MLB Pick Previews 2012 – NL Central

Predicted Order of Finish
1. St. Louis
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Cincinnati Reds
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Houston Astros

St. Louis (90-72 in 2011) – Are the defending champs in for a fall without Albert? Pujols is gone, along with manager Tony LaRussa. However, they get back ace Adam Wainwright, who missed 2011 for Tommy John surgery. It’s tough to find fault with an offense that was so strong last summer, fifth in batting average and runs scored, third in on-base percentage and sixth in slugging.

Even without Pujols they still have 1B slugger Lance Berkman (34 HRs, .301, 94 RBI), postseason hero 3B David Freese (10 HRs, .297, World Series MVP) and catcher Yadier Molina (14 HRs, .305) to provide an offensive punch. 2B Daniel Descalso (.264) would be better in a platoon role, while 34-year old SS Rafael Furcal is far past his prime. In 2011, he posted a career-worst .231 batting average.

At least the outfield has more pop with 32-year old LF Matt Holliday (22 HRs, 75 RBI, .296), who had a strong season despite injuries and missing games. He played in just 124 games and had a solid .388 OBP. CF Jon Jay (.297) had 24 doubles, ten homers, and the Cardinals add 34-year old RF Carlos Beltran (.300, 22 HRs), who had a fine season with the Mets getting 520 at bats and 84 RBI. Beltran actually had a better on-base percentage than Pujols in 2011 (.385-.366), so this lineup looks like one of the best in the NL.

Three of La Russa’s longtime coaches also departed, including highly regarded pitching coach Dave Duncan. New pitching coach Derek Lilliquist gets to see the comeback of 6-foot-7 Adam Wainwright, one of the NL’s top starters from 2009-10. Wainwright went 20-11 with 2.42 ERA in 2010. Veteran 36-year old righty Chris Carpenter (11-9, 237 IP, 3.45 ERA) was a postseason hero and workhorse. He went 12-2 with a 3.01 ERA during the rest of the regular season and postseason but is battling a nerve condition to start this season.

Righty Kyle Lohse (14-8, 3.39 ERA) was a big surprise, staying healthy and walking just 42 in 188 innings, while lefty Jaime Garcia won 13 games for the second straight season and reduced his walk rate (2.3) by more than one per nine innings. Veteran Jake Westbrook (4.66) is penciled in, but has marginal staff and opponents hit .290 off him.

LaRussa and Duncan were masters at utilizing bullpen depth and they leave the new coaching staff with a ton of reliable arms with closer Jason Motte (2.25 ERA, 9 saves, 18 holds), Fernando Salas (24 saves, 2.28), Lance Lynn (3.12), Eduardo Sanchez and Kyle McClellan (12-7, 141 IP). Rookie Shelby Miller is from Texas and has a terrific fastball in this deep far system.

From 97 wins in 2002, 85 in 2003, 105 in 2004, 100 in 2005 and its first World Series championship in 24 years in 2006 and another last season, the Cardinals have used talent, defense, good pickups and a great farm system to stay competitive. They made it to the World Series in 2004, too, reached 100 wins in 2005 and overcame injuries in 2006 and 2011 for remarkable runs to World Series titles. For 2012, the team will hit and their looks to be enough pitching depth for 90+ wins and another postseason – and from there, as Cardinal fans know, anything can happen.

Milwaukee Brewers (96-66 in 2011) – Lost in the shuffle of the Cardinals surprising run to the World Series is the fact that the Brewers actually won the NL Central with an impressive (and overlooked) 96-win campaign. They lost slugger Prince Fielder and his 38 homers, but return a lot of talent to an offense that was 11th in runs, 5th in slugging and 10th in on-base percentage in baseball, plus an outstanding starting rotation. They were a dominant team at home (57-24), but a losing road record (39-42), so there are some flaws.

The Brewers’ top pitchers Zach Greinke and Yovani Gallardo produced 33 wins and an ERA of 3.65 combined, plus Shaun Marcum rounds out a solid starting trio. The 26-year old Gallardo is an ace, off a 17-10 campaign with a 3.52 ERA in 207 innings fanning 207. The 28-year old Greinke (16-6, 3.83, 201 Ks) settled in nicely as did the 30-year old Marcum (13-7, 3.54). The trio eats innings, strikeouts out plenty and keeps them in every game.

Veteran lefty Randy Wolf (13-10, 3.69) was out of baseball a few years ago after leaving the Dodgers, but keeps throwing well and threw 212 innings, while Chris Narveson (11-8, 4.42) holds down the No. 5 slot. Their three aces made 33 starts each, while the other two made 28 starts, so it was a durable staff. Marco Estrada (4.08 ERA) and Mike McClendon (2.63) provide middle relief along with Francisco Rodriguez (1.86) for closer John Axford (46 saves, 1.95 ERA, 86 Ks in 73+ innings).

While all the focus was on the loss of fielder, they still have 2011 National League MVP LF Ryan Braun (33 HRs, 38 doubles, 111 RBI, .332 average, 33 steals). CF Carlos Gomez (.225) is a weak spot offensively though RF Nyjer Morgan (.304, 13 steals) gets on base but has little pop.

The offense, however, picks up a pair of key pieces for the infield. Alex Gonzal was signed to play shortstop after the team lost out on Jimmy Rollins who re-signed with the Philadelphia Phillies. Gonzalez hit 15 home runs for the Atlanta Braves in 2011 in 149 games, while they nabbed third baseman Aramis Ramirez (26 HRs, .307) from the Chicago Cubs.

Ramirez will play third, which pushes Mat Gamel to first, a top prospect who has done all his damage in the minor leagues but has yet to make the jump to the big leagues. 2B Rickie Weeks (20 HRs, .269) is terrific and catcher Jonathan Lucroy (12 HRs, .269) provides more offense from behind the plate. All in all look for this to be one of the top offenses in the league again, especially at home. In a wide open division, the Brewers will be in contention to repeat as division champs again. They have to learn to win on the road, however, to take the next step.

Cincinnati Reds (79-83 in 2011) – The young Reds were competitive much of last season before a second half fade, finishing with a losing record. They were probably a little better than that record suggests, 7th in baseball in runs scored, 9th in on-base percentage. Too much young pitching did them in as they were 20th in team ERA.

The Reds look better for 2012. The infield is very strong, anchored by star 1B 28-year old Joey Votto (.309, 29 HRs, 103 RBI), who had a stellar .416 on –base percentage. 2B Brandon Phillips (.300, 18 HRs) provides more pop and stole 18 bases, while veteran 3B Scott Rolen (5 HRs) has had a strong spring and 26-year old SS Zack Cozart is back after going through Tommy John surgery. He hit .324in just 11 games before getting injured.

The Reds have a terrific prospect in 23-year old catcher Devin Mesoraco, who can hit and throw out runners, while Ryan Hanigan (.267, 6 HRs) is reliable if the kid isn’t yet ready. The outfield is impressive with 24-year old RF Jay Bruce (.256, 32 HRs, 97 RBI), LF Ryan Ludwick (.237) and CF Drew Stubbs (.243, 15 HRs, 40 steals). Stubbs was only caught ten times, but had a whopping 205 strikeouts and can struggle against right-handed pitching.

The offense will be very good, but what about the pitching? This is a young staff with above-average potential. 26-year old righty Johnny Cueto (9-5, 2.31) didn’t have a lot of wins but was outstanding, throwing 156 innings in 24 starts and is their young ace. They got 24-year old Mat Latos (9-14, 3.47) from the Padres, who has excellent stuff but benefitted from the huge outfield at Petco Park. Latos had a 2.95 ERA in 27 Petco starts the past two seasons combined, compared to 3.40 in 35 on the road. There’s no denying his stuff and he fanned 185 in 194 innings last summer.

Veteran righty Bronson Arroyo (9-12, 5.07) is passed his prime, but is still a decent starter, much better on righties than lefties. He surrendered a whopping 46 homers last year (and only 45 walks!). Young Mike Leake (12-9, 3.86) and Homer Bailey (9-7, 4.43) round out a quality rotation with little experience to go along with enviable overall talent.

Adding middlemen Ryan Madson and highly touted Sean Marshall should improve the bullpen depth alongside Bill Bray (2.98) and Sam LeCure (3.71). While the Cardinals and Brewers lost some key pieces, the Reds have assembled a talented young group that appears to be on the rise in the NL Central. Cincy should be able to creep over the .500 mark and has a good farm system that could help add some key pieces in mid-season if they are in contention.

Chicago Cubs (71-91 in 2011) – Yes, the Cubs did win the World Series — in 1908. So it’s been 100+ years, which is where the term “Long suffering Cubs’ fans comes from.” And if anybody knows about long suffering fans it’s Chicago’s new general manager, Theo Epstein, who helped win two World Series building the Red Sox before undertaking this new challenge.

He inherits a team that finished in fifth place, ranked 25th in baseball in team ERA , 18th in runs and was dreadful in the field. The kid GM has a lot of work to do. The infield is young and there will be growing pains. 22-year old Starlin Castro (22 steals) is at shortstop and impressed with a .307 average, 10 home runs and 66 RBIs last year, but has made 27 and 29 errors the last two seasons, numbers that are far too high.

1B Brian Lahair is a newcomer who won the Pacific Coast League MVP award last season for driving in 109 runs and hitting 38 homers for Triple-A Iowa. Second base has 26-year old Darwin Barney (.276, 9 steals), who doesn’t get on base much, while Ian Stewart and Blake DeWitt will compete for third base. Stewart comes over from Colorado (48 games) while Dewitt his .265, 5 homers and 26 RBIs for the Cubs last summer. Catcher Geovany Soto (.228) hit 17 homers but struggles to get on base.

And speaking of shaky defense, LF Alfonso Soriano (26 HRs, .244) provides offense but is not good in the field, while David DeJesus (.240, 10 homers) comes over from Oakland and will play right field. They will go with CF Marlon Byrd who has a fine glove but is average as an offensive force. They will be in the middle of the pack offensively in baseball and can only get better defensively – they hope.

The pitching staff led the NL in walks allowed and they finally tired of Carlos Zambrano and shipped him out. They have one reliable starter in Matt Garza (10-10, 3.32 ERA, 198 IP), a terrific strikeout pitcher (197) and a guy who can eat innings. Beyond that, though, the rotation drops off sharply. Righty Ryan Dempster (10-14, 4.80 ERA) is aging while Chris Volstad comes over from the Marlins where he was just 5-13 with a 4.89 ERA in 29 starts. And that was in a friendly pitcher’s park – Wrigley Field will be a challenge for a guy who allowed opponents to hit .289 and gave up 23 homers in 165 innings.

Jeff Samardzija (8-4, 2.97) and Travis Wood are battling for a starting job. Wood comes over from the Reds where he didn’t impress (6-6, 4.84 ERA) and Samardzija (88 innings) didn’t start a game last year and is better suited for middle relief. Arms for middle relief are Pat Maholm (6-14, 3.66 ERA for Pittsburgh,) veteran Rodrigo Lopez (6-6, 4.42 ERA) and Randy Wells (7-6, 4.99 ERA).

Carlos Marmol gets the nod at closer, and while he saved 34 games he had a 4.01 ERA and walked 48 in 74 innings. Don’t be surprised if they have to find another closer, or use the 29-year old Marmol as trade bait before the deadline. This team has a lot of holes and is in Year 1 of the rebuilding job under a new GM that will take several years. They will be closer to 90 losses than 90 wins.

Pittsburgh Pirates (72-90 in 2011) – The young Pirates finished fourth in the six-team NL Central last summer, but still lost 90 games with a losing record (36-45) both home and away. There was little to get excited about with a team that ranked 11th in the NL in team ERA and the offense was worse, 27th in runs scored in all of baseball, 24th in OBP and 27th in slugging. They were bad across the board.

The pitching staff decided to bring in some veterans with lefty Eric Bedard and A.J. Burnett. The 35-year old Burnett (5.15 ERA, 11-11) was hittable with the Yankees, but is battling injuries (orbital bone) and figures to return sometime around May 1. The 33-year old lefty Bedard was 5-9 with the Mariners but had a 3.62 ERA in 129 innings and 125 Ks. He was a good gamble and appears healthy enough to start opening day.

29-year old Jeff Karstens (9-9, 162 innings) can shift to a No. 2 or 3 role and was very good with a 3.38 ERA and only 33 walks. Beyond that depth and quality are major problems with James McDonald (9-9, 4.21), Kevin Correia (12-11, 4.79) and Charlie Morton (10-10, 3.83).

The Pirates’ bullpen has the potential to be very good with Joel Hanrahan (40 saves, 1.83), who allowed only one home run, and Evan Meek (3.48) closing out games. Middle relief looks above average with Jason Grilli (2.48), Chris Resop (4.39) and Daniel McCutchen. The biggest concern is control as the Pittsburgh staff walked 535 batters, fifth most in the NL.

The offense is fairly anemic, especially when you realize they play in a hitter friendly park. The old joke is, “Everyone can score runs in this stadium except the Pirates.” This offense lacks both speed and power. CF Andrew McCutchen (23 steals, 23 homers, 89 RBI) is a good player, but doesn’t have much help in the outfield with LF Alex Presley (.298, 4 HRs) and RF Jose Tabata (.266, 21 HRs). 30-year old CF Nate McLouth will serve as the team’s fourth outfielder, who returns to Pittsburgh after spending three years in Atlanta.

The infield has 1B Garrett Jones (16 HRs, .243) and 2B Neil Walker (12 HRs, .273), along with 25-year old 3B Pedro Alvarez (.191, 4 HRs) and 36-year old Catcher Rod Barajas (.230, 16 HRs). Replacing Ronny Cedeno at shortstop is 33-year old Clint Barmes, who comes over from Colorado where he hit .244 with 12 homers and a .312 OBP. He will help the defense but do nothing for this below average offense. It’s hard to see the Pirates improving much, an organization moving sideways more than forwards.

Houston Astros (56-106 in 2011) – The young Astros were dreadful in 2011, the only club to lose 100 games. They were 26th in runs scored, 23rd in OBP and dead last in team ERA (4.51) in the NL. This staff walked the second most batters in the National League.

The staff really doesn’t look that bad on paper. 33-year old lefty Wandy Rodriguez (11-11, 3.49 ERA) allowed fewer hits than innings pitched and fanned 166 in 191 innings. He’s a good anchor to have atop the rotation, but at his age he will likely be traded around the All Star break. 27-year old Bud Norris (6-11) pitched better than that record, with a 3.77 ERA allowing 177 hits in 186 innings while fanning 176.

Houston signed veteran Livan Hernandez to eat innings, who had a 4.47 ERA and an 8-13 record pitching for Washington last season. That was a big park, so he should struggle at home in 2012. J.A. Happ (6-15) has been awful since leaving the Phillies and had a 5.35 ERA last season walking 83 in 156 innings, a good pitcher to look at over the total, while 21-year old Jordan Lyles (2-8, 5.36) has upside but may be better suited for long relief.

The relief staff is very good behind David Carpenter (2.93) and Wilton Lopez (2.79) for closer Brett Myers. Myers was a starter last season and was 7-14 with a 4.46 ERA in 216 innings, but moves back to the role he had with the 2007 Philadelphia Phillies. Former Red Sox starter Kyle Wieland was added, who can start or relieve but has marginal stuff.

New general manager Jeff Luhnow has made some moves to try and upgrade the offense but it won’t be nearly enough. New shortstop 27-year old Jed Lowrie comes over from Boston and has a decent bat, hitting .252 with 6 homers and 14 doubles in half a season. Lowrie, who is a switch-hitter, has mainly been hitting second this spring. Houston had two players who stole over 30 bases but both are gone, so this offense needs to find new speed and ANY power!

3B Jimmy Paredes (.286) and 2B Jose Altuve (.276) played well in limited action and get the full time nod. 1B/LF Carlos Lee rounds out the infield and belted 18 homers and 38 doubles while hitting .275, a quality bat in the middle of the lineup – if they don’t trade him. The outfield has LF J.D. Martinez (.274), CF Jordan Schafer (.245) and RF Brian Bogusevic (.287, 4 HRs), all who played limited time last season, so there are a lot of question marks.

Chris Snyder was brought in to back up and mentor Jason Castro (2 HRs, .205) behind the plate, so this looks like the worst offense in baseball. And with a pitching staff that has more holes than solid performers, Houston won’t be looking at a winning season but will be trying to avoid 100 losses again.