Laying -200 or more on ace pitchers isn’t a long-term strategy for success. With that in mind, here are five undervalued starters who could help you turn a nice profit in 2012.
Mike Minor, Atlanta Braves
Batters hit .175 BA this spring against the 24-year-old lefty, who is slated to start the third game of the season versus the Mets. The general public might not expect much from Minor, who lost the No. 5 starter job last season to Brandon Beachy.
But Fangraphs.com notes Minor has a good strikeout rate and that his career 4.74 ERA is misleading. His career SIERA – a complicated stat that measures a pitcher’s underlying skill level more accurately than ERA – is 3.63.
In 24 spring innings, Minor allowed 14 hits while fanning 19 and walking 14. He had a fine WHIP of 1.17.
Minor was very vocal in Florida, saying he’d like a trade if he wasn’t in the rotation. He backed it up and could be a nice sleeper for bettors.
Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers
The 27-year-old right-hander posted the highest ERA, 4.43, in his four-year career last season yet still finished 19th in the money standings ($657). He was an underdog nine times.
Sabermetricians expect Scherzer’s ERA to drop this season, noting his ERA spike was due to two stats partly out of his control. He allowed a lofty .314 BA on balls in play, which doesn’t include home runs. And a whopping 12.6 percent of the fly balls he gave up went over the fence.
Because of those outliers, expect Scherzer to cut his ERA and keep cashing for bettors even if he doesn’t get the same run support he got last year (7.89, sixth in MLB).
Vance Worley, Philadelphia Phillies
As a rookie Worley went 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA in 132 innings. He was the sixth-most profitable starter in MLB, bringing in $1,013 for $100 players, as the Phils won 16 of his 21 starts.
From a betting perspective, the highlight came when Worley cashed as a +161 dog against the Braves on Sept. 28. With Worley on the mound, the Philliess never laid more than -195.
Worley benefits from all the attention showered on Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. His most recent spring start also should help limit his buzz. He gave up 11 runs, five earned, in four innings against Minnesota last Wednesday as the Phillies simply wanted him to get his work in.
Anibal Sanchez, Florida Marlins
Sanchez will certainly be motivated, as he becomes a free agent at season’s end.
Did you know that only Brandon Morrow, Zach Greinke and Clayton Kershaw struck out more batters per inning last year than Sanchez?
Sanchez appears to have put his shoulder concerns behind him.
The 28-year-old right-hander suffered from a lack of run support last year, ranking 82nd in the majors. The retooled Marlins should provide more support. Newly-signed shortstop Jose Reyes is the reigning NL batting champ and improves the team’s defense up the middle.
Henderson Alvarez, Toronto Blue Jays
He won’t turn 22 until April 18, but this 6-foot-1 right-hander could pitch like a No. 2 starter this season. Alvarez throws in the mid-90s and has a power sinker with sharp downward movement. He can fool batters with his changeup as well.
After a rapid rise through the farm system, Alvarez went 1-3 with a 3.53 ERA in 10 starts for Toronto last season. He pitched at least six innings in each of his final eight outings.
Alvarez, who spent the offseason refining his slider, walked just eight batters in 63 2-3 innings last year.
Ride him early while he’s still under the radar.
Mike Minor, Atlanta Braves
Batters hit .175 BA this spring against the 24-year-old lefty, who is slated to start the third game of the season versus the Mets. The general public might not expect much from Minor, who lost the No. 5 starter job last season to Brandon Beachy.
But Fangraphs.com notes Minor has a good strikeout rate and that his career 4.74 ERA is misleading. His career SIERA – a complicated stat that measures a pitcher’s underlying skill level more accurately than ERA – is 3.63.
In 24 spring innings, Minor allowed 14 hits while fanning 19 and walking 14. He had a fine WHIP of 1.17.
Minor was very vocal in Florida, saying he’d like a trade if he wasn’t in the rotation. He backed it up and could be a nice sleeper for bettors.
Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers
The 27-year-old right-hander posted the highest ERA, 4.43, in his four-year career last season yet still finished 19th in the money standings ($657). He was an underdog nine times.
Sabermetricians expect Scherzer’s ERA to drop this season, noting his ERA spike was due to two stats partly out of his control. He allowed a lofty .314 BA on balls in play, which doesn’t include home runs. And a whopping 12.6 percent of the fly balls he gave up went over the fence.
Because of those outliers, expect Scherzer to cut his ERA and keep cashing for bettors even if he doesn’t get the same run support he got last year (7.89, sixth in MLB).
Vance Worley, Philadelphia Phillies
As a rookie Worley went 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA in 132 innings. He was the sixth-most profitable starter in MLB, bringing in $1,013 for $100 players, as the Phils won 16 of his 21 starts.
From a betting perspective, the highlight came when Worley cashed as a +161 dog against the Braves on Sept. 28. With Worley on the mound, the Philliess never laid more than -195.
Worley benefits from all the attention showered on Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. His most recent spring start also should help limit his buzz. He gave up 11 runs, five earned, in four innings against Minnesota last Wednesday as the Phillies simply wanted him to get his work in.
Anibal Sanchez, Florida Marlins
Sanchez will certainly be motivated, as he becomes a free agent at season’s end.
Did you know that only Brandon Morrow, Zach Greinke and Clayton Kershaw struck out more batters per inning last year than Sanchez?
Sanchez appears to have put his shoulder concerns behind him.
The 28-year-old right-hander suffered from a lack of run support last year, ranking 82nd in the majors. The retooled Marlins should provide more support. Newly-signed shortstop Jose Reyes is the reigning NL batting champ and improves the team’s defense up the middle.
Henderson Alvarez, Toronto Blue Jays
He won’t turn 22 until April 18, but this 6-foot-1 right-hander could pitch like a No. 2 starter this season. Alvarez throws in the mid-90s and has a power sinker with sharp downward movement. He can fool batters with his changeup as well.
After a rapid rise through the farm system, Alvarez went 1-3 with a 3.53 ERA in 10 starts for Toronto last season. He pitched at least six innings in each of his final eight outings.
Alvarez, who spent the offseason refining his slider, walked just eight batters in 63 2-3 innings last year.
Ride him early while he’s still under the radar.
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