MLB Picks Previews 2012 – NL East

Predicted Order of Finish
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Washington Nationals
4. Miami Marlins
5. New York Mets

Philadelphia Phillies (102-60 in 2011) – The Phillies have won 97 and 102 games the last two seasons and it’s remarkable they didn’t win the World Series either time. They look even better for 2012 with the addition of hard-throwing closer Jonathon Papelbon to an already stocked pitching staff.

The Phillies have a pitching staff for the ages in Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee. The 34-year-old Halladay anchors the staff off a 17-8 season, with a 2.35 ERA and 220 strikeouts in 233 innings. Since 2000 he has topped 235 innings five times. He is a remarkable ace, not walking anyone, a great strikeout pitcher, and a workhorse. The only concern, possibly, is age as he will turn 35-years-old in May.

28-year-old Cole Hamels (14-9, 216 innings, 194 strikeouts, 3.01 ERA) has been strong, adding a cutter alongside his outstanding changeup. Then there’s 33-year-old Cliff Lee, who went 17-8 with a 2.40 ERA, fanning 238 in 232 innings and just 42 walks. Throw in 27-year-old righty Kyle Kendrick (8-6, 3.22 ERA) and Vance Worley (11-3, 3.01 ERA) this team has more than enough to roll through the summer.

The bullpen won’t be needed much with Lee and Halladay piling up eight innings per start, but has a one-two punch of Antonio Bastardo (58 IP, 2.64), Chad Qualls and Papelbon, who saved 31 games in Boston with a 2.94 ERA fanning 87 in 64 innings with only 10 walks. This is an easy homerun park that can be tough on pitchers, but they appear to have no weak spots. This pitching staff was No. 1 in baseball last season with a 3.02 ERA.

The offense was No. 1 in runs scored in 2007, but slipped to No. 7 in 2010 and No. 13 last season. They probably should have been better with all this talent. The infield has age concerns with 33-year-old SS Jimmy Rollins (.268, 30 steals, 16 homers), 36-year-old 3B Placido Polanco (.277), 33-year-old 2B Chase Utley (.259, 11 HRs), a former star who is battling knee problems, and 33-year old catcher Carlos Ruiz (.371 OBP).

There are no concerns at first base, as the Phillies have 32-year-old 1B Ryan Howard (.253, 33 homers, 116 RBI). He still has the capability to hit 50 home runs, especially in tiny Citizens Bank Park. There’s more speed with 31-year-old CF Shane Victorino (.279, 19 HRs, 17 RBI) and RF Hunter Pence (.314, 22 HRs), so this offense is loaded for Manager Charlie Manuel.

The bottom line is that Philadelphia can score plenty of runs, play good defense and this pitching staff is stocked with four veteran aces. The Phillies will get back to the postseason and should dominate the NL East. Philadelphia is the favorite in Las Vegas to win the World Series – and should be.

Atlanta Braves (89-73 in 2011) – It’s the last year for Chipper! Chipper Jones is retiring after this campaign, but he’s one of the lone veterans on an interesting young team that had a winning record both home and away last season.  Pitching carried the load, ranking No. 4 in all of baseball in team ERA (3.48) while the offense struggled, ranking No. 22 in runs, No. 26 in batting average (.243), No. 26 in on-base percentage and No. 21 in slugging.

They look for better balance, but can that offense improve? The lineup is pretty much the same. 39-year-old 3B Chipper Jones (18 HRs, .282) is off a fine season and will have his farewell tour, and teams with 22-year-old first baseman Freddie Freeman (21 HRs, 76 RBI) to give the Braves a terrific punch at the corners. 32-year-old 2B Dan Uggla (36 HRs, 82 RBI) is off a monster season and provides plenty of punch, while they have a new look at shortstop with 22-year-old Tyler Pastornicky, who hit .314 at Double A and Triple A last summer.

The outfield should be better with LF Martin Prado (13 HRs, 57 RBI, .260) reliable, RF Jason Heyward (14 HRs, .227) is still learning the game at age 22 and CF Michael Bourn (.278, 22 steals) is in a contract year.

While the offense looks balanced and a little better, the pitching staff looks very strong again. Aging Derek Lowe is gone, which is addition by subtraction. That means the Braves can throw a one, two, three punch of Tim Hudson (16-10, 3.22 ERA, 214 IP), 25-year-old Tommy Hanson (11-7, 3.60, 142 Ks in 130 IP) and 26-year-old Jair Jurrjens (13-6, 2.96).

In addition, they like Mike Minor (5-2, 82 IP) and Brandon Beachy (7-3, 141 IP, 125 hits, 169 Ks), plus have young Kris Medlen waiting in the wings. Craig Kimbrel returns from his NL Rookie of the Year season with 46 saves and a 2.10 ERA to lead the bullpen that should be one of the best in baseball. There is depth and talent with lefties Robert Fish, Eric O’Flaherty (0.98, 73 IP) and Jonny Venters (1.84), plus Randall Delgado (2.83) and Julio Teheran. Good luck, NL hitters! No one really has a chance in the NL to catch the Phillies, unless injuries to the Philadelphia aces crop up. In which case, the door could be open to a sleeper team like the Braves to be playing in October.

Washington Nationals (81-81 in 2011) – Washington impressed last season, rebuilding but quietly getting to .500, a strong 44-36 at home. How? They play in a big park and finished No. 7 in pitching ERA (3.58), without potential ace Stephen Strasburg (just five starts). But that big park giveth and taketh away, with the offense at No. 24 in runs scored, No. 27 in batting average (.242), and No. 25 in OBP and No. 22 in slugging.

Can this offense improve? It starts with 30-year-old 3B Michael Morse, who hit .303 with a .550 slugging percentage and 31 home runs. But getting someone on base is a concern. They have a little table setter in 26-year-old SS Ian Desmond, who stole 25 bases though he had a poor .298 OBP. 2B Danny Espinosa belted 21 homers, but hit just .236. 3B Ryan Zimmerman (12 HRs, .298) anchors the infield, but battled injuries and had just 395 at bats.

Big free agent RF Jayson Werth (20 HRs) was mostly a bust, hitting .232, which will happen in a big park like this. CF Roger Bernadina has a better glove than bat and C/RF Bryce Harper, a top pick, isn’t quite ready for the big leagues yet. 2B Mark DeRosa, 3B Mark Teahen and OF Rick Ankiel all come aboard as free agents to help the offense.

While the offense still has weakness, the pitching staff looks pretty good. Ace Stephen Strasburg is on pace to start opening day, though he is going to be capped at around 160 innings this season. Newcomer lefty Gio Gonzalez comes over from Oakland and went 16-12 with a 3.12 ERA, and should like pitching in this park (as well as not facing a DH). Righty Edwin Jackson (12-9, 3.79) also comes aboard, a strong young arm and a good strikeout pitcher.

Former Yankee Chien-Ming Wang (4-3, 4.04) has the kind of sinker that would be perfect for this park, if he can stay healthy and give them more innings, while John Lannan (10-13, 3.70) is above average. The bullpen has good arms in closer Drew Storen (6-3, 43 saves, 2.75), along with middle men Tyler Clippard and Sean Burnett, plus they add righty Brad Lidge. Once again, the pitching staff will be very good (and could be great), but this offense has some weak spots. Totals bettors may want to look at the Nationals UNDER the total, especially at home in their cavernous park.

Miami Marlins (78-84 in 2011) – The Marlins have new name, a new manager and a new stadium. Unfortunately, they have the same budget, limited talent and no pitching.  New manager Ozzie Guillen will bring plenty of fireworks on the field and at postgame press conferences, especially when he sees all the errors this young team will make and all the walks the pitching will allow. He could go ballistic by the fifth inning!

A lot will depend on the health of former ace righty 28-year-old Josh Johnson (3-1, 1.64 ERA), who gave them 60 brilliant innings last season before shoulder problems shut him down. Spring training reports have been very encouraging, hitting 96 MPH on the gun and looking sharp.

The new manager had better hope Johnson stays healthy, because the rest of the staff has lefty Mark Buehrle (13-9, 3.59), Ricky Nolasco (10-12, 4.67), Anibal Sanchez (8-9, 3.67) and wild man Carlos Zambrano (9-7, 4.82). Buehrle is 33-years-old and allowed more hits than innings pitched and his strikeouts were way down (109 in 205 innings). A move to the NL was a good one, though he doesn’t know the NL hitters or how this new park plays.

Sanchez has great stuff and fanned 202 in 196 innings, but Nolasco was pounded for 244 hits in 206 innings, while Zambrano is a powder keg and inconsistent, walking 56 in 145 innings and opponents hit .277 off him. At age 30, his best years are probably behind him. Wade LeBlanc (5-6, 4.63), Brad Hand (1-8, 4.20) and Alex Sanabia are also young arms in the mix.

The bullpen has a new look with closer Heath Bell (43 saves), and set-up men Juan Oviedo (1-4), Mike Dunn and Randy Choate. Bell’s 132 saves since the start of the 2009 season are the most in baseball. Of concern is that his strikeout numbers dropped significantly and lefties hit .283 off Bell, as opposed to .164 for righties.

The weak offense was No. 23 in runs, No. 22 in batting averages, No. 16 in OBP and No. 19th in slugging last summer. The infield has a pair of five-tooled talents in 3B: Hanley Ramirez and SS Jose Reyes (.337, 16 triples). Reyes is a dynamic leadoff hitter who won the NL batting title last season. Ramirez battled injuries and hit just 10 homers and a .243 average with 20 steals. Both of these guys will be fun to watch – if healthy.

2B Omar Infante (.276) is average at second, while Matt Dominguez and Greg Dobbs will battle at the hot corner. 28-year-old 1B Gaby Sanchez (.266, 19 HRs) is solid and drew 74 walks to lead the team. The outfield has a 22-year-old budding star in RF Giancarlo Stanton (.262), who smacked 34 homers with 87 RBI, along with 26-year-old CF Emilio Bonifacio (40 steals, .296) and LF Logan Morrison (23 HRs, .247). This offense should be much better, and the pitching staff badly needs a guy like Johnson to stay healthy, but that has been a major problem of late. This is an intriguing young team that could top 80 wins with a healthy Johnson, or become dysfunctional if Ozzie flips out too often and hurts the confidence of the kids.

NY Mets (77-85 in 2011) – The Mets don’t mind spending money, but they certainly haven’t got their money’s worth the last five years. There are some big names for 2012, but they are past their prime – just like the organization. The pitching staff ranked No. 21 in all of baseball last season and has question marks again.

They hope lefty Johan Santana (11-9, 2.98 ERA in 2010) still has ace stuff, but at age 33 his shoulder is shaky after logging a ton of innings the last ten years. Santana missed the entire 2011 season following surgery to repair a torn capsule in his shoulder and even in spring training Santana was battling shoulder problems and they were careful with his workload. He is a big unknown. This is an organization that overpaid for Santana and Pedro Martinez and didn’t come close to getting their money’s worth.

28-year-old Mike Pelfrey (7-13, 4.74) started 33 games last summer, but was very hittable and isn’t a strikeout pitcher. Starters Jon Niese (11-11, 4.40), knuckleballer R.A. Dickey (8-13, 3.28) and Dillon Gee (13-6, 4.43) are marginal, but that team has few other options.

If they have a late lead there are more question marks. 32-year-old Frank Francisco (1-4, 17 saves, 3.55 ERA) had a good second half, but his drop in strikeout rate and poor home run rate (7 in 50 innings) is a concern. The middle relief is average at best, with Jon Rauch (5-4, 11 saves, 4.85), Ramon Ramirez (2.62) and Tim Byrdak (3.82). Mets’ relievers posted a 4.33 ERA and finished with 24 blown saves!

The offense can hit and get on base (No. 6 in batting average and on-base percentage), but ranked No. 12 in runs scored and No. 18 in slugging. The infield has 29-year-old 3B David Wright (.254, 14 HRs, 13 steals), who struggled to stay healthy while getting just 389 at bats. They can build around Wright and 25-year-old lefty 1B Ike Davis (.302), who quietly had a .383 OBP and 7 homers in 129 at bats. They would love to see him do that for a full campaign.

2B Daniel Murphy (.320) is another young player (age 26) who impressed in 391 at bats, though he has little power (6 HRs), along with SS Ruben Tejada (.284). They could use a few big boppers in this lineup that is good at getting on base. Part of the problem is the ball park, which is better for pitchers. That’s been the main reason LF Jason Bay (.245, 12 HRs) has seen his numbers plummet since leaving the American League.

26-year-old RF Lucas Duda (.292) hit 10 homers in 301 at bats and is the lone young player in an outfield that also has 34-year-old CF Andres Torres (.221). Torres had a terrific 2010 campaign and then fell off the map last season. They will start him in the leadoff role, but that will change if he has another season like 2011. The Mets were odd last season in that they were poor at home (34-47), but 43-38 on the road! That’s more likely an anomaly, but another losing season wouldn’t be a surprise.