one win rolled right after another, it seemed, including a shutout of Houston (1-0) on Tuesday, and another against the Marlins (2-0) on Friday.
Jayson Werth, last year’s bust of a free-agent signing from Philadelphia, has turned a corner and sat with a .475 slugging percentage and a .322 average. The Nationals have little speed -- swiping just four bases as a team -- but when you have four players with at least seven RBIs, including Werth (13), maybe you don’t need to steal bags. As for the arms, it's all about the strikeouts. Stephen Strasburg (25), Gio Gonzalez (21) and Edwin Jackson (20) are sending NL batters back to the dugout at a regular rate, and for now, the bullpen is making leads hold up. Eventually, the books will account for Washington’s prowess. So you might want to jump on the Nationals now.
COLD TEAM: Kansas City Royals
THIS SEASON: 3-11.
LAST WEEK: 0-5.
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: Home to the Blue Jays for one, at the Indians for three, at the Twins for three.
THE SKINNY: To be fair, the Royals had some tough sledding last week, but the numbers were not good regardless. They battled, give them credit for that, but that only made the losses tougher to swallow. Three defeats to Detroit by a combined score of 10-6, and another nailbiter against Toronto, 4-3 on Friday. Surprisingly, the Royals were 10th in the majors in team batting. But it just doesn't feel like it. Probably because a lot of those hits were of the hollow variety, and perhaps more important, they had only a .318 on-base percentage and .417 slugging clip as a club. On the pitching staff, no one had more than 15 strikeouts, and the Royals had more blown saves (three), than actual saves (two). It could be another long year for manager Ned Yost and Co.
OVER TEAM: Toronto Blue Jays
O/U THIS SEASON: 10-4.
O/U LAST WEEK: 4-1.
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: At the Royals for one, at the Orioles for three, home to the Mariners for three.
THE SKINNY: Balance, balance, balance has been the order of the day in Toronto. Seven players -- Jeff Mathis (.400), Edwin Encarnacion (.328), Brett Lawrie (.281), Colby Rasmus (.321), Eric Thames (.256), Omar Vizquel (.250), and Ben Francisco (.250) -- owned at least a .250 batting average, and six of those players -- taking out Vizquel -- had at least an on-base percentage of .300, including Mathis (.900) and Encarnacion (.621). And a forgotten statistic always key to overs that Toronto has excelled in, is walks. Kelly Johnson and Jose Bautista both had 11, and in Toronto, if you're getting on, there seem to be enough bats to get them home. Last week, the Blue Jays scored 28 runs in five games. Another signal for overs? Batting average against for your pitching staff, and Toronto has abided. Drew Hutchison (.364), Sergio Santos (.316) and Francisco Cordero (.292) have made sure of that.
UNDER TEAM: Detroit Tigers
O/U THIS SEASON: 4-10-1.
O/U LAST WEEK: 2-4.
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: Home to the Mariners for three, at the Yankees for three.
THE SKINNY: Just goes to show you that adjustments needs to be made when lineups change, no matter how much star power you bring in from other teams. Prince Fielder will pay dividends over the long haul. But as dangerous as he's made this lineup, the Tigers are not immune to unders. In a three-game sweep of the Royals, the Tigers posted a hat trick of unders, and did not score more than four runs in any game. They finished the series with just 10 runs total, and took just a .250 batting average into Sunday's action. That was good for 13th in the majors. And their on-base percentage (.392) clocked in at 17th. Not exactly how Detroit brass drew it up in the offseason. But style points aren't for them, and neither should they be for you. If Detroit remains an overvalued over play, continue to ride that under train, folks.
HOT TEAM: Washington Nationals
THIS SEASON: 12-4.
LAST WEEK: 5-1.
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: At the Padres for three, at the Dodgers for three.
THE SKINNY: There was a lot of talk surrounding the Nationals in spring training. They were the chic team, the club that could surprise in a tough National League East. Well, if a small sampling is any indication, manager Davey Johnson seems to have the right mix, he’s pushing the right buttons, and there is baseball fever in the nation’s capital.
Last week, one win rolled right after another, it seemed, including a shutout of Houston (1-0) on Tuesday, and another against the Marlins (2-0) on Friday.
Jayson Werth, last year’s bust of a free-agent signing from Philadelphia, has turned a corner and sat with a .475 slugging percentage and a .322 average. The Nationals have little speed -- swiping just four bases as a team -- but when you have four players with at least seven RBIs, including Werth (13), maybe you don’t need to steal bags. As for the arms, it's all about the strikeouts. Stephen Strasburg (25), Gio Gonzalez (21) and Edwin Jackson (20) are sending NL batters back to the dugout at a regular rate, and for now, the bullpen is making leads hold up. Eventually, the books will account for Washington’s prowess. So you might want to jump on the Nationals now.
COLD TEAM: Kansas City Royals
THIS SEASON: 3-11.
LAST WEEK: 0-5.
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: Home to the Blue Jays for one, at the Indians for three, at the Twins for three.
THE SKINNY: To be fair, the Royals had some tough sledding last week, but the numbers were not good regardless. They battled, give them credit for that, but that only made the losses tougher to swallow. Three defeats to Detroit by a combined score of 10-6, and another nailbiter against Toronto, 4-3 on Friday. Surprisingly, the Royals were 10th in the majors in team batting. But it just doesn't feel like it. Probably because a lot of those hits were of the hollow variety, and perhaps more important, they had only a .318 on-base percentage and .417 slugging clip as a club. On the pitching staff, no one had more than 15 strikeouts, and the Royals had more blown saves (three), than actual saves (two). It could be another long year for manager Ned Yost and Co.
OVER TEAM: Toronto Blue Jays
O/U THIS SEASON: 10-4.
O/U LAST WEEK: 4-1.
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: At the Royals for one, at the Orioles for three, home to the Mariners for three.
THE SKINNY: Balance, balance, balance has been the order of the day in Toronto. Seven players -- Jeff Mathis (.400), Edwin Encarnacion (.328), Brett Lawrie (.281), Colby Rasmus (.321), Eric Thames (.256), Omar Vizquel (.250), and Ben Francisco (.250) -- owned at least a .250 batting average, and six of those players -- taking out Vizquel -- had at least an on-base percentage of .300, including Mathis (.900) and Encarnacion (.621). And a forgotten statistic always key to overs that Toronto has excelled in, is walks. Kelly Johnson and Jose Bautista both had 11, and in Toronto, if you're getting on, there seem to be enough bats to get them home. Last week, the Blue Jays scored 28 runs in five games. Another signal for overs? Batting average against for your pitching staff, and Toronto has abided. Drew Hutchison (.364), Sergio Santos (.316) and Francisco Cordero (.292) have made sure of that.
UNDER TEAM: Detroit Tigers
O/U THIS SEASON: 4-10-1.
O/U LAST WEEK: 2-4.
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: Home to the Mariners for three, at the Yankees for three.
THE SKINNY: Just goes to show you that adjustments needs to be made when lineups change, no matter how much star power you bring in from other teams. Prince Fielder will pay dividends over the long haul. But as dangerous as he's made this lineup, the Tigers are not immune to unders. In a three-game sweep of the Royals, the Tigers posted a hat trick of unders, and did not score more than four runs in any game. They finished the series with just 10 runs total, and took just a .250 batting average into Sunday's action. That was good for 13th in the majors. And their on-base percentage (.392) clocked in at 17th. Not exactly how Detroit brass drew it up in the offseason. But style points aren't for them, and neither should they be for you. If Detroit remains an overvalued over play, continue to ride that under train, folks.
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